Data vs. hype vs. lazy takes: Who’s actually worth it in FPL’s midfield and forward chaos

Attacking trends. Lazy takes. £6 million gems. Or Declan Rice and finding value in deceptive season

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Last week, I released this massive guide covering all aspects of Premier League defences:

• Current-season trends and their sustainability

• What’s with all those set-piece goals

• How the DEFCONs actually work

• Which popular players are likely to keep getting them, and which might not

• … plus some more topics to get a better understanding of the current landscape

And it became the third most-read article (so far) in Data Dribble history:

This time, we’ll discuss midfielders and forwards.

Which is a rather dull topic this season, given that only 5 (!) names in the top 20 of the highest-scoring fantasy players are forwards or attacking-minded midfielders.

(But don’t worry, I will also cover Declan Rice and Moises Caicedo, who are firmly in the top ten.)

Let that sink in.

Then take a look at this mind-blowing stat from Rob T:

Still, we can do our thing—look for some outliers, try to predict the future, and be early on some high-performing picks.

Let’s do this.

City and Semenyo: You need to be careful on social media

Always question everything you see on FPL 𝕏.

Because it’s still full of lazy and incorrect takes.

Honestly — how many times did you read something like “This is an amazing matchup for Antoine Semenyo. He’ll thrive against City’s high defensive line” last week?

Well, yeah, that would be true if Bournemouth had faced last season’s Manchester City, which truly played with the Premier League's highest defensive line.

This season, however…

City deploy the 12th-highest defensive line in the league. In comparison, Arsenal’s average position of touches with the ball is 5 meters higher.

Before the game, City were ranked 3rd for xG conceded, 7th best for xG conceded from counters (3rd best in the last five matches), and had the 3rd-fewest shots allowed from these situations.

It was hardly a too favourable match-up.

And then there are Semenyos’ performances lately.

In the 5 games leading up to Gameweek 10, Semenyo actually regressed significantly, averaging just 1.30 shots, 0.15 non-penalty expected goals, and almost no key passes.

I’m not suggesting he won’t turn it around, but choosing THIS particular match-up as a turning point didn’t make much sense.

Whenever you hear someone jumping to these kinds of quick conclusions with no further explanation, your alarm bells should ring. Apart from the goal following Donarumma’s mistake, Bournemouth created almost nothing in that game. This is not even hindsight — I discussed this in last week’s edition of Thought Process.

Anyway, is Antoine Semenyo a problem now?

That’s a much trickier question, given what he’s capable of historically.

If you already own him (his current ownership is 64.3%, so it’s pretty likely), there are probably other spots on your team where you can use a transfer more effectively.

Aston Villa away will be a tough nut to crack, but West Ham, Sunderland, Everton, Chelsea, United and Burnley afterwards look like a pretty favourable run of fixtures…

That means I would monitor the situation closely and observe the team dynamics with Evanilson and David Brooks (he’s very important this season) potentially back together in the starting line-up soon. The Cherries are somewhat unsettled at the moment, but it shouldn’t last forever.

However, if he continues not to get shots, he isn't worth £7.8 million, as he hasn't been creating chances this season to make up for the lack of them — Brooks, Tavernier, and Kluivert are responsible for that at the Cherries.

In the Premium part of the article, you’ll find:

• Assessing Danny Welbeck and Yankuba Minteh as FPL options

• Two attacking players who could shake up things soon (both priced at just £6.x)

• Declan Rice, Moisés Caicedo: How do they earn their points? And is that sustainable?

• Liverpool: Is Dominik Szoboszlai the solution to everything?

• And much more…

Danny Welbeck and Yankuba Minteh are in the spotlight

In last week’s edition of Q&A, there were quite a few questions regarding Danny Welbeck.

My replies were rather cagey: