English Set-Piece league, wasteful Mateta, rapid City and other trends (+ how to utilize them)

Looking at some interesting Premier League/FPL stuff

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Today, I’ll continue a trend that’s been ongoing for a couple of weeks here on Data Dribble: a detailed yet somewhat broader look at the current FPL landscape.

Since this is the final week before another international break, let’s take one more look at what’s happening right now so we’re well-prepared for Gameweek 8.

At this early stage of the season, each additional gameweek adds a significant chunk of information. Moving from GW5 to GW6 increased our sample size by 20%, and from GW6 to GW7 by a further ~17%. Put another way, by the end of GW7, we’ll have 40% more data than we did at GW5.

We’re still in the early days, and GWs 10 to 12 are when the party really starts.

Okay, let’s dive straight in:

Leeds United: They’ve nearly stopped Bournemouth, interesting…

One of the early-season shifts we’re noticing is that it’s not just as simple as “let’s target all the promoted teams” anymore.

With Burnley, we can still do that. So far, they can’t stop teams that perform well offensively, and there’s no indication they will improve significantly unless Florentino Luis turns into a prime Kante.

While there are positive vibes around Sunderland’s defence, most of the games they played were against sides that:

• have some serious issues generating dangerous chances

• just appointed Ange Postecoglou, who rotated his team, and the players still hadn’t had proper time to absorb his philosophy

Their early fixture run was quite favourable from a defensive standpoint, and they were quite lucky in some of the games. Or better put, partly lucky, partly saved by Robin Roefs, who is currently the best shot-stopper for attempts inside the box.

While I’m not entirely convinced they could keep up throughout the whole season, I do think that their £4.0m defenders are a good value. On the other hand, you shouldn’t be too concerned about this match-up when analysing fixture runs of your desired picks.

So far, it seems that one-dimensional teams will struggle against Sunderland. They have conceded the least xG from slow positional attacks—when you let them sit deep and lack a solid plan to break down that low block, it might turn into a nasty game. However, if you can utilise quick transitions, press well, and create opportunities from set-pieces, they eventually won’t sustain that pressure.

Manchester United next week... that’s another team facing problems in the final third of the pitch. They created a large share of their expected goals against Burnley, played against a 10-man Chelsea, and most of the xG in that Brentford match came from Benjamin Šeško’s single opportunity that led to three shots in quick succession.

Then there was Bryan Mbeumo’s excellent chance that resulted in a penalty. When it comes to United, we rely on individual quality rather than on a functional system.

Benjamin Šeško against Brentford

Sure, Sunderland aren’t quite the Southampton and Leicester of last season, but I really start to believe when I see them face solid opposition during GWs 9 to 15.

Then there are Leeds. Let’s forget about the Arsenal clash—these sorts of games happen. But this is interesting:

• Everton: 0.80 xG conceded

• Newcastle: 0.46

• Fulham: 0.85

• Wolves: 1.78 (of which 0.68 comes from a single chance by Ladislav Krejčí)

• Bournemouth: 0.82

They seem to be a tough nut to crack.

They appear to be vulnerable to set pieces, but aside from that, they look quite solid.

If you own Spurs defenders, I don’t think it’s a disaster of a match-up, though, as Frank’s boys pose some set-piece threat, and Leeds’ attack isn’t particularly strong.

However, when it comes to Spurs’ offensive players, the ceiling probably isn’t very high.

Leeds United: Why this might work

Crystal Palace: Counter-attacking beasts and Mateta’s finishing

While most of GW5’s games were quite dull, this time we experienced several memorable battles. Crystal Palace versus Liverpool was one of them.

Crystal Palace 2:1 Liverpool

• xG: 2.92 vs 2.14

• Touches inside the box: 33 vs 26

• Shots inside the box: 12 vs 13

• xThreat: 1.87 vs 1.59

• Possession %: 21.7 vs 78.3

Palace taking an early lead (look at Sarr’s positioning in the box) and then sitting deep and countering was a sight to behold, with both the Senegalese and Jean-Philippe Mateta posing a constant threat and racking up at least five good chances between them.

Mateta has scored just a single open play goal this season — plus a penalty in Gameweek 2 — although there were enough chances to accumulate much more.

That raises the question.

Does he have long-term issues with finishing, or is it simply a result of the small sample size?

The answer is quite obvious.