Alright, reader.
The final gameweek before the unprecedented 3-week international break is upon us.
No one can prepare you for the void you will feel.
Just as no one could have prepared you for finding out that Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s second goal was credited to him, but it was too late for FPL points to be updated.
Data Dribble is different. It prepares you for things:
🌶️ What’s on today’s menu?
Morgan Gibbs-White in detail: New system, different attacking threat?
Ipswich might be better than we think and could improve our teams…
Picking the best Everton and Fulham players for their good runs
DEF who’s in 0.4% of teams but will soon be everywhere
Oliver Glasner’s magic: Signal, or is it too soon?
£6 million MID who will break the game
£5.5 MID differential
And more!
The case for Ipswich
Perhaps you hoped I would open with one of those teams about to enter a favourable run of fixtures.
Which Bournemouth and Fulham players to pick, how to assess Newcastle properly, and whether to buy Morgan Gibbs-White. Or Neco Williams? And what about Daniel Muñoz? Don’t worry, I’ll get to that.
However, after reading this section, you might fall for certain Ipswich enablers. Ed Sheeran did, so why wouldn’t you?
The Tractor Boys are certainly entering an enticing period. If you look at the expected goals difference table powered by Solio Analytics’ model, they don’t exactly stand out, but Everton, Fulham, City, Forest, Hull, Bournemouth, Spurs, and Aston Villa over the next eight Gameweeks don’t look too bad:
Their public perception is a bit skewed by the thrashing they took from Manchester United, led by Bruno Fernandes’ historic haul, but otherwise they’ve been solid.
We’re still working with a sample size of just 4 games, and most of what’s happening is still noise, so we’ll refrain from making strong statements and refine our assumptions each week.
However, there are already several things to notice about players and teams.
💡 Despite that horrific result, Ipswich are ranked 9th in OPTA’s expected points table.
That must mean they did quite well defensively in other games, because they conceded 4.77 xG against United, right? Yeah, just about 0.67 xG per game in the remaining games against Sunderland, Liverpool, and Crystal Palace.
And they've conceded just 0.07 xG per shot, which means they don’t allow too many clear-cut chances.
Now, Palace’s Axel Disasi was sent off in the 34th minute, Liverpool scored two goals in the opening 10 minutes, and Sunderland… are Sunderland.
So, while it’s not a definitive signal that something extraordinary is brewing, it’s something worth monitoring, especially since you know I’ve frequently praised their transfer business and discussed Exequiel Palacios several times. So far, he’s excellent.
For FPL picks, those £4m DEFs are worth discussing in more detail. There are three:
Dara O’Shea (9.75 DEFCONs/90, 50% hit rate, 0.02 npxG and 0.06 xA)
Issa Diop (8.75 DEFCONs/90, 50% hit rate, zero npxG and 0.04 xA)
Leif Davis (4.75 DEFCONs/90, 0% hit rate, 0.29 npxG and 0.11 xA p90)
Most attempts from corners: Dara O’Shea (3)
Ipswich are getting a lot of corners, and while their quality is rather questionable, O’Shea already has 3 shots from them, making him a pretty nice pick when you also factor in his DEFCON production.
As a fullback, he has minor assist potential, though he’s not the type of player who would create much threat that way.
The same cannot be said about Leif Davis, whose 0.29 npxG and 0.11 xA p90 so far are winger-like figures.
Again, I highly doubt this won’t visibly regress towards the mean as we move through the season, but it’s good news that he plays this attacking role in the Prem.
Don’t show this shot map to Yoane Wissa’s owners:
I wouldn’t mind having a structure with a £4m Ipswich defender on the wildcard. Just make sure he’s a last resort and that you don’t play him too often. As long as he does his job and lets you build a stronger team week in, week out, I think it’s a good play.
Exequiel Palacios, Julio Enciso and Emersonn are other standout Ipswich players at the moment, but none of them makes the same sense for squad-building and upside as those budget defenders.
To highlight someone who didn’t quite catch the Premier League’s tempo, it’s Daizen Maeda, who gives the impression of an athlete who loves running but would rather do it without that round thing someone tries to pass to him. Watching him dribble with it is painful (can Chris confirm this in the comments?).
In terms of team data, they certainly don’t look like complete whipping boys. They create chances, score goals, and their mid-block, which likes to counter-attack and get shots quickly after gaining possession, can cause problems. They need to improve their pressing quickly, but it’s still a team full of new players, and most of the season is left.
Morgan Gibbs-White in detail: How does the new system affect his threat level?
Each week, some player gets so hyped up on FPL Twitter that you’d think your season ends right now if you don’t own him.
This time, it’s Morgan Gibbs-White (£8m), who, funnily enough, is only the 3rd most-bought-in player this week after Morgan Rogers and… Pascal Gross?
I already discussed MGW last week when I had some doubts, so let’s follow up in a bit more detail, because the fixtures certainly look nice.
I flagged Nottingham Forest during pre-season as one of the teams that is difficult to read but could potentially become a source of FPL assets. It was a combination of transfer business, existing players, the system, and Oliver Glasner.
Based on our tiny sample, we can see some glimpses.
First, they’ve been tough to crack so far. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have allowed fewer quality chances, and they don’t concede too many goals:
4 goals conceded from 4.1 xG
5th fewest shots allowed
7th best xG per shot allowed
2nd best xG conceded from fast transitions
Most second balls won in the defensive third, with the 2nd best success rate
Aerially dominant
3rd lowest possession percentage, and 5th lowest defensive block
This looks like a sturdy defence that’s annoying to play against.
Now, what does it mean for MGW and his attacking upside?