Building a Gameweek 6 wildcard is a bit complicated.

But after the 3-week international break, no one thought it would be easy, right?

It’s not just the yellow flags signalling more or less serious injuries. It also feels like a restart, and we don’t really know what impact it will have on teams or which managers did their homework better than others.

We’ll pick up those things on the go.

The way I see it, we continue with the safe approach – sensible draft, good structure, and aim to save some FTs for the Christmas period that begins in Gameweek 12 (there’s also another IB after GW10). It’s also when much of the noise finally turns into a signal.

It’s annoying that I need to start writing this without information from press conferences, so where needed I’ll add a brief “edit” section.

Arsenal: What now?

Let’s start with the no-brainers and gradually work towards the harder calls.

Arsenal are both straightforward and tricky.

Straightforward in that you want their defensive double-up and, in most cases, a full stack that probably involves Bukayo Saka. Tricky because of injuries, squad depth, and potential ripple effects on other picks.

The best fixture runs according to the Solio Analytics model, ranked by expected goal difference

There’s an Ezri Konsa problem.

The £4.6m centre-back left the England team early, reportedly after picking up a knock rather than a serious injury. Still, there’s some uncertainty, given that William Saliba is expected back sometime in November, and Cristhian Mosquera, Piero Hincapié, Ben White, and Jurriën Timber all trained over the international break, so there’s no need to rush Konsa back.

Also, Arteta might not provide enough info during the presser. GW7 wildcarders will have a much clearer picture of the current state of things, but GW6 wildcarders won’t have this luxury.

Even if you’re confident Konsa will start, do you want to use a precious free transfer on him just before the busy Christmas period?

This narrows the pool of viable options to David Raya, Gabriel, and Riccardo Calafiori:

🔴 David Raya (£6.1m): Oh, man. You know I’m not a fan of paying that much for the lowest-upside position, but in FPL you simply have to adapt.

And when your options are limited, buying a safe way into Arsenal’s defence is fine. He’s also a bit of insurance if something happens with your ARS defenders in terms of minutes.

🔴 Gabriel (£8m): Again, you’re buying security, but it has a hefty price tag.

When you’re considering multiple drafts, or assessing whether buying Gabriel means too much sacrifice elsewhere, you should consider whether there are other routes to points outside clean sheets.

Gabriel’s points distribution according to the FPL Copilot model

So far, he’s averaging 1 shot per game: 2 of them were poor attempts outside the box and 3 from set pieces, all pretty dangerous. Arsenal are ranked 9th for set-piece xG so far, and Havertz, Konsa, and Calafiori all have more shots from corners.

That might improve gradually, and he remains a frequent target from other set pieces, but I’d ideally want a little more dominance going forward for £8 million.

Still, he’s a fine pick if you can build a team you like around him.

If not, then there’s…

🔴 Riccardo Calafiori (£5.7m): The day may come when he’s suddenly rested in the league.

However, he’s playing well, started all 5 games with an average of 84 minutes per match, and provides proper value for Arsenal – aerially, in the first phase of the build-up, with his carrying, and as a threat in the final third of the pitch, which is something we, FPL managers, like very much.

Calafiori averages 1.50 shots, 0.14 xG, and 0.13 xA per 90 (80+ percentiles for his position), and plays for the best defence in the world.

He allows you to forget about DEFCONs for a bit.

As for Bukayo Saka (£9.6m), now that Arsenal has Tzolis’ creativity and Odegaard in the number ten position, we’ve been watching an entirely different Saka from last season: he’s doing very little creating in the final third, but he basically lives in the box, receiving extremely close to goal and generating a high volume of great shots.

In that area, he has Haaland-esque numbers not only in surface-level expected metrics but also in more advanced ones.

An extremely interesting pick right now.

Annoyingly, Tzolis is out now, and Rice and Havertz are reportedly injured too, so the dynamics will be a bit different and Saka’s penalty share might be lower.

But I don’t think that’s enough to suddenly snub him.

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Erling Haaland: There are things you should not overthink

I can’t find a single sensible argument for leaving him out of the Wildcard 6 draft.

Having someone you can captain in most gameweeks without second-guessing yourself is huge. And if you do captain him enough, who cares that he costs £15.5m, especially when this season’s pricing doesn’t force a fight for every remaining bit of budget.

There are too many low-priced, high-performing picks at every position.

This is simply a work of art:

Perhaps the more interesting discussion is whether to include someone else from that City team. From a game-theory point of view, if you’re bullish on a player enough to captain him that often, you believe he’ll get goals and that other players will be involved. This creates a nice synergy within your team.

Unfortunately, it’s a classic xMins problem, and similar to what I just described in those Timber paragraphs. City have a clean bill of health in midfield. Well, almost, as Antoine Semenyo (£8.4m) withdrew from the Ghana squad, but it shouldn’t be a major issue.

With Doku back, the squad is crammed again. Semenyo, Doku, Ndiaye, Cherki, Foden (soon back after serving his ban)… Enzo Fernández and Elliot Anderson are also options. If I had to pick one, it would be Enzo, but is he a top 5 wildcard MID pick? Probably not.

It’s all too Haaland-centric and uncertain.

If we ignore that weird Sunderland game, the defence works okay-ish, and they create solid set-piece shots, so I wouldn’t be against Marc Guéhi (£6.0m) in isolation. He won’t make today’s final draft, though, as there are simply too many cheaper (£5 million…) DEFs with great value.

João Pedro problem

One of the biggest puzzles when building a wildcard.

As of now, we still don’t know how serious his injury is.

He might be back for GW6, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he sits that one out. He might also be back as soon as GW7. And you likely want him when this happens, even with somewhat xMins upon his return.

Because he’s on an 8-month run of amazing performances, still in 64.4% of teams, and with the following run of fixtures:

I know we’re talking about just 5 Premier League games, but the Brazilian is among the league’s best and most influential players.

I’ll happily use the word ‘dominant’ here.

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The most discussed topics on FPL’s return are clear: building wildcard drafts, tracking injuries from the international break, and evaluating their impact on their respective teams.

A sneaky interesting one is captaincy.

According to models such as Solio Analytics and FPL Copilot, Bruno Fernandes (£11.9m, 38.4% owned), who faces Spurs at home, is this week’s best option. He’ll also likely be among the most popular. Alternatives aren’t too enticing.

Going there is hardly a poor play, but it makes for a nice newsletter topic.

I already touched on this subject in this week’s Though Process series, but I’d like to expand on it.

After all, he’s the second most expensive player in the game and someone you should feel comfortable captaining from time to time if you own him. On the surface, nothing suggests you shouldn’t – he’s a 90-minute man who takes penalties and set pieces, and his expected numbers look fine.

If you’d told me before the season that he’d play all 5 opening games as number ten and average 3.80 shots, 0.36 non-penalty xG, and 0.26 xA per 90 minutes, I’d rip your hands off.

The problem is that, given this tiny sample size, you should also account for the distribution: if you remove that outlier Ipswich game in Gameweek 2, his final product looks much worse.

After adjusting, his expected assists fall to 0.09 xA/90. And while he’s still on 2.50 shots, his 0.19 npxG/90 suggests that shot quality has declined and is driven mainly by volume.

Let’s start with his goal threat.

If you remove the Ipswich game, he took 11 shots, but only 4 were inside the box, and just one was a truly big chance. He also had only 1.7 touches in the box, about the 40th percentile for his position and below his last season’s average, even though he played the second half of the season pretty deep.

Touches in the box is an extremely noisy metric and doesn’t mean much without context, but it has some predictive power: you can’t really expect Bruno to turn into a regular goal threat (like this season’s Bukayo Saka, if he keeps up what he did until now) when he doesn’t get touches in the most dangerous areas.

What’s more interesting is the drop in expected assists in those non-IPS games. Again, we’re describing a sample size of just 4 games, which is nothing.

But hey, people on FPL X are already splitting data by home and away games (never do this early in October, folks ❗), so why not look at it in more detail?

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Bruno continues to provide significant value in the build-up, according to advanced non-shot-based models, and it’s not as if he’s doing less in the final third of the pitch – he still takes 60% of the team’s set pieces, plays plenty of creative open-play passes, and ranks in the elite percentiles for passes into the box and for passes leading directly to a shot.

It’s also not as if he’s not trying difficult passes, or that he suddenly stopped playing his usual wide range of creative solutions. If you dig deeper, he still delivers verticals from both half-spaces, and his open-play crosses are well executed.

However, there’s a lack of passes from deep, both crosses and through balls, and this isn’t offset by him arriving to create inside the box (which he doesn’t do too often in general, but it would help to drive high-xA chances).

If you look at the sample size from the last season after Michael Carrick’s appointment, there were so many diagonals towards the far post and deep crosses. Partly because of positioning, as his average height of touches with the ball was a few meters lower even when playing as #10, but that alone doesn’t explain the drop.

I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but it’s just 4 games, and it might be nothing. Still, it’s worth monitoring over the next 5 GWs until the next international break.

Also, one possible explanation is that his teammates don’t take shots from his other good passes, because, as I hinted, Bruno’s execution is still good from an analytical point of view (and the eye test).

Plus, those final passes often result in headers or blocked shots – which is a definition of low xG attempts. One heavy touch, one decision-making error, poor judgement of the pass's trajectory, and you’re suddenly in a much worse shooting position.

The problem with the current United team is that they take the most shots in the Premier League, but they are ranked 5th worst for xG per shot. If you remove that Ipswich game, they are worst in the league in that metric. So you can’t really wonder why their main creators’ numbers are down.

My guess is that Bruno’s production will improve.

