8 GWs left: How to handle the first blank of the season

Blank Gameweek 31 incoming

We are fresh off a week that was full of exceptionally boring, low-scoring games.

On the other hand, Bruno Fernandes continues his masterclass in delivering any pass he pleases, and Thiago & Dango double up took us back to the days when Wissa and Mbeumo’s chemistry was a thing.

Anyway, you know it was a bit weird one when you see this:

This is not an AI

But the other one is close, folks.

The final gameweek before everything kicks off.

Sure, we’re heading into a blank GW, which is always exciting. But it’s still not THE Blank Gameweek we are all waiting for (if predictions turn out right...).

With only 8 GWs remaining, every move we make will become increasingly impactful. Let’s analyse them all.

Fulham: Don’t fight it

Talking about Fulham players just before they face Burnley at home isn’t exactly a revelation, but low-hanging fruit is… still fruit.

The good thing is that their picks kind of work for all the managers: not only for those who will use the wildcard chip in Gameweek 32, but also for those who will postpone it until Gameweek 35 or have already used it.

However, if you belong to the second or third group, some caution is needed, especially if you’re going for double up:

Burnley this week is offset by the Cottagers facing Liverpool in GW32, so having proper bench cover is definitely a good idea.

Not too appealing on paper. But keep reading

A few weeks ago, I might have said Brentford wasn’t the best match-up, but their defensive performances have been somewhat suspect since January:

• 15.6 xG conceded (1.41 xGC per game), which is the league’s average

• 9th in xG per shot conceded, which doesn’t seem like Brentford, as their philosophy is to allow the least dangerous shots possible

• 7th for xGC from set pieces

There are games in which Fulham can maintain a sustained open play threat. They are also strong at attacking set pieces.

❗ Plus, their chance creation mainly relies on crosses and long passes into cutback zones — the Bees often struggle to defend both of these, so it’s an even better match-up when you look deeper.

Of course, there’s no guarantee Fulham will get a result, as Premier League analysts see the same things I do (especially Brentford’s), and Keith Andrews will be well aware. However, I suspect there will be chances for both sides. If the reverse fixture was any indication, it was an even affair.

Then there’s Aston Villa at home, which is another good fixture. I discussed them extensively in last week’s deep dive:

Teams are falling apart, captaincy is wide open. How to profit?

You might be reluctant to hop on the Harry Wilson (£6.0m) & Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) trend because it seems like everyone’s doing it, but I wouldn’t overthink it.

The simplest answer is often correct, however dull it may sound:

• The Twitter/X bubble is just a fraction of the total player pool. Wilson is owned by 22.7% of managers (25% EO in my rank group, for example), which is a significant share but still enough to earn you some points. Andersen is in 5.3% of the teams (about 20% EO in the engaged rank group).

• They work well together. As a former DFS player, I understand a lot about synergy, stacking, and finding players who complement each other, whether through their chemistry during open play or their set-piece connections. Kids on social media now refer to this as CoVar (correlated variance).

  In this case, it’s quite simple: Wilson is one of the set-piece takers, and although he shares that role with Alex Iwobi and Saša Lukič, it’s a nice bonus if you also own the Dane, who is the most frequent receiver and takes the most set-piece shots.

• In 9 out of 10 cases, you would choose a stack with this kind of chemistry if you had a chance. It’s an ideal scenario.

• While they aren’t a low-owned differentials on their own, only 7% of managers own that combination. So, if you own one, it’s a nice move to add the other. Or you can add both. No problem with that. There’s still nothing wrong with template picks, even with 8 GWs left.

One game involves a lot of variance (an element of luck), but if you are exposed to those spots, however obvious they are, it’s better not to snub them regularly to force different solutions.

What about different solutions within the same team?

Well, it depends.