DGW36 Thought Process: Always honour your analysis, mate

I won't make this mistake again...

ℹ️ There are fewer than three weeks until the season ends.

What does this mean for your premium subscriptions, and what’s the summer plan? See the article below (spoiler alert: you don’t have to do anything):

What's coming this summer on Data Dribble (+ subscription info)

---

Alright, guys, let’s cut to the chase.

The only time I tilt playing FPL is when I’m convinced I made a mistake. Late clean-sheet wipeouts, penalty misses, injuries and red cards, none of this hurts too much anymore after all those years. A good old decision-making error, on the other hand…

All the more so if the mistake is well documented.

In last week’s articles, I was raving about what a great opportunity it is to stack Bournemouth’s defence for their home clash against Crystal Palace, citing several compelling arguments for going there*. On top of that, it was a beautiful opportunity for my own team, as all of Marcos Senesi (£5.2m), James Hill (£4.2m), and Marcus Tavernier (£5.4m) were low-owned differentials.

*Most of it then panned out: Senesi’s attacking threat, a strong likelihood of a clean sheet, Palace rotating, DEFCONs for both Senesi and Hill, etc. Cheat code of a game.

Tipping the scales the other way was Cole Palmer (£10.4m), whose recent performances I hated, but Forest were expected to miss a few key players, and the xMins predictions were decent. The Englishman is also a designated penalty-taker, so I reluctantly played him instead of Hill.

At the end, his effective ownership in my rank group was a nice thing to see after the deadline – 27.1% for Palmer, 24.7% for Senesi, and 19.1% for Hill.

We all know what happened next.

💡 Look, if Palmer had converted that penalty, it wouldn’t have been a 10-point swing, but only a marginal difference.

However, that penalty happens in roughly 10% of games, and he once again posed zero threat in open play.

I did the analysis based on the long-term signals, then went against it, and I got exactly what I deserved.

This would make a great bench boost, wouldn’t it?

Anyway, let us focus on the more pleasant component of the picture above.

Jack Hinshelwood’s (£5.1m) 7-pointer on the bench is actually a great thing. It’s another mental model to help you handle the stuff that tends to get under your skin – instead of being annoyed about those benched points, reframe them: