Can anyone stop France? And who’s the MVP?
An analytical insight for last 16
This World Cup has been amazing.
How could it not be? Just look at this:
Look, I’m thinking about FPL, emerging trends in the Premier League and the summer transfer market all the time.
But this World Cup is simply so much fun, and I’m sure most of you either play the official fantasy game or have fired up a few Fanteam entries (or both). So I thought I’d mix business with pleasure and write something to perhaps help with team selection, or simply to enjoy some interesting insights.
And feed my inner monster, which is craving analytical storytelling.
💡 Fun fact: At the previous Mundial in Qatar, I wrote daily analytical articles for Flashscore.com, which were then translated into 17 languages. I have fond memories of that. Let’s write on my home turf now.
Spain: Can they stop France?
Spain are a strange one.
After the group stage concluded, they gave off a somewhat meh vibe.
Easy group, a draw with Cape Verde in the opening game, quiet Lamine Yamal, not creating much against Uruguay. Naturally, France and Argentina got all the spotlight.
But then they dominated the first knockout game against Austria, winning 3:0 and creating close to 3 xG's worth of chances, while dominating the positional battle and not giving away any dangerous chances.
Both Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal racked up 6 shots, Marc Cucurella set up 2 assists, and they genuinely looked like title contenders. It’s tough to do any data analysis based on a sample size of 4 games, skewed by playing not-so-quality opponents half the time.
But the underlying numbers look great.
They play the highest defensive line in the tournament. They don’t give away possession. And when they do, they want it back immediately, and they succeed thanks to their rapid pressing and effective counter-pressing, which is the best in the tournament so far (but again, low sample size alert).
They have an absurd success rate in aerial duels, and when it doesn’t work out, they win second balls in all parts of the pitch with ease.
If I had to use one word to describe them so far, it would be control.
As for the players, Oyarzabal and Yamal are obvious threats in the final third, and Marc Cucurella is one of the main creators. But for me, Pedri is Spain’s MVP and firmly deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as an elite group that includes Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland.
What does he do?
Well, everything.
He recovers 7.5 balls per 90 minutes (90th percentile) and shines in the defensive actions VAEP metric, which means he regularly disrupts dangerous attacks.
He ranks in the 95th percentile for both run VAEP and pass VAEP, meaning his progressive actions increase the team’s chances of scoring.
He plays great final passes, and his xA hovers around 0.45. There’s no other central midfielder at this Mundial who offers performances this elite across all these departments. Pedri is the guy who glues it all together.
They’re on the disgusting side of the bracket – they play Portugal in the round of 16, and if they make it, it will be one of the USA and Belgium. Then it’s most likely France in the semi-finals, as no one can even imagine they wouldn’t beat Paraguay and one of Canada/Morocco (though I love Morocco).
That game could become one of the greatest of all time.
Argentina: Messi, camaraderie and good vibes
There’s an incredible sense of togetherness and a great vibe around this team.
I don’t know, it’s probably Lionel Messi’s aura that’s taken over the squad since his hat-trick in the opening game.
Argentina’s trademark at this World Cup has been their passing game.
They’ve been averaging 6 passes per possession, the most in the tournament, and their possessions are the longest on average.
They are quite happy to play a low block, give up pressing, move up the pitch slowly, and wait for Messi to do his thing until space opens up to attack. They are really slow at times during the build-up.
Reeeeeeeeeally slow.
But they have a great defence that doesn’t concede many good shots (they allowed just 2 shots on target during the group phase), which is important.
They also won a draw lottery – OPTA predict they will reach the semi-finals in more than 50% of cases, most likely beating Egypt and Switzerland/Colombia. Hard to dispute that, despite today’s drama.
France: Sit back and enjoy
I will hardly say anything new.
They’re impressive, playing this perfectly fluid attacking system with the full-backs pushing high to fill the gaps when the wingers do their thing.
You think, right, let’s double up on Kylian Mbappé.
Sure, but he just gives the ball to Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, or Bradley Barcola, who’s running like a berserk because he has his personal mission to keep Désiré Doué off the pitch. Or vice versa. It’s a nightmare to play against.
Plus, Michael Olise has transformed into something hard to describe with words. And I like to think I’m good with them.
Unsurprisingly, he tops every possible metric for progressing the ball with passing. On top of that, he’s elite in carrying, dribbling, creating mind-blowing final passes for his mates, getting into chances, and EVEN WINNING THE BALL BACK. What is this sorcery?
And then came that moment when he launched himself into the air for a scissor kick on the edge of the box, only to narrowly miss what would have been the goal of the tournament…
I nearly spilt my drink watching that.
It’s not only those four (five). Tchouameni recovers the ball where it matters, and Rabiot complements the superstars around him technically – he can progress the ball and create chances.
Upamecano and Saliba are great on the ground and on the ball.
I can see some lapses in the air going forward, but they are clear favourites to win it all.
⭐ The Data Dribble premium is back!
This is shaping up to be an insanely fun pre-season, and those managerial changes are a big part of it.
I kicked off this article series with a detailed look at what’s happening at Crystal Palace. Yes, it includes DEFCON predictions.
