ℹ️ There are fewer than three weeks until the season ends.
What does this mean for your premium subscriptions, and what’s the summer plan? See the article below (spoiler alert: you don’t have to do anything):
Alright, guys, let’s cut to the chase.
The only time I tilt playing FPL is when I’m convinced I made a mistake. Late clean-sheet wipeouts, penalty misses, injuries and red cards, none of this hurts too much anymore after all those years. A good old decision-making error, on the other hand…
All the more so if the mistake is well documented.
In last week’s articles, I was raving about what a great opportunity it is to stack Bournemouth’s defence for their home clash against Crystal Palace, citing several compelling arguments for going there*. On top of that, it was a beautiful opportunity for my own team, as all of Marcos Senesi (£5.2m), James Hill (£4.2m), and Marcus Tavernier (£5.4m) were low-owned differentials.
*Most of it then panned out: Senesi’s attacking threat, a strong likelihood of a clean sheet, Palace rotating, DEFCONs for both Senesi and Hill, etc. Cheat code of a game.
Tipping the scales the other way was Cole Palmer (£10.4m), whose recent performances I hated, but Forest were expected to miss a few key players, and the xMins predictions were decent. The Englishman is also a designated penalty-taker, so I reluctantly played him instead of Hill.
At the end, his effective ownership in my rank group was a nice thing to see after the deadline – 27.1% for Palmer, 24.7% for Senesi, and 19.1% for Hill.
We all know what happened next.
💡 Look, if Palmer had converted that penalty, it wouldn’t have been a 10-point swing, but only a marginal difference.
However, that penalty happens in roughly 10% of games, and he once again posed zero threat in open play.
I did the analysis based on the long-term signals, then went against it, and I got exactly what I deserved.
This would make a great bench boost, wouldn’t it?
Anyway, let us focus on the more pleasant component of the picture above.
Jack Hinshelwood’s (£5.1m) 7-pointer on the bench is actually a great thing. It’s another mental model to help you handle the stuff that tends to get under your skin – instead of being annoyed about those benched points, reframe them: