2 weeks, 7 sensible differentials to play (marked safe from DEFCON)

Tiny ownerships, potentially hefty returns

Sensible and boring usually pays off.

But the things you will truly remember as an FPL manager are James Tarkowski’s 15-pointer when betting against DGW players, or Jack Hinshelwood scoring goals at 6% effective ownership.

While I’m not a fan of overly forced differentials during the regular season, the endgame creates room for well-timed plays to chase ranks: manipulating effective ownerships, stacking for specific match-ups, and going for the ceiling rather than the steady floor. You know the drill.

Some picks even let you forget DEFCONs for a minute. Refreshing.

Let’s see some fun ones.

Palace vs Everton: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall on the rise

Recently, I outlined 3 general rules for picking a sensible differential. These were:

• aim for teams that still have a lot to play for

• favour players with similar EVs but lower EOs than more popular picks

• … and go for a combination of synergies + the final product

I used Everton players as a case study simply because they checked all three boxes.

And, funnily enough, they ended up involved in one of the most entertaining matches of Gameweek 36. As they say, you don’t defend on the beach. The beach is for fun stuff.

Going deep into the match-up analysis doesn’t automatically mean the game will follow a pre-written script. A single game involves an absurd amount of variance (luck), which is why it’s important to make good decisions week in, week out, and not to worry too much about misfortune.

This time, however, it panned out pretty well:

1️⃣ The corner routines were, once more, centred on James Tarkowski (£5.7m), who recorded 4 shots from them, scoring one goal. With an assist and 13 defensive contributions on top of that, he finished GW36 with 15 points – despite Everton conceding twice.

Michael Keane recorded two shots but failed to meet the DEFCON threshold, resulting in a 1-pointer.

2️⃣ Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£5.2m) continued the trend of making each shot as dangerous as possible.

He missed this chance:

Interestingly, he and James Garner (£5.2m) shared set-pieces equally, each racking up 5 corner kicks. Before the game, Garner was on 41 and KDH on 8 this calendar year.

3️⃣ Beto (£5.0m) returned straight back into the starting line-up and recorded yet another close-range shot, slotting it through Henderson’s legs.

With Sunderland (h) and Spurs (a) still to come, it’s reasonable to expect their picks to grow in popularity. However, they should still remain low enough to secure pretty nice rank gains, even among the engaged player pool.

TSB% at the time of writing this are: James Tarkowski 11.5%, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 6.7%, James Garner (3.8%), Beto (3%).

The highest EO risk is with Dewsbury-Hall, as it was already around 10% in some engaged rank groups.

I’m going to keep hating on Iliman Ndiaye (£6.2m), even though he showed some final product on Sunday. It’s because he didn’t do much in those 12 games before then. If he fails to meet the DEFCON threshold (now the third game in a row) and doesn’t get a penalty, you’re facing a very realistic blank.

Anyway, this section was intended to remind you of the process and to set the tone for the rest of the article.

💡 I wouldn’t classify Everton players as differentials now – they are simply great picks who happen to have pleasantly low ownership. 

The definition is always a bit blurry, but I guess the message is: if you like some of those players, go for it.

Now, let’s discuss the folks many of you have forgotten about.

Keane Lewis-Potter & Nathan Collins: Who’s the one?

Unless stated otherwise, I’ll use data from February onwards, covering 12 games, to provide a recent sample while filtering out noise. In the proper context, it’s enough.

In the previous section, I mentioned that the Palace vs Everton clash was a lot of fun.

Just look at the shot map:

source: theanalyst.com

Everton’s xG is not through the roof (though the StatsBomb model, via FantasyFootballScout, has it at about 1.60), but you can clearly see that Palace allowed quite a lot of shots close to goal.

They have nothing left to play for in the Premier League – Oliver Glasner was vocal about this – and will face Brentford away next, squeezed between two demanding games against Manchester City and Arsenal.

It’s a strange situation. Palace remain a solid defence, boosted by excellent Dean Henderson (£5.1m), yet the current sentiment is far from bullish. The reluctance to pick their players for the final double gameweek of the season said it all.

It’s hardly surprising, though – fatigue has set in, all eyes are on the Conference League final, and they will face a team that:

• will constantly try to exploit them in transitions

• will bomb them with long throws they can’t defend

• is solid at set pieces, while they’re not

Let’s discuss it in a little more detail.

1️⃣ Transitions: Brentford have accumulated the highest xG from counter-attacks this season. They also scored 12 goals from them, the 2nd most after Manchester City, who managed 4 more. Makes sense when you have you-know-who.

Similarly, it’s not rocket science to guess who benefits most on Brentford’s side.

It’s Igor Thiago (£7.3m).

However, he’s not a differential.

2️⃣ Long throws: You’re about to discover some of the best stats you’ve come across this season.

It’s something you can tell your mates in the pub, and they will think you really know the ball.

Brentford are topping another metric for how they create havoc in the final third of the pitch: they maintain the highest xG from long throw-ins. I have already covered this in one of the previous deep dives, but since then… well, let’s say they’re not slowing down.