He still tries to get a ball into the box with crosses and passes a lot, and although he also fails a lot, the other way to look at it is that we have enough historical evidence to say his creative numbers won’t decline year over year that drastically. But it’s hard to say by how much, because United has clear issues.

So far, the only truly reliable goal threat is Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m), who has performed well in most of the games. And that isn’t enough.

It’s funny, because they have the best central progression of any Premier League team – they progress the ball through the middle most, get into the final third often, and generate a lot of shots from those build-ups, but there are simply too many poor shots and not enough good central attempts.

United also create very few dangerous shots from set pieces, another area Bruno is heavily involved in.

The upcoming game against Spurs might seem like a nice bounce-back opportunity, but I’m not so sure.

Because if we’re working with an outlier game when analysing Bruno, it’s fair to do the same with Spurs, right?

If we remove Spurs’ clash against Brentford in Gameweek 1, when the starting eleven was nothing like they were in the following weeks, they are actually ranked:

• 6th for xG conceded

• 6th for xG conceded from counters

• 7th for shots conceded

• 9th for xG per shot conceded

• 10th for goals conceded

Another example of how deceiving the table can be this early in the season:

It’s more of a wildcard issue than a captaincy problem, but it’s still useful to know Bruno and United's current situation.

• Would I sell him before Spurs? No (in most cases). Reevaluate in GW7.

• Would I have him on the wildcard? Probably not, but I’d keep the structure flexible enough.

• Would I captain him? He’s obviously someone to consider this week, despite those doubts. It’s hardly a poor play. However, I’d also consider other alternatives.

Sources close to ESPN allegedly said that Bruno has been managing an injury since United’s win over Sabah FK and passed a late fitness test just before the Fulham game. He then played three full international games, so it’s difficult to draw any sensible conclusions from those reports.

This is both unsettling and promising, depending on how you read the situation.

Because we all know what happened with Cole Palmer’s (£9.7m) final product when he played through the pain…

Look, Bruno might get a penalty, an assist, and a full bonus against Spurs on Saturday, and this article will look pretty stupid. Still, I think it’s a nice case study and analytical story that gives you an overview of the Bruno & United situation.

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What to read next?

Aaaand, we’re back, reader!

After weeks of peace, things are picking up again. A large chunk of this week’s content will likely count international break casualties and assess how those injuries will affect things going forward.

(plus, there’s still one round of international games that involve quite a few Premier League players when I’m publishing this)

But we expected that, and we’ll be prepared.

Gameweeks 6 and 7 are another popular wildcard window, and because you already know GW7 is my preferred choice, I’ll start discussing injuries as early as today.

Alright, let’s see how I’m easing back into FPL.

Gameweek 5 review: Pascal Groß’ haul

… on my bench.

After two weeks without seeing my team, I forgot how bad it was:

Yes, that’s 39 points, with 32 on the bench. It resulted in a 15-point red arrow.

The lesson from that is… there’s no lesson unless you made a benching decision based on a flawed process, which I don’t think was the case here (and you know I own my mistakes).

Most of the time, those benched points also mean you have a robust team and will use those players in upcoming gameweeks, so it’s actually a good thing they perform. And with Brighton playing Sunderland in Gameweek 6, that trio is coming back swiftly.

Let’s see whether benching my two Leeds players against Arsenal will have the same effect this week.

I hope it won’t, as I don’t think DCL and Muharemovič can do this:

… and this:

If you’ve got a silly amount of free time, I wrote a deep dive into long-range shooting last season.

The good thing about reading this is that you will always have a counter-argument to all those poor takes on social media about shots outside the box:

As a gift, I’m unlocking this premium article for you for the next 72 hours.

Anyway.

I’m entering Gameweek 6 with 2 free transfers and £1.6 million in the bank to address any potential issues.

The bus team is as follows:

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Gameweek 6 team: Key areas to focus on

When I open the team in the FPL app instead of Solio, it shows zero yellow flags (which is a bit of a miracle), even though there was news that Bruno Fernandes played a few games with some pain.

That’s highly unsettling, given he’s a £11.9 million player whose value isn’t really there unless you plan to captain him often enough.

I’m not 100% convinced I want to do that, even this week.

It’s a combination of his performances and Spurs’ defensive performances. I’ll most likely write a standalone article about Bruno this week, so just briefly:

With only 5 GWs in, there’s merit in removing that outlier Ipswich game to get a more realistic picture.

If you do that, you find he’s on 0.09 xA per 90 minutes, which is below average and a massive drop from last season’s 0.36 (99th percentile). It’s data from a tiny sample size, and he still plays many tough passes, so it’s probably just a matter of time that number increases, but this is simply the current state of things.

He’s now producing 2.50 shots per 90 outside that IPS clash, with xG in the 70th percentile, but if you look deeper, it’s kinda meh – outside the IPS game, it’s 11 shots, with 7 out of the box.

And only one truly dangerous attempt, which means the final product isn’t too enticing for the price.

I’m not saying he’s a sell, but if you factor in the quality of Spurs’ defence, he may not be the standout captaincy pick this week.

Again, if we remove Spurs’ outlier game, which happened in Gameweek 1 against Brentford when the team was nothing like it was in the following weeks, they are actually ranked:

• 6th for xG conceded

• 6th for xG conceded from counters

• 7th for shots conceded

• 9th for xG per shot conceded

• 10th for goals conceded

Not elite, but maybe not numbers you’d expect from a team that sits here:

The good news for United is that Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.9m) could miss the game with an IB injury, which should weaken their backline somewhat. Nothing is confirmed yet, though.

Most likely, I’ll keep Bruno, mainly because it’s probably the last week before I play my wildcard.

If I won’t captain him, is Bukayo Saka the second-best choice and my GW6 transfer?

Well…

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Welcome back, reader.

I’m not a big fan of international football, but it’s hardly the end of the world, since it can’t stop me from pressing some keys on my keyboard. Now that I love.

Do you remember my early-August previews, where I covered all 20 Premier League teams and highlighted 3 things to watch for each?

Well, today we’ll review those points after five FPL Gameweeks have been completed.

I thoroughly enjoyed writing this and revisiting those pre-season assumptions, and I hope you will too.

Let’s dive straight in!

Arsenal

🥇 Rumours about Ezri Konsa and a new left winger

As usual, some rumours prove true, others not. Ezri Konsa signed for Arsenal in late August, and it took him a while to regain match fitness. Cristian Mosquera’s injury then accelerated the process – the Englishman made his first start in Gameweek 3 and has since played the full 90 minutes three times in a row.

For £4.6m, he offers a cheap way into the Gunners’ defence, being in almost 20% of FPL teams as of writing. So far, he’s on 7.40 DEFCONs/90, hitting the threshold once and coming close once more. He also had a nice shot from a corner.

At that price tag, that’s enough, really, given Arsenal’s clean-sheet prospects.

Arsenal haven’t bought a new left winger.

Christos Tzolis (£6.3m) remains the top choice at that position, but after the initial hype, reality set in. He’s averaged 73 minutes per game, even before the full Champions League/cups frenzy begins, and his goal threat is modest, averaging fewer than 1 shot per game. And those shots aren’t very dangerous.

He’s impactful in real life, adding value in the build-up and creativity in the final third through his passing and runs.

It’s just not that exciting in FPL when you lack goal threat and secure minutes…

His face on FPL Copilot’s player card says it all

🥈 How quickly Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice will be eased back

Bukayo Saka (£9.5m) almost instantly. He played 67 minutes in Gameweek 1, then averaged 87 minutes in the next four games.

Now that Arsenal has Tzolis’ creativity and Odegaard in the number ten position, we’ve been watching an entirely different Saka from last season: he’s doing very little creating in the final third, but he basically lives in the box, receiving extremely close to goal and generating a high volume of great shots.

In that area, he has Haaland-esque numbers not only in surface-level expected metrics but also in more advanced ones. An extremely interesting pick right now.

Let’s see his minutes going forward.

Declan Rice (£7.4m)? Something similar to Saka in terms of minutes played. However, given his current performances, he may warrant more load management…

From a purely footballing perspective, he’s a shadow of himself defensively. Although his football intelligence hasn’t gone anywhere, he’s taking a while to get going.

He’s still producing a good volume of defensive contributions, but only met the threshold in 20% of games.

Not an FPL pick right now at that steep price.

🥉 The dynamics between Declan Rice and Bruno Guimarães

Well, it’s extremely underwhelming. Bruno Guimarães (£6.7m) has been gradually eased back after the injury, so we didn’t really see even 50% of the potential the double pivot could have had.

Aston Villa

🥇 What role will Johan Manzambi play, and when will he be back fit

That’s a hot topic right now.

Sadly, he started just one game, so the information is very limited, even though some people will try to convince you that after those 115 minutes we have everything we need.

We don’t.

The good news is that he played as #10, was pretty trigger-happy, and even scored a goal from the 6-yard box. Villa’s first proper fixture swing comes in Gameweek 11 (maybe GW9 in some scenarios), and by then we’ll know much better.

Definitely one to watch.

Fixtures ranked by expected goals difference using the Solio Analytics model

🥈 Will Alejandro Garnacho become a preferred LW?

With 31 minutes played across those 5 games while reportedly fit, no, it doesn’t seem so.

Unai Emery playing 19-year-old George Hemmings says it all.

And with Johan Manzambi (£5.9m) as number ten and Emi Buendía (£5.9m) a logical first choice at LW, that story is no longer relevant.

🥉 Minutes for Brian Madjo + monitoring Nicolas Jackson rumours

Brian Madjo (£5.4m) was injured in the final pre-season friendly and has been sidelined since.

The rumours about Nicolas Jackson (£6.5m) proved true, and he’s Villa’s new number nine. He’s not excelling, but he isn’t poor either.