Brazil: Could Norway exploit their weaknesses?
Brazil are tricky.
There’s a lot to like, but there are also many things their opponents can exploit.
If you think France does a fair share of counter-attacking, I recommend watching some Brazil games. They created 69% more xG from those attacks than France, the second-best team in this metric (their total xG is similar).
The key driver behind this is *surprise, surprise* Vinícius Júnior, who posts one of the best results in metrics that measure how his runs and dribbles increase the team’s chances of scoring… and of not conceding.
The problem is, he’s miles ahead of the rest of the team.
So far, aside from Viní, it’s Marquinhos and Gabriel who are doing the fair share of progressing, which is… not ideal.
❗ Rayan has a magnificent final pass, as does Bruno Guimarães, but they need to be in the final third enough to produce these in usual volumes. When someone figures out how to stop a Real Madrid winger from progressing the ball into those areas, they will be in a pickle.
Also, we don’t know what will happen when someone truly exploits their flanks. Norway don’t have the same quality as some other teams out wide – unless you’re bullish on some of their youngsters – which is good news for Brazil. I’d say they win the game, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t: another of their weaknesses is defending set-pieces, and that’s where Norway and Erling Haaland can cause serious damage.
Seleção shouldn’t have too many problems breaking down low blocks, despite their counterattacking style, but they need Matheus Cunha to remain the goal threat he was in previous games. So far, he’s been great.
If they make it, it’s either England or Mexico. And when it happens, there might be another article.
England: Fated to suffer
They are probably a better team than all the yapping on social media suggests.
And they have Harry Kane.
Is Jude Bellingham a better footballer playing as #8 rather than #10? Yeah, probably, but even if he laid golden eggs, criticism wouldn’t stop. He’s alright, don’t worry.
England can create against deep blocks, pose a big threat from set pieces, and defend pretty well, which are good foundations for a deep run in a football tournament if you ask me.
In terms of standout players, apart from those two already mentioned, Declan Rice is having a great tournament and does exactly what you’d expect from him. Elliot Anderson is genuinely one of the best #6s in the tournament, and Manchester City have a true gem in him – the volume of ball recoveries in front of centre-backs and his aerial duelling are top-notch.
Noni Madueke’s criticism isn’t entirely fair. He’s not a big goal threat himself, but only Lamine Yamal (and Kenan Yildiz) gets the ball into the box more often than he does. He’s a great ball progressor who creates dangerous moments. It’s just those shots that are missing.
Still, I wouldn’t say anyone has a truly poor tournament.
Apart from Jordan Pickford.
Jordan Pickford must wake up.
The match against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca will be tough. Could England be sent packing? Possibly, but they will put up a good fight, even though they must be gassed out after the long season. Look, from now on, it most likely won’t be smooth sailing in any of their games.
Portugal: No, sorry
My sincere apologies to all Portugal fans.
I just can’t really warm to them.
Watching a struggling Cristiano Ronaldo, who gets just one touch in the box and a single open-play shot over 81 minutes, is just annoying, and from an outsider’s perspective, it’s hard to cheer for that (I know there was a goal ruled out).
Especially when you’re not getting the best out of a midfield of Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, and João Neves, and your creative fullback duo of Mendes & Cancelo. And it was Ronaldo’s second poor performance in a row.
They don’t stand out in attack. They don’t stand out in defence. And dare I say it, Bruno Fernandes doesn’t look like his best when playing in this type of advanced role. Also, Neves and Neto failed to convince me. Neto, in particular, was awful.
It seems that Vitinha is playing with far more confidence than others do.
💡 Fun fact: Who would have the most defensive contributions if it were part of World Cup fantasy? It would be a Bosnian centre-back, Tarik Muharemovic, with almost 14 clearances per 90 minutes. Disgusting.
Other names to include are Marin Pongracic, César Montes, Omar Alderete, and players from Cape Verde. But that’s hardly surprising to anyone.
Other teams:
As for the rest of the teams, let’s take a brief look at their games:
USA vs Belgium: This is genuinely a coin toss. Belgium have one of the worst defences among the “top” teams, and USA are genuinely fun to watch – a high-energy, high-tempo side that will cause problems even without Folarin Balogun, who will serve a one-match ban. His replacement, Ricardo Pepi, will be eager to shine. He’s a nice fantasy punt, but they likely won’t make it through the quarter-finals.
Canada vs Morocco: I like a lot about this Moroccan team, but sadly the draw was harsh on them, as they will face France in the QF if they advance. Pour yourself your favourite drink and enjoy Achraf Hakimi, Ismael Saibari, Bilal El Khannous and others in a game that promises an electric atmosphere against one of the host nations.
Switzerland vs Colombia: This one will be amazing. I can’t wait for it. Colombia are fun (for example, they have the most counter-attacks in the tournament). Switzerland are also fun. There are exciting players on both sides. Two dark horses facing each other.
That’s all for today. Let me know in the comments below if you’d like more World Cup content for the rest of the tournament.
See you soon.
Superb work: analytical, rigorous, serious… Well done!