Bournemouth: Attacking threat and that one thing no one talks about. Yet...
All you need to know about Bournemouth
During the summer, I had a long list of articles I wanted to publish before the season started. And although I discussed Bournemouth quite a lot, they didn’t manage to get a standalone article before Gameweek 1 started. Now’s the right time to take action.
The truth is, they are one of my favourite topics to write about because, man, they are so much fun. Plus, it makes for a good story. There is fighting against adversity, doing things your own way, discovering big names for the world’s best clubs, and a clear philosophy on how to play the game of football.
All of this creates an intriguing side to watch, not only for avid FPL managers but for basically anyone who loves the English Premier League.
The opening game we all hoped for
A few weeks ago, I posted a fun thread on X about players I believe will “bang in goals,” where I expressed my long-term bullishness on both Evanilson and Antoine Semenyo.
I predicted that Bournemouth players would gain popularity quite soon, although it happened somewhat quicker than I had expected.
Let’s not kid ourselves. Liverpool’s defensive performance on Friday night was heavily impacted by the absence of Ryan Gravenberch in the double pivot and the fact that the not fully fit Jeremie Frimpong was experiencing the true Premier League intensity from a team that… hates to do things slowly.
However, you still need to give Cherries credit, because they created numerous dangerous goal-scoring opportunities, considering how tough several weeks they had to go through:
Liverpool 4:2 Bournemouth
xG: 2.21 - 1.70
xG from open play: 1.73 - 1.56
xG from set pieces: 0.48 - 0.14
Shots inside the box: 15 - 8
0.20+ xG chances: 3 - 3
Evanilson racked up 3 attempts — two of which were headers — ending the game with 0.29 expected goals and no final passes. It was the Ghanaian who stole the show. His three attempts were much more dangerous, and he converted two of them.
The first signal of a big game to come was his shot from the 5-minute mark, which, by the way, was assisted by their new left-back, Adrien Truffert. He had another two shots with an xG of over 0.20 afterwards—one after a neat off-ball run, and another as a result of a perfectly executed carry from the edge of his own penalty area. Notice how central all the shots were.
Not only do the Cherries need to adapt to life without their number one goalkeeper and three (!) most utilised defenders, but they also missed Justin Kluivert and Dango Ouattara (now a new Brentford player), two of their pivotal creative players.
Now, let’s recap what I’ve already covered in the thread mentioned above in more detail. Both players present a goal threat that ranks among the best in the league in their respective positions.
If you run the basic numbers on Evanilson (£7.0m), you get:
• 2.79 non-penalty shots p90
• 0.42 non-penalty xG p90
• 0.42 post-shot xG p90
• 0.15 xG per shot
If you are a data analytics fan, you know that these numbers are good. To draw some comparisons, the quality and volume of shots are similar to Ollie Watkins, and the average quality of shots resembles that of Chris Wood.
Who either only takes very dangerous attempts or headers, which usually don’t convert very often. However, Wood decided that in the first half of each season, he would post better finishing numbers than Lionel Messi. I should know better.
If you inspect the Brazilians’ shot map a little more closely, there’s a lot to like.
Out of his 73 shots, 89% were from inside the box, and he took 13 attempts from the 6-yard box.
He scored 10 non-penalty goals across 2,500 minutes played.
In the first half of the season, it was clear that he sometimes struggled to find good positions to receive the ball in the box, but even then, he managed to take some good shots.
Towards the end of the campaign, he showed significant improvement in this aspect. Once he entered the box, a pretty dangerous situation followed most of the time.
Overall, these are impressive numbers considering this was his debut season after arriving from Portugal—he immediately faced more intense and physical competition. Also, remember that he missed 8 games shortly after the New Year due to a fractured foot, and in the first ten games following his return, he scored 7 goals in the league and cup.
How often can you pick a winger like that in FPL?
Antoine Semenyo (£7.1m) somehow still belongs in a group of these slightly disrespected players (probably less now after that Friday’s performance, lol), at least from how I see it.
He’s a 25-year-old winger who scored 11 goals and made 5 assists last season in a very attacking team, so the conditions seem quite favourable… Moreover, while Evanilson starts his second Premier League season, this is Semenyo’s third.
And by the disrespect, I mean many still believe he’s a poor finisher, which simply isn’t true. Yes, he does take a lot of low-xG, pointless shots outside the box, which usually have about a 5% chance of scoring even for top players, but you also have to consider other shots. The fact remains that he records a significant number of dangerous attempts.
He averaged 3.52 shots, with 0.27 xG and 0.35 post-shot xG per 90 minutes, adding 0.14 expected assists, which demonstrates a high volume and quality of output in the final third.
To showcase his finishing ability, I reviewed all his shots from his last five seasons:
24/25: 10 xG and 11 goals
23/24: 4.60 xG and 8 goals
3 seasons in Bristol: 16 xG and 16 goals
Total: 31 xG, 35 goals scored
Nothing unusual.
When you analyse his goal probability added numbers, you see that he’s the biggest threat in the Bournemouth squad. Not only in terms of the final product, i.e., scoring goals and making final passes, but also in his carrying and dribbling skills.
No other player in their team makes more successful entries into the box. Unsurprisingly, he often relies on his running ability to do so—almost 45% of the time, he simply drives it inside rather than pass or cross.
A brief history of Andoni Iraola
Semenyo is a perfect player for Andoni Iraola, and once again, he will likely be the most utilised attacking player this season.