No need to rush into buying him: we still need to see more.

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Brighton

🥇 Luka Vuškovič, and it’s not even close

Some players never live up to the pre-season hype. Luka Vuškovič (£5.0m) isn’t one of them.

He’s a firm part of Brighton’s centre-back pairing, having played 90 minutes in 80% of games so far, averaging 8.84 DEFCONs/p90, hitting the threshold twice and narrowly missing it twice.

Also, as expected, his goal threat is huge, and he’s their most frequent shooter from set pieces. Brighton have also kept three clean sheets already, which has propelled him to 5th place among the game's highest-scoring defenders.

🥈 Will they pick up where they left off defensively?

That leads me nicely on to another point.

Clean sheets are there, but they are ranked 7th worst in xG conceded, despite that Aston Villa demolition in GW1.

While their frantic pressing and counter-pressing clearly work in the offence, it also sees them regularly allowing extremely dangerous shots – it happened against all of Chelsea, Leeds, Coventry and Arsenal.

They have the league’s worst xG per shot conceded, which clearly shows what’s happening. Looking deeper, they concede a lot of shots, and those shots are often close to goal, especially when defending quick transitions.

🥉 Georginio vs Kostoulas for #9 role

Rutter’s injury opened the door for Charalampos Kostoulas (£5.6m), and he hasn’t looked back. I’m not surprised. Do you remember the article I wrote about the Greek wonderkid more than a year ago?

During my career in professional football, I identified quite a few talented players and fought some behind-the-scenes battles with Brighton, mostly losing ones, obviously. Kostoulas wasn’t one of them, but I knew instantly when I saw him play.

In the article, I was in awe of his carrying skills, and his advanced metrics truly show the impact his running and dribbling have for Brighton in the final third. It certainly helps him get into the box often and take a lot of good shots.

Rutter is fit to play again, and Promise David waits for his chance, but I can’t imagine Hürzeler is anything other than delighted with Kostoulas.

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Bournemouth

🥇 Their overall performances – it’s super important given the juicy fixture swing in GW7

When you factor in their tricky opening fixture run, being ranked 7th for xGC (the gap to 3rd is minimal) isn’t too bad.

Their attack is rather average, but the football they play generally doesn’t hurt your eyes. If you look at more advanced metrics, many things look quite nice given the context of tough fixtures and playing under a new manager.

They are a direct, quick-to-shoot, transitional team, so let’s see how they will unlock some of the more settled blocks.

I wouldn’t be too afraid to pick 1 or 2 of their players once the fixtures turn in GW7.

The current Solio’s expected points

🥈 There are quite a lot of injuries and xMins question marks

Many of these questions have already been answered.

The trio of António Silva (£5.0m), James Hill (£5.5m), and Adrien Truffert (£5.4m) is nailed, and you can say the same about Marcus Tavernier (£6.1m), Alex Scott (£6.1m), Rayan (£6.3m), and Evanilson (£6.0m). That’s a pool of potential picks.

The only worry is the minutes of some of them once the European League group stage starts.

I’ll keep this short, as I will discuss Bournemouth in the Wildcard 6 article.

🥉 Rayan’s output

Rayan’s (£6.3m) output in goals and assists is a big fat zero. When it comes to his performances and underlying stats, the jury is still out.

He shoots a lot, and some of those shots were from pretty nice locations. However, finishing is terrible, and he doesn’t create much.

Let’s discuss him in more depth next week.

Brentford

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Alright, reader.

Last season, I published this type of article in Gameweek 10, so with about double the data we have now:

To remind you, a 9- to 10-week sample is historically sufficient to tell whether some macro trends will persist for the rest of the season. After Gameweek 5, it still won’t be enough to draw definitive conclusions.

But we can observe what’s happening, recognise why, and make some educated guesses.

By publishing this article, I will probably either scare you or give you some hope, but we will know the real state of things fairly soon (mid-November). As I write this paragraph, I don’t know how bad it is.

If you read this, there’s probably at least a slight spoiler in the title, since I always write it last.

Exciting.

Let’s get into it.

Who Got The Assist best season review out there?

Before I start the analysis, I’d like to give a shout-out to Tom from Who Got The Assist Podcast. Several months ago, he released one of the best articles I read last season.

I recommend you check it out.

It was the season’s review, which included several interesting DEFCON data points. It may also have offered some hope for the current season – it confirmed my lingering suspicion that last campaign could have been a complete outlier.

I don’t want to cannibalise Tom’s piece by listing the data, so just briefly: the previous campaign was notable because FPL DEFs scored 2,829 points more than in 24/25, a 30.72% year-on-year rise.

Your first thought is that DEFCON killed the game.

But not so fast.

Defenders hit the DEFCON threshold 822 times, which is 1,644 extra points. But what about the remaining 1,185 points? Simply put, those points came from clean sheets, set pieces, long throws, and all the trends we were mapping on Data Dribble last season.

Well, here we go again.

A Brighton Brighter future upon us?

Depending on how big your PTSD from last season is, you might or might not recall that we started it with a never-ending stream of hauling defenders. It was borderline absurd.

There were clean sheets, goals, assists, DEFCONs, a full bonus, all of it. And MIDs were abysmal, lacking the final product you’d expect.

After Gameweek 5 last season, the distribution of the top 20 highest-scoring players in the FPL was as follows:

• 9x DEFs

• 5x MIDs (and one of them was Moisés Caicedo, so…)

• 4x FWD

• 2x GK

That’s essentially 12 defensive players in the top twenty.

This year, things are looking more normal:

• 10x MID

  • Pascal Groß

  • Kevin Schade

  • Rayan Cherki

  • Antoine Semenyo

  • Cody Gakpo

  • Bukayo Saka

  • Mohamed Belloumi

  • Bruno Fernandes

  • Marcus Tavernier

  • Alex Scott

• 7x DEF:

  • James Tarkowski

  • Jayden Bogle

  • Maxim De Cuyper (playing out of position in all 5 games, so it’s effectively 6 DEFs)

  • Joško Gvardiol

  • Luka Vuškovič

  • Lewis Hall

  • Marc Guéhi

• 3x FWD:

  • 🤖

  • Alexander Isak

  • João Pedro

• 2x GK:

  • Konstantinos Tzolakis

  • David Raya

If you noticed the numbers don’t quite add up, you’re right: David Raya, Marc Guéhi, and Alex Scott are tied for 20th place.

Maxim De Cuyper played the whole season as a winger, and the list includes ten other midfielders, along with three forwards you’d expect to perform well: Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak, and João Pedro.

Let’s look at how those defenders earned their points. We don’t need to discuss De Cuyper:

James Tarkowski (£6.1m): Each morning, the sun comes up. Sometimes you don’t see it, but it’s always there, behind the clouds.

James Tarkowski is like this DEFCON-producing sun. The clouds are the structure that didn’t let you pick him, since he costs £6.1 million, um.

The Englishman is on 10.2 defensive contributions per 90, which means 14 players with at least four stars average more, but the distribution shows how reliable he is:

• He hit the threshold 60% of the time

• One time, he racked up a frustrating 9 defensive contributions

• The other time, he was on 8

On top of that, Everton kept three clean sheets. Some of them were rather lucky, but let’s give some credit to Jordan Pickford’s shot-stopping.

Tarkowski also scored a goal from a set-piece, picking up a super-random second ball after Bournemouth’s defensive error. This season, he’s not even the most frequent set-piece target.

Then there’s an assist for Thierno Barry’s goal last gameweek. You be the judge of how repeatable this is.

However, with his historical floor, it’s okay to position yourself to get lucky.

I’m just demonstrating how volatile things can be at this phase of the season. Anyway, he has the potential to remain among the highest-scoring defenders for the rest of the season just because of the type of player he is.

Jayden Bogle (£4.6m): 3.90 DEFCONs p90, but who cares – he scored two goals. One was a fuggazi goal by Calvert-Lewin, but it was too late for the game to update when this decision was made.

Joško Gvardiol (£5.7m): 6.40 DEFCONs p90, but who cares #2 – one goal, 3 assists, 2 clean sheets. It adds up over five games. That production will slow down. That’s like 99,99999% certain.

However, he can definitely become one of the highest-scoring DEFs out there, simply because he’s one of the most nailed City players and can produce some final output quite regularly.

Luka Vuškovič (£5.0m): He’s a genuine aerial threat and the most frequent recipient of Brighton corners. On top of that, he averages 8.84 DEFCONs p90 (4, 8, 10, 9, 12). That screams pretty sustainable.

Lewis Hall (£5.3m): Well, well, well, look at that.

• 9.22 DEFCONs p90

• 60% hit rate

• the most frequent set-piece taker

• involved in corner routines

• open-play creativity

Do we finally get our full-back unicorn, who will challenge the centre-back beasts racking up DEFCONs and posing an aerial threat?

We’ll find out pretty soon.

By the way, these are Solio Analytics’ top 10 defenders, ranked by predicted points for the upcoming 8 Gameweeks:

All right, I think that’s enough. We’ve just seen that defenders’ returns are still noisy.

It all makes sense: in those short bursts of games, someone always has a run of attacking returns/clean sheets, but it can’t continue at the same rate over 38 gameweeks. In the long term, those players’ outputs will regress towards the mean, and those DEFs who tick along will join the party.

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Do teams still engage in aerial duels?

One key finding from my last season’s article, based on a substantial sample of seasons, is that early-season trends in aerial duels tend to persist for the rest of the season.

Although it might seem counterintuitive, when it comes to the overall volume of contested aerial duels, about 20-25% of the season, which is GW8/9, is sufficient to tell what the rest of the season will look like. Tactical adjustments take time, so the trajectory rarely bends.

As you probably know, a large share of defenders’ DEFCONs are clearances (“C” in CBITs), including headed ones, so last season’s year-over-year 30%+ increase in aerial duels was a big deal.

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Alright.

The opening phase of the 26/27 season is over.

We’ve reached a three-week international break, followed by another popular wildcard window in Gameweek 6.

Our next Q&A is coming up: please leave your questions in the comments, and I’ll do my best to answer as many as humanly possible before the deadline (Sat 10 Oct, 12:00 CET). The session will start on Friday to gather as much information as possible.

📅 The IB content schedule

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Alright guys.

Here’s my Gameweek 5 team:

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Alright, reader.

The final gameweek before the unprecedented 3-week international break is upon us.

No one can prepare you for the void you will feel.

Just as no one could have prepared you for finding out that Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s second goal was credited to him, but it was too late for FPL points to be updated.

Data Dribble is different. It prepares you for things:

The case for Ipswich

Perhaps you hoped I would open with one of those teams about to enter a favourable run of fixtures.

Which Bournemouth and Fulham players to pick, how to assess Newcastle properly, and whether to buy Morgan Gibbs-White. Or Neco Williams? And what about Daniel Muñoz? Don’t worry, I’ll get to that.

However, after reading this section, you might fall for certain Ipswich enablers. Ed Sheeran did, so why wouldn’t you?

The Tractor Boys are certainly entering an enticing period. If you look at the expected goals difference table powered by Solio Analytics’ model, they don’t exactly stand out, but Everton, Fulham, City, Forest, Hull, Bournemouth, Spurs, and Aston Villa over the next eight Gameweeks don’t look too bad:

Their public perception is a bit skewed by the thrashing they took from Manchester United, led by Bruno Fernandes’ historic haul, but otherwise they’ve been solid.

We’re still working with a sample size of just 4 games, and most of what’s happening is still noise, so we’ll refrain from making strong statements and refine our assumptions each week.

However, there are already several things to notice about players and teams.

Now, Palace’s Axel Disasi was sent off in the 34th minute, Liverpool scored two goals in the opening 10 minutes, and Sunderland… are Sunderland.

So, while it’s not a definitive signal that something extraordinary is brewing, it’s something worth monitoring, especially since you know I’ve frequently praised their transfer business and discussed Exequiel Palacios several times. So far, he’s excellent.

For FPL picks, those £4m DEFs are worth discussing in more detail. There are three:

• Dara O’Shea (9.75 DEFCONs/90, 50% hit rate, 0.02 npxG and 0.06 xA)

• Issa Diop (8.75 DEFCONs/90, 50% hit rate, zero npxG and 0.04 xA)

• Leif Davis (4.75 DEFCONs/90, 0% hit rate, 0.29 npxG and 0.11 xA p90)

Most attempts from corners: Dara O’Shea (3)

Ipswich are getting a lot of corners, and while their quality is rather questionable, O’Shea already has 3 shots from them, making him a pretty nice pick when you also factor in his DEFCON production.

As a fullback, he has minor assist potential, though he’s not the type of player who would create much threat that way.

The same cannot be said about Leif Davis, whose 0.29 npxG and 0.11 xA p90 so far are winger-like figures.

Again, I highly doubt this won’t visibly regress towards the mean as we move through the season, but it’s good news that he plays this attacking role in the Prem.

Don’t show this shot map to Yoane Wissa’s owners:

I wouldn’t mind having a structure with a £4m Ipswich defender on the wildcard. Just make sure he’s a last resort and that you don’t play him too often. As long as he does his job and lets you build a stronger team week in, week out, I think it’s a good play.

Exequiel Palacios, Julio Enciso and Emersonn are other standout Ipswich players at the moment, but none of them makes the same sense for squad-building and upside as those budget defenders.

To highlight someone who didn’t quite catch the Premier League’s tempo, it’s Daizen Maeda, who gives the impression of an athlete who loves running but would rather do it without that round thing someone tries to pass to him. Watching him dribble with it is painful (can Chris confirm this in the comments?).

In terms of team data, they certainly don’t look like complete whipping boys. They create chances, score goals, and their mid-block, which likes to counter-attack and get shots quickly after gaining possession, can cause problems. They need to improve their pressing quickly, but it’s still a team full of new players, and most of the season is left.

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Morgan Gibbs-White in detail: How does the new system affect his threat level?

Each week, some player gets so hyped up on FPL Twitter that you’d think your season ends right now if you don’t own him.

This time, it’s Morgan Gibbs-White (£8m), who, funnily enough, is only the 3rd most-bought-in player this week after Morgan Rogers and… Pascal Gross?

I already discussed MGW last week when I had some doubts, so let’s follow up in a bit more detail, because the fixtures certainly look nice.

I flagged Nottingham Forest during pre-season as one of the teams that is difficult to read but could potentially become a source of FPL assets. It was a combination of transfer business, existing players, the system, and Oliver Glasner.

Based on our tiny sample, we can see some glimpses.

First, they’ve been tough to crack so far. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have allowed fewer quality chances, and they don’t concede too many goals:

• 4 goals conceded from 4.1 xG

• 5th fewest shots allowed

• 7th best xG per shot allowed

• 2nd best xG conceded from fast transitions

• Most second balls won in the defensive third, with the 2nd best success rate

• Aerially dominant

• 3rd lowest possession percentage, and 5th lowest defensive block

This looks like a sturdy defence that’s annoying to play against.

Now, what does it mean for MGW and his attacking upside?

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For this week’s free edition of the Data Dribble newsletter, I decided to serve up a fun, short appetiser before Thursday’s deep dive.

The initial idea was to dive into the data and pick 3 players who started the season with a bang, perhaps unexpectedly. You know – ignore the fact that it’s just a 4-game sample, treat it as an appreciation post that simply describes what’s happening on the pitch, and an opportunity to share some interesting numbers.

But then I went down a rabbit hole with Martin Ødegaard (£6.7m) and decided this would be exclusively about him.

Let’s do this.

Martin Ødegaard: Two plus eight equals ten

Look, I know he isn’t exactly a low-key player or a big revelation, but I often feel he doesn’t get the respect he deserves from a large chunk of the football community.

Some high-profile tacticos were even pretty vocal about him being a liability and about Arsenal being a better team without him, which is… a pretty audacious statement.

I disagree and think he was always highly influential in real life.

In fantasy, he wasn’t a viable pick most of the time because of the lack of goal threat, but this season his role shifted to a pure #10, and he suddenly found his way into 20% of FPL teams. Which doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good idea, but he surely has the exposure now.

We now have a 6-season sample of Ødegaard in the Premier League, which is enough to say he most likely never poses a major goal threat, even when playing advanced. That assumption is based on games when he played a similar role.

So far this season, he’s on about 1.75 non-penalty shots and 0.30 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes (with 0.17 xG/shot), which looks enticing when you consider his creative numbers we’ll discuss in a minute. However, we’re in Gameweek 5, not Gameweek 15. If I had to make a bet, I’d say those numbers are inflated by favourable fixtures and limited minutes, and will regress, especially if he fails to maintain a solid shot volume.

Look at the shot map. It hints at why to stay cautious.

It’s just 6 shots.

Three of them out of the box.

Only one truly big chance from a central area.

Also, historical evidence:

❗ I looked at about 2,500 minutes of data from his advanced times in previous Arsenal seasons, and there was never a high volume of central attempts.

It’s a different team in a different context, so I don’t want to rule that possibility out.

But it’s an educated guess.

HOWEVER.

Although it’s difficult to predict how much he’ll regress (or whether he definitely will, though he likely will), he’s also an excellent chance creator…

In previous seasons, Ødegaard was highly influential creatively, producing expected assists in the 90th percentile for 23/24, 24/25, and 25/26 combined, across about 7,500 minutes.

As a pure #8, he averaged 0.25 xA per 90 from 207 passes that directly led to a shot. While he performs some set-piece duties, 77% of those came from open play. That’s a serious volume of chance creation.

💡 He clearly has a broad range of solutions in his repertoire. In recent times, he has loved playing vertical through balls from both half-spaces, as well as those nice diagonals from the right half-space to the far post.

All Arsenal fans reading this know.

There was much more, but these passes stood out.

So far this season, we’re seeing a slightly different version of Ødegaard.

He’s clearly closer to goal now, and his final passes reflect that. His (small sample size alert) xA shot up to 0.38 p90, and it’s clear why when you look beneath that number. The Norwegian has already directly created 12 shots, and played most of these passes high.

He still enjoys verticals from the right for the runners behind, but being close to the box certainly helps.

His average position for touches with the ball is higher than Rayan Cherki’s, Marcus Tavernier’s, or Bruno Fernandes’. Compared with last season, it’s about 5 metres higher. You might argue that this could be affected by Arsenal playing a higher block in those easy fixtures, but they weren’t, really. It was comparable to last season’s average.

Ødegaard’s impact in the final third is immense. In fact, in the goal probability added model that measures how his touches with the ball increase the team’s chance to score, he ranks at the very top of the league. Playing for Arsenal certainly helps, but he directs the play, so give him the credit.

Oh, and then there’s his off-ball work.

What if I told you he’s the team’s most active tackler, and wins plenty of balls because he times them so well?

Or that he’s in the box a lot, and his number of touches there is on a level with elite Premier League strikers? Thanks to his intelligence, he can receive in dangerous areas and make something happen. Of course, it will be interesting to see how this evolves.

FPL prospects: Currently priced at £6.7m, he has moved from an absolute no-go to someone to consider.

I wouldn’t say you need to rip your team apart for him, and while he’s viable now, he wouldn’t rank among my top 5 midfielders, meaning my favourite Arsenal stack still involves either a defensive triple-up or a defensive double-up and Saka.

It’s still early, and those numbers will stabilise later – you can reasonably expect his creative numbers to be great, but his goal threat is still something to monitor.

Plus, there’s massive competition for those budget(ish) midfielders, so there are more ways to skin the cat. Marcus Tavernier costs £6.1m, Pascal Gross £5.7m, Elliot Anderson £6.3m, Enzo Fernández £6.9m, and I could go on.

On the other hand, picking a #10 from a clear title contender is hardly a mistake when everyone is healthy and playing well.

This is how Solio Analytics’ model ranks MIDs priced at £7 or fewer up until Gameweek 11:

That’s all for today.

Later this week, I plan to discuss several emerging trends arising from the confusing early-season noise. I’m noticing quite a few interesting things and can’t wait to share them with you.

See you very soon!

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What to read next?

Never in my career have I found evaluating teams as challenging as this Premier League season.

However, Gameweek 4 gave us a useful dose of new information.

I’m noticing things, and I can’t wait to have a much more accurate picture a few weeks after the international break, then start extracting real value around Gameweek 12. Especially for match-up analysis.

Anyway, for my team and plans, Gameweek 5 requires quite a lot of strategic thinking, so let’s get to it.

Gameweek 4 Review

As usual, let’s start with a short recap.

In Gameweek 4, I was underexposed to Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool players, and I wanted to keep both Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m) for this week’s clash against Fulham, so I decided to use a Free Hit.

The Daily Fantasy Sports player in me is certainly happy with a 98-pointer, a 9-point green arrow, and the fact that the new team outscored the original one.

It was a bit of a disorganised week.

I made a late decision to start Raya and Szoboszlai instead of Barcola and Kinský. Even though I got lucky and gained 7 points, I threw away a good process, as Bradley Barcola (£8.0m) started the game and Spurs had another solid(ish) defensive performance. Third in a row, actually.

I don’t want to do this too often – you can’t control what players do once the GW starts, but a single gameweek involves a lot of luck, and the outcome could go the other way. I’d be annoyed with myself if that happened.

It wasn’t an analytical mistake, as playing Raya and Szoboszlai in those match-ups, in stacks, and on-pitch link-up (or with a CoVar, as it’s modern to say these days) is hardly wrong, but it’s about maintaining some decision-making consistency throughout the season.

Other than that, nothing much to add.

The most important stuff was what happened in the Liverpool and Fulham game, along with Chelsea’s attackers continuing to produce, but because it’s relevant to my Gameweek 5 selection, we’ll discuss it later.

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Gameweek 5 team: 3 areas to focus

Alright.

I’m returning to my old team with 3 free transfers, a Wildcard, and £0.0 in the bank:

Looking at it, several things immediately stand out:

1️⃣ I don’t want to start Chris Richards against my Leeds double-up of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Tarik Muharemovič

Reasoning: I don’t usually hedge unless it’s a very specific situation (for example, when saving a transfer matters more than sacrificing some EV), or when two players have high effective ownership and great ceilings.

I don’t think this is it.

Crystal Palace are ranked bottom of the league for xG conceded. I’m well aware that:

• it’s a 4-game sample

• one of the games was against Manchester City

• Axel Disasi was sent off in the 34th minute last week against Ipswich

… but it still doesn’t make Richards someone I’d need to play and let him cap my team's ceiling.

Sure, I can imagine some extreme scenarios when he hauls:

• Leeds conceded quite a few good shots from set-pieces this season (bottom 5 for xCG from it)

• Richards met the DEFCON threshold in 50% of cases

• … and was 1 defensive contribution short of meeting it against Fulham

… but there are also complete bust scenarios. Axel Disasi will obviously sit that one out, joining the first-choice keeper Dean Henderson, and potentially Jaydee Canvot, who was put on the stands by Pierre Sage.

Yeah, that really happened – the French manager put a 20-year-old player not on the bench, but on the stands, because of “sporting reasons”. ❗

In this turmoil, sharp betting markets (long-term profitable bettors) favour Leeds quite substantially. Check this prediction from Solio’s platform:

2️⃣ Benching my complete Brighton triple-up against Arsenal seems sensible.

At the same time, I don’t need to sell any of them, as they face Sunderland after the international break. The potential issue is that Diego Gómez might lose his place in the starting eleven before then.

Reasoning:

This is quite straightforward.

Arsenal had their first not-that-good defensive game against Sunderland, but that doesn’t make them suddenly poor. Also, I’m not really under pressure to start Pascal Groß (£5.6m) because my front six looks all right.

Some people will bench some ARS defenders this week because “they think Brighton will score”, but I haven’t read any good analysis explaining why that should happen yet.

Sure, it might, but it’s also wishful thinking.

As for Gómez:

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Alright, guys.

Welcome to another Q&A!

You know the drill – please leave your questions in the comments, and I’ll do my best to answer as many as possible before Friday’s deadline (Fri 18 Sep, 19:30 CE…

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Alright, guys.

My Gameweek 4 team will be a Free Hit team.

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Welcome back, reader!

It’s the second consecutive week of building Wildcard and Free Hit teams on Data Dribble, and not much has changed in the landscape, the general uncertainty, or my preferred approach to building them.

If you’re interested in some (game) theory, I recommend checking last week’s deep dive:

This time, we’ll discuss different picks and focus on some player and team data/specifics.

Building the Wildcard

For me, a few things are non-negotiable for the Gameweek 4 wildcard: structure is king, and you need to load up on Arsenal. Obvious, I know. Still, this section will let me highlight a few things I find fascinating, so… don’t skip it.

In this game we love, no one is truly essential, and you can’t really commit a crime against FPL by not picking someone. However, from a purely strategic perspective, does it really make sense to snub a triple-up from a team that is so dominant when on unlimited transfers?

Arsenal’s defensive superiority against Coventry and Aston Villa was nothing unusual, but allowing Chelsea just 0.39 xG, with ZERO shots from central areas inside the box, is a major statement.

They then followed up by conceding 0.22 xG away to Napoli. The Italian side managed just two attempts from inside the box: one had 0.08 xG and the other 0.06 xG. In “eye-test” terms, both shots came from a wide angle and were blocked.

Averaging 0.04 xG per shot conceded is also simply absurd. I’m well aware we’re discussing a tiny sample of 4 games, but if you account for previous defensively dominant seasons and the fact that they miss William Saliba, it’s strong information to work with.

Their defensive prowess isn’t anything new.

What about the attack?

Poor Napoli conceded 4.1 xG (!) from 26 shots, including 14 central attempts and 3 inside the 6-yard box. In the Premier League, they have about 5 xG, which ranks them 6th to 9th, depending on what model you use, though that is not very useful information at this stage of the season.

Currently, their xG is 73% open play and 27% set pieces. Last season, their share of set pieces was around 33%, so it’s probably on course to end up somewhere similar. It’s not like Arsenal are creating so many more open-play shots than last season, as I often heard.

But yeah, it was true against Napoli.

Anyway, probably the most interesting news about their attack is Martin Ødegaard (£6.7m) playing the #10 role. In the distant past, he wasn’t that dangerous even when playing more advanced, but it seems he’s enjoying life at the moment.

In the Champions League game, he created 6 passes leading directly to a shot (1.33 xA) and is extremely creative in the Prem, putting up strong numbers: he’s racking up box passes, key passes, and xA even though Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka share all the set pieces, and there’s nothing left for him.

He also has 6 shots, 3 of them inside the box. For just £6.7m, those numbers are promising, provided he continues to produce them in a similar fashion, which we don’t know yet.

If I were to rank my favourite Arsenal stacks, it would probably still be:

🥇 3x DEF/wRaya or 2x DEF + Bukayo Saka (very close, both nice)
🥈 2x DEF + Martin Ødegaard
🥉 2x DEF/wRaya + Ødegaard/Saka

Saka’s routes to points as per FPL Copilot

At this stage, I think it’s worth considering paying £2.8 million more for Bukayo Saka (£9.5m) and his elite production, set-pieces, and penalties, and to hop off when needed, rather than the other way round.

It’s structurally more convenient.

But it also depends on a million other things, so if you like Ødegaard-draft, why not. In defence, Gabriel, Calafiori, and Konsa are all great, depending on your structural needs (mainly the Haaland vs no-Haaland question).

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Kai Havertz is an influential player in real life, but I don’t think he offers better value than the budget FWDs we can choose from, and I’m not too keen to pour another £7.5 million into the FWD position.

Chelsea picks and the United problem

Another obvious group is Chelsea, as they face Hull at home in Gameweek 4.

In a nutshell, I don’t mind tripling up on them, especially when you captain Cole Palmer (£9.7m) or João Pedro (£7.7m), as you’re essentially betting that they will do really well and exposing yourself to extreme outcomes.

Plus, there’s a pretty tangible link-up between that front three.

I wrote a standalone free article about Chelsea this week that answers the most burning questions:

Now, on to the more niche picks.

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Chelsea picks are this week’s flavour. I compiled the most-asked questions and shared my opinion. Short, sweet, and straight to the point.

Let’s go.

1️⃣ Are Hull good defence?

Look, you need to be careful adopting the opinions of people who just discovered football analytics exists and use the word regressionbutwithnocontext to describe pretty much everything that happens early in the season.

But let’s not pretend Hull can keep defying the laws of probability. They managed it in the previous campaign*, when they conceded 61 actual goals from 75 predicted, and got 72 points from… 54 predicted (oof). However, those 61 goals were still the 6th most in the Championship.

*There was nothing that would stand out in the 21/22, 22/23, and 23/24 seasons. In the 24/25? Pretty unlucky: 13th in xPoints, 21st in reality. So, yeah…

It’s a different team in a different context now, but I wanted to show that even massive overperformance doesn’t mean they won’t start conceding.

Some say they concede a high volume of low-quality shots from distance, wide angles, and blocked shots because so many bodies are between the attacker and their goalkeeper. Their low-block is perfect!

Uhm, their low-block is… well, really low. It’s the lowest out there, with an average distance of defensive touches of about 41 metres from their goal and a 29% possession percentage. Both are extremely low. But their 0.11 xG/shot conceded isn’t out of the ordinary (8 other teams are on par or worse), and if you look at those shots, it’s not as if all of them are poor:

• 44 shots conceded, but just 12 out of the box

• 24 centrally

And when you dig even deeper, you find that the opponent’s players posted terrible xGOT numbers, meaning their finishing was questionable, to say the least. Just look at what Emi Buendía and John McGinn did there:

One thing not to like is how well they defend set-pieces, but in the bigger picture, it doesn’t matter too much. By the way, the table of the best xGC performers in set-pieces so far is funny – Arsenal, then… Coventry, Hull, and Ipswich. Someone did their homework.

The bottom line is that allowing 5 xG over three games and conceding zero actual goals simply isn’t sustainable long-term. That’s the fact. Could that streak continue against Chelsea? It could, as much weirder things have happened in football.

But you’d need to have strong conviction to bet on it.

2️⃣ Is Cole Palmer even the best captain in GW4?

When we talk pure EV (expected value/expected points), it’s still just a guessing game, though an educated one.

He’s already taken 12 shots, and even though most weren’t particularly dangerous, that volume is a positive signal.

It’s always annoying to work with tiny sample sizes, but advanced metrics paint an optimistic picture – he posts elite numbers in goal probability added running metrics, meaning his carrying actually moves the ball into dangerous areas, and he has a great success rate 1v1.

The eye test certainly shows he’s moving better than last year, but it’s nice to see tangible numbers. That he can move pain-free and wherever he likes, with Xabi Alonso’s permission, means he can constantly receive the ball in dangerous positions. He’s dangerous both on and off the ball.

He also always plays 90 minutes, and you can expect him to take penalties, like the other night. Oh, and did I mention he faces Hull at home?

“So many routes to the points” depicted by FPL Copilot:

Even though we still don’t know whether we’re seeing the Palmer 23/24 or 24/25 version, we can reasonably expect that with João Pedro, Morgan Rogers, and Xabi Alonso along, the ceiling is there.

It’s a gameweek where the captaincy won’t be one-sided, because a lot of people will still captain Erling Haaland and Pedro, so there’s potential for a fine rank boost from Palmer without risking too much, especially when you already own that FWD duo.

There’s probably no reason (unless you have a good one) to play it on Rogers, because it’s the same “uncertain” situation as with Palmer, just with a lower ceiling and less security. Owning him is enough.

Pedro is fine. We know exactly how he performs, and he’s great again this season – the low sample size shouldn’t bother you in this specific situation.

If you own a Chelsea attacking triple-up, captaining one of their players makes perfect sense – with that stack, you’re basically saying you’re bullish on Chelsea doing well, and you’re chasing this extreme outcome.

3️⃣ Last week, I bought Cherki/Foden/Semenyo, and it failed miserably. Why should I buy Chelsea now?

Well, that’s an entirely different spot.

The City players you bought were much more punty than the Chelsea picks. There are many more xMin problems with players like Cherki or Foden, whereas Chelsea are more of a long-term project:

• Cole Palmer: 3x 90 minutes

• Morgan Rogers: 82, 90, and 87 minutes

• João Pedro: 3x 90 minutes

So far, everyone is performing well, and I see no reason for that to change.

They also don’t play any European football, and when you look at their fixture run, there’s no sell-pressure any time soon.

Look at this Solio Analytics fixture ticker, ranked by predicted goal difference:

You can hold them for pretty much as long as you like.

4️⃣ Should I triple captain Palmer?

Stop overcomplicating that chip.

I’m fascinated by how much time people spend overanalysing when to use the Triple Captain and its outcomes, while neglecting other, MUCH more important stuff. Mass hysteria where it’s unnecessary.

You’ll triple-captain someone with 7 to 8.5 EV in the first half of the season in a single gameweek. So pick someone based on other factors, such as when you play other chips, your risk tolerance, and others.

If you want to be different and you’re not interested in triple-captaining Haaland (or you don’t want to own him in certain stretches of the season), you will probably use it on Bruno Fernandes, Bukayo Saka, or Cole Palmer. This is a chance to play it on someone with a nice balance of still relatively low effective ownership and high EV.

Simple as that.

5️⃣ Is Morgan Rogers a good pick?

I spent an unhealthy amount of time discussing Morgan Rogers during the pre-season, so just briefly.

For a complete Rogers analysis, I recommend you read the article above (free)

He won’t score bangers all the time, but he reminded us not long ago that he will, from time to time.

As with everything in football data analytics, you need context. And context is that he has 6 seasons of solid finishing under his belt, despite not playing in his best position most of the time, which limited his ability to take his best shots.

He’s now firmly installed in his most natural role.

He’s got better teammates.

And I’m still bullish on Xabi Alonso.

You can expect his chance-creation threat won’t go anywhere. Goals will follow, in some form.

For £7.6 million, he’s perfectly fine if he fits your plans. I don’t know, as I don’t see your team. But in total isolation, there’s nothing wrong with him.

That’s all for today.

See you very soon with Wildcard 4 draft, Free Hit 4 draft, and analysis of various players and teams!

What to read next?

Social media has created the impression that we’re in peak chip season (and I certainly contributed by playing my Triple Captain last week).

It was true among the most engaged managers, your toughest competition in the game. However, a broader look at the whole player pool still shows it’s not as widespread a trend as you might expect.

Wildcards, Free Hits, and Triple Captains were flying in Gameweek 3, but 70.4% of managers didn’t play a chip that week, according to LiveFPL.net:

And 90% of players still didn’t use their wildcards. ❗

Yet so many people on social media discuss WC in isolation, trying to convince others that “this is a great gameweek to wildcard”. It doesn’t work like that. Rather than inducing chip anxiety, a better approach is to teach your audience how to spot the right moment for their specific team.

That’s the theme of today’s article.

Gameweek 3 Review: Haaland and all the others under scrutiny

My Gameweek 3 ended with a small red arrow. It could have been much worse if it wasn’t for the active triple captain chip on Erling Haaland (£15.5m), who scored 27 points with one goal and a full bonus.

It was in line with an EV of 8.5 points – it seems FPL is fair to me so far this season.

All those discussions on FPL Twitter about whether it was a fail or not drove me crazy. No, it was not a fail. An average outcome, yes, but far from a fail. People need to realise how much variance that chip carries and how prone single-gameweek results are to (bad) luck.

Jonny Currie from Solio Analytics created this amazing visualisation to demonstrate that. It shows a distribution of outcomes based on 100,000 simulations:

Here’s the rest of the team:

My players delivered 3 returns, and my bench produced 3. If you can’t see the third in the screenshot, it’s the hidden Maguire’s DEFCON.

Playing Verbruggen and Pedro instead of Kinský and DCL cost me 3 points. A warning not to be a p**** and to stay loyal to my usual style of not hedging my bets and always going for the maximum ceiling? Perhaps.

As always in low-scoring weeks like this, let’s discuss whether there’s a problem with my picks. It’s a good chance to review the data and context, which is more important than ever given the low sample size of Gameweeks.

Bart Verbruggen, Pascal Gross, Diego Gómez: Brighton conceding 2.82 xG against Leeds, right after conceding 2.92 against Chelsea, might not be ideal for a future clean sheet prospect, but with Coventry next, Sunderland in Gameweek 6, and Kinský ready to deputise, it’s just something to monitor at this point.

Juggling all those injuries must be frustrating for Fabian Hürzeler, but it won’t last forever.

Pascal Gross took 4 set-pieces, had a pretty advanced average position for touches with the ball, and missed one massive chance, so he continues to tick along. The Seagulls also should likely have been awarded a penalty.

Diego Goméz is someone to be cautious about – he takes a lot of shots, but with just 0.05 xG per shot, they are not very dangerous. Femi Azeez might eat into his minutes quite soon, most likely after the IB. Let’s see if there’s any useful info at the press conference.

Antonín Kinský: So far, what I predicted in the pre-season is coming true. The attack still needs a lot of work, and RDZ makes some questionable line-up decisions at the #9, #10, and #8 positions.

But this was the second straight good defensive performance, which is something to watch.

Tarik Muharemovič and DCL: Muharemovič has the second-highest defensive contribution volume and has met the threshold in 66% of cases so far, while DCL missed two very good chances. The important thing is that he can still get those shots.

Riccardo Calafiori: The game against Chelsea was a huge statement from Arsenal, as they allowed just 0.35 xG – in other words, just 5 shots inside the box, 4 of them from very wide angles, and only one that was dangerous, but more because of the placement than the quality itself.

Frankly, Arsenal’s 0.04 xG per shot conceded so far this season is simply absurd. They just don’t allow good attempts. I feel I’m highly under-exposed to their defence.

João Pedro: No news here. Hull at home next.

Dominik Szoboszlai: Once again, he took all of Liverpool’s set-pieces. While all 3 of his shots came from outside the box, 2 had massive xGOT (xG on target) and were saved by Kjell Scherpen’s nice saves after he made that mistake for Isak’s opening goal.

Also, Cody Gakpo stole one good shot from him. Again, no new information – we know that open-play xG isn’t Szoboszlai’s appeal.

Issa Diop: Another DEFCON two-pointer collected – that’s why he’s on the team. I suspect Ipswich might survive if Exequiel Palacios can stay healthy.

Fixtures over the next 6 gameweeks, ranked by goal difference using Solio Analytics’ model

Chris Richards: The most underwhelming asset so far, and hitting 9 defensive contributions was simply annoying. With so many good options in that £5.0m price bracket, I probably tried to be too clever by picking someone from the Palace team.

The combination of fixtures and how well he rotates within the team pushed me towards him, but I probably underestimated that Palace are not in great harmony. It cost me some DEF points. The run of Ipswich, Leeds and Forest probably looks better than it truly is.

Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo and Harry Maguire: This trio is key to everything. Although United aren’t as good as we might have expected before the season, both Bruno and Mbeumo can produce in any given game. Harry Maguire is likely to depart soon – I expected higher DEFCON and set-piece involvement, and the clean-sheet odds are objectively questionable.

⚠️ Chris Richards, Harry Maguire, Diego Gómez
❓ Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes
✅ The rest

My Gameweek 4 team: 3 different routes using free transfers

Although we’re only four weeks in, this gameweek seems pivotal for the first half of the season.

I have 3 free transfers, a Wildcard, a Free Hit and £0.0 in the bank:

At first glance, the team looks healthy, and using free transfers while saving both the Wildcard and the Free Hit seems doable.

But is it truly better than using a chip?

To answer that, we need to look deeper.

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Alright, guys.

Welcome to another Q&A!

You know the drill – please leave your questions in the comments, and I’ll do my best to answer as many as possible before Saturday’s deadline (Sat 12 Sep, 14:30). The only Saturday deadline before the September international break.

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Alright, guys.

Here’s my Gameweek 3 team:

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Even though I’m strongly against having a second batch of chips in FPL, as it introduces even more unnecessary variance into a game that’s already heavy on it, there’s one thing you can’t deny:

That’s why I won’t list all the pros and cons of using the chip in Gameweek 3 this season.

It’s… team dependent.

❗ Play one of those chips if:

• you have planned for it and optimised your team for GWs 1 and 2 accordingly

• you can’t sensibly buy Erling Haaland

• … or if you’re facing an unbearable amount of problems and it makes sense

If you’re FOMOing because everyone seems to be doing it, circle back to what I’ve just said: there’s no right or wrong time to play it, and because someone else is doing it doesn’t mean it’s the best solution for your team.

Wildcard 3: Better safe than sorry

Alright.

Firstly, let’s set the general theme for Wildcard 3:

Because we still have only 2 weeks of information, which is essentially nothing in football and data analytics (essentially a prolonged pre-season), I would build an extremely safe version of the draft.

1️⃣ The structure should be flexible enough to withstand injuries and suspensions and to allow you to adapt to future trends. Because you’re losing the strongest chip, you need to be able to solve problems with free transfers easily

2️⃣ To add to that, most of the players should have secure xMins

3️⃣ It should cover all the high-EO captaincy options

4️⃣ Even though standout fixture swings are difficult to identify this season, you should take them into account, as there are still fixtures to target

5️⃣ You probably have 2 FTs, so it’s okay(ish) to book one if you meet all the previous conditions

That’s basically it.

Now, the more granular view.

To address that uncertainty, look for well-known facts that help you make an educated guess about whether a trend will continue.

The best example of this is Arsenal’s defence.

It’s something you don’t need to ponder too much – we have a several-season sample showing they are likely the best defence in the world, the team has remained largely the same (with some smart additions), and even if you factor some kind of penalty for Williams Saliba’s injury, it should be safe to play their defensive double up or triple up.

Solio Analytics fixture ticker showing predicted goal difference

Another example would be:

• Manchester City’s attack: Individual quality is simply too high not to produce regularly

• Brentford: 8th for non-penalty xPoints last season (minimal gap from 6th), the core of their team stayed together, smartly improving/adding depth in key positions

• Chelsea: A lot of changes, BUT the front three consist of high-performing, Premier League-proven players, and Xabi Alonso has a good track record. Fade defence

• Manchester United: As for the offence, something similar to Chelsea, just with questionable coaching 😉

• Liverpool: Uhm, something similar to above, but with… better coaching

You get the idea.

If the core of your Wildcard 3 team is strong, you can then add a few more maverick picks, but still sensible ones. Although Newcastle is going through a rebuild and you really don’t know how it will pan out at this point, you can go for proven picks to target favourable fixtures. 

FPL 101.

This may seem super simple to some of you, but you can still make a lot of mistakes there if you’re not careful.

Building the Wildcard draft

And the final level of granularity: players themselves.

The most important decisions first. Things like:

• Which premiums and structure to choose?

• How to tackle Arsenal: Raya, yes or no? Konsa, yes or no? Double up or triple up? Just defence, or add Bukayo Saka?

• Manchester City players to balance targeting Coventry without losing future EV from their shady xMins

Etc.

Ideally, I’d like to own both a £4.0 keeper and a £4.0 defender to put as much money as possible into the starting eleven, but there’s a factor named Ezri Konsa…

Arsenal defender with a £4.4 million price tag, offset by the fact that we don’t know when or if he slots into the starting 11. We can just make assumptions. Something happens, and then you have 3 other defenders and 1 budget solution. And if one of your starting defenders gets injured, you can get into trouble real quick.

However, if you follow the “utmost safety” script and you’re sensible with your free transfers, I believe picking Konsa is fine.

There’s also this news:

All the main City assets should be fine to start against Coventry, but there’s absolutely no guarantee about their xMins, either in that game or going forward.

That’s the fact. Even Enzo Maresca probably isn’t sure at the moment, so you can’t be either. Because of that, I’m fine with treating one City spot as a one-week punt and booking a transfer, provided you’ve been disciplined and have 2 already saved.

Haaland is essentially a 90-minute man at this stage of the season.

I’d also play Rayan Cherki (£7.7m) because I think he offers good upside, even though his xMins are likely to be around 75. That’s fine against Coventry. On Free Hit, it’s obviously a City triple-up, but I don’t like it when wildcarding because it’s a ticking time bomb.

Alternatively, you can go with Nico O’Reilly, but in a Konsa draft, it doesn’t feel too safe.

Bukayo Saka: Yes or no?

The big question for me is whether to include Bukayo Saka (£9.5m) in the draft. Let’s discuss that, then compare Saka and no-Saka drafts. Then we’ll do a Free Hit team.

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Now that the summer transfer window has closed, let’s shift our focus to its impact on Premier League teams.

It was certainly a fruitful and highly entertaining one, and the deadline day was no exception – all the biggest moves would merit a proper deep dive, but as we need to discuss Wildcard and Free Hit 3 in the next article, let’s keep this lean for now.

Anyway, looking at what happened over the past few weeks, you don’t want to wildcard in Gameweek 3 unless you planned for it (and tailored your GW1 and GW2 selection to fit that).

I don’t want to tell you what to do, but… I will. Play it only if you must.

They did it more times than Britney did

When you think about it, it’s not as if Brighton invented the wheel.

But they’re strictly methodical, have set out a clear club philosophy, and understand that each transfer must fulfil a specific purpose, solve a problem, and, when possible, be paired with good resale value.

What makes them (and some others) stand out in the market is that the decision-making at some other clubs is… questionable?

So, who did they get yesterday?

Chema Andrés

The 21-year-old Spanish number six comes from Stuttgart, after what was his debut season in the top 5 league. Let’s not count those two games for Real Madrid.

He’s often compared to Rodri, but those shortcuts are mostly stupid – remember when Sandro Tonali was compared to Andrea Pirlo because he’s Italian and has long hair?

Yeah…

I didn’t track his career at Real, but from a limited sample of about 1,500 minutes at Stuttgart, he’s far from matching Rodri’s on-ball value.

He’s not bad technically and has a good eye for a line-breaking pass to a runner behind when he’s advanced in the half-space, but he doesn’t do it often. And you can’t expect him to play many creative passes from deep. He’s rather someone who sets the tempo and does his thing.

And by his thing, I mean defending.

The guy is smart and can anticipate where the ball will go. In the Bundesliga, he averaged an absurd volume of intercepted and blocked passes (95th+ percentile) and had a massive tackling success rate (again, 95th+ percentile), which helped him win:

• a lot of balls

• a lot of balls in important areas

He stops dangerous actions or, even better, prevents them. On top of that, he’s amazing in the air, both in terms of volume and a high success rate.

Andrés is not very strong in duels, so he’ll need some time to adapt to the Premier League’s intensity and physical demands. Once he does, he’ll slot into that MID DEFCON baddies player pool (13.70 defensive contributions p90 last season).

Femi Azeez

Alright.

Brighton signed a member of the Championship Team of the Season for a reported £15 million. That’s essentially zero risk with nice upside.

We’re talking about a winger who dominated in the Championship, providing a dual threat in the final third of the pitch, scoring 11 goals and adding 7 assists for Millwall.

The surface numbers looked great – 2.60 non-penalty shots, 0.27 non-penalty expected goals, and 0.29 expected assists per 90 minutes.

Looking deeper, he’s not a super standout ball carrier, but he crushed goal probability added passing models in the Championship. Although a good chunk of his creativity stemmed from sharing set-piece duties with Alfie Doughty, Aidomo Emakhu and Barry Bannan, he does a lot from open play too – 12 of his key passes came from set-pieces, whereas 53 came from open play.

He’s a fantastic crosser from wide areas, which is his greatest creative asset.

His deep crossing is also good, though not as standout as from the byline. He played most of the season on the right, but he can shoot with both feet and scored roughly the same number of goals with each, so I think he can play on the left.

