Building the Free Hit 34 draft: I analysed all the match-ups

The last big Free Hit opportunity of the 2025/2026 season

Sadly, this is most likely the final Free Hit guide of the 2025/2026 season.

If you’re a long-time Data Dribble reader, you know my history as a daily fantasy sports “pro” and that I’m going to enjoy this one.

Firstly, we will analyse all 7 match-ups to identify even the smallest edges, and then create a draft based on these.

Simple as that.

So let’s dive straight in:

Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest

This shouldn’t be too cagey an affair.

Among the teams fighting to secure Premier League status, Nottingham Forest arguably have the trickiest run of fixtures. After Sunderland, it’s Chelsea (lol, I know), Newcastle, Manchester United, and Bournemouth. They need three points from this upcoming one.

Sunderland escaped relegation as a newly promoted team and are only 4 points behind the Europa League spot at the time of writing.

This odds-defying season can only get better, and it is a good opportunity to be brave and regain momentum before they face Wolves in GW35.

On paper, this is a clash between two evenly matched teams.

To get a general idea about teams’ strengths based on the quality of chances they create and concede:

• In the whole-season sample, Nottingham Forest are ranked 16th for expected points (xPoints), while Sunderland are 18th, with just about 3 points separating them.

• In this calendar year (the last 14 games), both teams are on 15 non-penalty xPoints.

The magnitude of the game and the overall defensive strength of both clubs are not the only reasons to avoid those defences.

Forest’s centre-back Murillo (£5.2m) was forced off in the 42nd minute of Sunday’s match against Burnley and will fight to be back on Friday evening.

Not only does it significantly weaken their backline, but he’s also a player with the highest DEFCON potential this season in that group, averaging 9.44 contributions per 90 minutes and a 40% success rate (since Vítor Peraira took over, i.e., in the last thirteen games). The closest is Nikola Milenkovič (£5.1m), who meets the threshold 33% of the time. 

❗ Under the new coach, they are the worst-performing team in the Premier League at creating set-piece threat. It’s an ongoing trend – over the whole season, they are ranked dead last for both xG and actual goals scored from these.

When it comes to Sunderland, their defenders are a great value as long-term picks. However, I’m not too sure they stand out in this particular match-up.

They are amazing for defcon’s and attacking threat, while Forest are poor at defending set-pieces, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Nordi Mukiele (£4.5m), Omar Alderete (£4.1m, might miss the game because of a knock) or especially Dan Ballard (£4.7m) clinch a return*. It’s a clean sheet potential that doesn’t feel too great.

*It happened in the reverse fixture, when Omar Alderete scored a winner from a corner. If you have a Sunderland defender in a non-FH team, it’s a nice differential.

Defensive stacking is a crucial concept when building a Free Hit team, and I’m not too confident about having 2 or more Sunderland defenders this week.

The way I see this is that Forest will try to put Sunderland under sustained pressure with a slow, positional build-up and will avoid aggressive pressing out of possession to limit Sunderland’s opportunities to counter, as a) the Blackcats are good at it and b) Forest can’t really defend against them.

Eventually, someone will make a mistake.

The only pick from this game I’m bullish on is Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.5m).

If you read my articles long enough, you know this isn’t a knee-jerk reaction and goes far beyond his hat-trick against Burnley. He was my “6th” midfielder in some parts of the season, long before that.

For me, an important part of the Free Hit is to go for goals aggressively, and he’s made for that under Pereira (per 90 minutes):

• 2.50 shots

• 0.25 non-penalty xG

• 0.42 post-shot xG (as per StatsBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout)

… with the following shot map full of central attempts:

Unfortunately, I don’t see much stacking in this game.

I already spoke about the defence, and the midfield spots are scarce this week. One stack I’d be somewhat open to would be the one featuring Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.7m), who has the best on-pitch chemistry with MGW, but the latest news has made that impossible:

I’m not convinced by Omari Hutchinson, and while Elliot Anderson (£5.6m) is a great long-term pick, I’d opt for someone with a higher upside in the Free Hit draft. So I’d say just go with MGW or snub the game entirely.

Fulham vs Aston Villa

One of the nicest things about building Free Hit drafts is that you can immediately exploit injuries and suspensions.

And Alex Iwobi (£6.3m) pulling up his hamstring in Saturday’s clash against Brentford should be one of the week’s most discussed topics. The Nigerian is the heart, brain, and engine of Marco Silva’s group.

He’s one of those players whose immense value in the final third of the pitch can’t be measured in goals and assists. Most of his direct threat comes from his left-sided set-piece delivery, aided by excellent striking technique that allows him to score from not-so-favourable positions. But most of his value lies in his distribution and a taste for getting the ball into areas that truly matter.

💡 He does it in two ways: long passes and deep crosses, often allowing someone to run into the cutback zone, AND running from deep and distributing high. It may not sound too exciting, but he executes it brilliantly, so Fulham lose a fair share of creativity when he’s not on the pitch.

If you want it visually: