FPL has launched: My first impressions on pricing and value
From defenders to forwards, what is the landscape?
Alright, readers.
FPL is fully back after we enjoyed Monday’s launch and saw all the prices.
We also had the opportunity to try a new UI, which proved to be a frustrating experience if you, like me, are accustomed to creating and setting up your line-ups on the desktop.
It’s a reminder that the universe requires balance—because from what I’ve seen, the prices are generally quite good this season. There’s also a larger pool of players, and the fixtures are mostly open to interpretation, so there could be more variety in the game even early on in the season (but don’t bet on it just yet).
Anyway, today I plan to review all the positions and identify prices that have caught my interest for various reasons. As we gather more information about transfers and pre-season minutes, we will refine our GW1 pool of viable picks.
What appears good now might not be viable in Gameweek 1.
As the second premium article this week, I’m preparing the first edition of this season’s Thought Process series. I would like to discuss some additional changes that were announced this year and how they may affect our overall strategy and decision-making.
Note: Let’s not consider fixtures at this stage, too much. I will instead focus on the player’s value compared to others.
Defenders: We have a new cap
Key information about premium FPL defenders is that they are now capped at £6.0m, and there are nine of them.
This decision creates interesting dynamics, requiring you to think carefully about which one(s) to choose, as there are more routes to points after the introduction of defensive contributions and subtle changes in the bonus points system.
Read: Defensive contributions in FPL: Which players will benefit the most?
Additionally, some big hitters are now in highly exposed teams, so we might see the 'big-in-the-back' strategy gaining popularity during the pre-season.
Interestingly, you need to pay the premium for each of the Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, Virgil van Dijk, and Andy Robertson. It’s such an interesting discussion that I’ll likely publish the whole article about it.
Now, let’s move to the £4.0m category and go upwards from there.
Once again, you have plenty of wiggle room when it comes to defence. There will be budget DEFs playing close to 90 minutes. As expected, the newly promoted teams will have several (as always, monitor pre-season minutes closely):
Leeds: Jaka Bijol, Joe Rodon or Gabriel Gudmundsson
Burnley: Quilindschy Hartman, Maxime Estève, or Bashir Humphreys
Sunderland: Dennis Cirkin or Reinildo
We might even see some unexpected picks like Luka Vuškovič, James Hill, or Pedro Lima later in the season.
Similar to the last one, the £4.5M tier seems to have several players with great value.
Let’s consider West Ham, for example. Since Graham Potter's arrival in Gameweek 21 last season, they have ranked 10th for xG conceded, which is a top signal for me at the moment, especially given their attractive opening fixtures. Both their wing-backs, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Malick Diouf, look pretty appealing.
Brighton’s Maxim De Cuyper is already a fan favourite on social media, and rightly so:
Then there are Ezri Konsa, Adrien Truffert, Michael Kayode, Spurs defenders not called Pedro Porro*, or some Palace, Fulham, United, and Wolves players. Plenty to choose from.
* I will watch the Spurs carefully during the pre-season, so I can tell you where the value really is.
The standout player in the £5m bracket is Antonee Robinson, who could be slightly undervalued, considering he was the top all-round defender in the last Premier League season. He is likely to earn points both for his attacking output and defensive contributions.
For the same price, you can also buy Neco Williams, Dan Burn, and Tino Livramento, who seem like good value for money. There are also potentially overpriced players, such as Keane Lewis-Potter, Malo Gusto, and Levi Colwill. Or Vitalij Mykolenko and Jake O'Brien, who could be in both categories mentioned above. I would need to do much more analysis to be certain... Also, I have zero interest in United’s defenders in this tier.
Finally, big-hitters priced at £5.5m:
Pedro Porro, Lewis Hall, Nikola Milenkovič, Murillo, Jarrad Branthwaite, or Reece James. Also, the second wave of City’s and Arsenal’s defenders. Nothing much to argue.
Overall, I believe defenders are priced reasonably this season, and it’s difficult to exploit obvious pricing errors, except perhaps for some names in the £4.5 category, like De Cuyper.
Midfielders: You can already spot some edge
This is where the fun begins.