Maxim De Cuyper (£4.7m) and Diego Gómez (£5.0m) are likely still fine in the short term, but Azeez’s involvement is something to monitor now. Chema Andrés will probably need more time to adapt than him, but with Brighton’s lack of options in midfield, anything can happen.

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Newcastle saving the best for last?

This Newcastle rebuild is great fun.

Before deadline day, they signed Nico González, Amar Dedič, Lukáš Horníček, Aladji Bamba, Sean Steur, and Bazoumana Toure, a nice way to tackle their current problems with high-ceiling young signings, all under the oversight of 38-year-old Matthias Jaissle.

They finished the window by introducing another highly-rated youngster: 21-year-old Matias Fernandez-Pardo, who came from Lille in a €60 million deal and will find his way into the starting eleven fairly quickly.

Last season, he played about 2,600 minutes, scoring 8 goals and assisting on 5. He can play as a number nine, on both wings, and potentially also as a second striker or a number 10. That likely makes Yoane Wissa’s (£6.1m) minutes secure now that Nick Woltemade has been loaned out to Juventus and William Osula is injured indefinitely.

Pardo averaged 2.60 shots, 0.27 non-penalty xG, and 0.18 xA last season, which is a nice final product. He’s right-footed, not very threatening in the air, and often arrives in the box to distribute final passes.

A good chunk of his creativity also comes in the form of cutbacks – oh, he loves a good cutback, which is certainly good news.

Remember the Wissa and Mbeumo partnership?

Newcastle fans will now hope Wissa and Pardo can build up a nice on-pitch chemistry between them.

Let’s see.

A huge one for Liverpool

Reading through comments on FPL Twitter, most see Bradley Barcola (£8.0m) as either overpriced or fairly priced.

Well, I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

I’m okay with accepting that he’s priced well right now, but I’m not buying that he’s overpriced. He’s a top-tier signing in terms of his ceiling in Andoni Iraola’s gung ho team.

Also, he’s firmly in an elite category in terms of his ability and final product. The Palmer, Saka, Bruno category, even, whisper it quietly. Which makes me think that, at a certain stage of the season, he might very well become a bandwagon.

You can have as many comments about “farmers league” and “it was PSG, bro” as you want, but averaging 3.20 non-penalty shots, 0.50 non-penalty xG, and 0.23 xA per 90 isn’t normal for a winger over 2,000 minutes, even in an elite team.

Same as 2.80 shots, 0.50 xG, and 0.34 xA a season before.

Sure, Ligue 1 tax will apply, but he’s a 24-year-old peak-performance player ready to contribute right away – he wasn’t playing only in the domestic league, but also had 2,500 minutes in the Champions League, where he was regularly getting into those quality goal-scoring opportunities.

His runs behind the defence, fed by the creative passing of Florian Wirtz (£7.5m) and Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.0m)… old FPL might be back.

I’m not saying buy Bradley Barcola right away in FPL, but constantly monitoring and having some plans/wiggle room certainly helps.

Liverpool’s fixtures don’t look particularly appealing, with no standout fixture swing after Ipswich and Fulham.

However, coping with such an intense team that is dangerous both in transitions and in unlocking low blocks with Barcola, Isak, Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Munoz or Ngumoha will be difficult for anyone.

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Other transfers and brief notes

What else is there?

Manchester City: Enzo Fernández, Iliman Ndiaye, and Allan on deadline day. Elliot Anderson and Ayyoub Bouaddi earlier.

My commentary: What a window. You already know what I think about Elliot Anderson and Ayyoub Bouaddi, and the deadline day business has improved the team even further.

From an FPL perspective, it’s a minefield, though – Iliman Ndiaye ceased to exist as a pick overnight, and xMins are shady mid/long-term across the midfield.

One thing I’d monitor closely is whether Enzo will play in a number 10/box-crashing role, as that could be interesting for £6.9 million. But it’s chaotic right now.

Spurs: Mykhailo Mudryk and Tosin Adarabioyo

My commentary: A backup centre-back. Plus someone who played his last competitive match in November 2024. At the same time, Mudryk worked with De Zerbi in the past and has an undeniable creative x-factor. He’s likely someone who improves the team but isn’t a good fantasy pick.

Everton: Jack Grealish, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, no Folarin Balogun

My commentary: Thierno Barry and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall stonks up. My bullish-o-meter is rising. Goal threat imminent. xMins good. Creativity boost. Promoted teams soon. I’ll discuss more in Premium.

Leeds: Jean-Mattéo Bahoya and Melvin Bard

My commentary: Imagine Jérémy Doku and Iliman Ndiaye had a child. That’s Jean-Mattéo Bahoya. Melvin Bard is one of the coolest names in the Premier League. Apart from that, he has almost 14,000 minutes of experience in Ligue 1 and is a great defensive-minded full-back. Leeds’ transfer window makes so much sense.

Aston Villa: Ibrahim Mbaye and Taylor Harwood-Bellis, with several others, including Nicolas Jackson, Johan Manzambi, João Gomes, and Zion Suzuki before that.

My commentary: Once things settle, there will be options. Simple as that.

Crystal Palace: Darío Osorio, Quinten Timber, Ben Chilwell, Honest Ahanor

My commentary: I’m puzzled about this. Honest-ly

Fulham: David Affengruber, Hugo Larsson, Manuel Ángel

My commentary: Still a defensive unit to target with your attacking picks. Re-evaluate later if Shea Charles and David Affengruber prove influential. Still, it’s a long shot. LONG shot.

Hull City: Ilyas Ansah, Sorba Thomas, Tim Iroegbunam, Christos Mouzakitis, Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Robinio Vaz

My commentary: My tendons hurt from writing all those names. There is fierce competition in the middle of the pitch, and for Oli McBurnie.

Sunderland: Malick Fofana and Kevin Danso
Ipswich: Zian Flemming
Liverpool: Lucca Brughmans

Turning data into decisions that clubs use on the transfer market was something I did for a living for 8 years, so I’ll definitely discuss many of the players above in more detail over the coming weeks, just like several other transfers that happened earlier (looking at you, Exequiel Palacios).

There’s so much to unpack.

What to read next?

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Alright, guys.

We’re replacing my traditional free-flowing analytical Tuesday article with another edition of the Thought Process series.

The reason is simple – I want to build the Wildcard 3 draft for the upcoming Thursday deep dive (and also discuss the Free Hit 3 team), and I need as much information as possible to do so. With the summer transfer window closing on Tuesday at 23:59 CET, I’d be missing a crucial piece of information needed to publish it.

Of course, there’s no escaping chip strategies, even today.

However, there’s also that one little thing called a free transfer, so let’s see whether there’s a good use for it.

It’s a week when Manchester City face Coventry at home, after all.

United vs Everton: Is there any value?

Before we do that, let’s do a super-quick recap of Gameweek 2 before discussing 🤖.

While I was content with the team, I certainly didn’t expect to enter the 100-point club that early in the season, especially in a Gameweek when I’m not using a chip.

And yet, here we are.

It’s a 27-point green arrow:

There were an unprecedented 18 returns among my players, and aside from Bruno Fernandes’ mega haul, I’d say Pascal Groß’s (£5.5m) 13-pointer at 3.4% effective ownership was the highlight of the week.

Bryan Mbeumo (£8.0m) already had some good moments in the opening game against Hull, but on Sunday he contributed to United’s humongous 4.77 xG – as per Statsbomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout – with 5 non-penalty shots and 1.76 xG (plus 0.21 xA), resulting in an 11-point haul.

Despite missing this chance:

By the way, Everton conceded 2.16 xG against Bournemouth and 1.96 against Palace. Even though it’s a small sample, given their 6th-worst xG conceded last season and Garner/Hackney still lacking ideal match fitness, I’m rather optimistic about that attacking double-up.

There’s also the Bruno Fernandes and Harry Maguire link-up in my team, as defending set pieces wasn’t Everton's strongest suit last season. The most important metric for evaluating how a team defends corners is xG conceded per corner, which reflects opponents’ effectiveness – the Toffees ranked worst in that metric last year.

In those two opening games, they already conceded some dangerous set-piece shots.

Given the current FPL meta, it’s good that both Tarik Muharemovič and Issa Diop have hit the DEFCON threshold. Those small gains compound over time.

Interestingly, looking at my team, there are quite a few decisions to make this week:

Is it time to triple captain Erling Haaland?

Alright, Erling Haaland (£15.5m).

His average expected value (EV), based on the Solio, FPL Copilot, and FPL Review models, is around 8.20. He’s the clear captaincy option and even a suitable candidate for the Triple Captain chip.

You’ll be the judge of how you want to approach him.

In my case, including him in my Gameweek 1 draft makes things straightforward – I either captain him or triple-captain him.

Triple-captaining Haaland this week has several perks.

1️⃣ Apart from the more general ones we’ll discuss later, there’s one that suits my situation well.

Given how my team is structured, it’s difficult for me to bring in another Manchester City player. That’s why I’ve already discussed Manchester United’s stack potential against Everton.

In theory, I could sacrifice Bryan Mbeumo by using 1 FT to swap him for Rayan Cherki (£7.6m) or Phil Foden (£7.0m). I don’t completely rule it out at this stage, but it feels like a luxury transfer, and I might miss that FT in future.

💡 At the same time, it’s not a bad move, especially when it comes to Cherki.

There’s a simple thought process I like to use in those situations:

If you’re bullish on Erling Haaland enough to consider captaining him, you believe he’ll score goals → there’s a good chance someone will assist those goals → Rayan Cherki is great at assisting goals. Wow.

Last season, he recorded 0.42 xG assisted per 90 minutes (more than Bruno) across 2,000 minutes played, which simply means he has an exceptional ability to play a final pass.

It stems from the fact that he can play about a gazillion types of creative passes and can do so with both feet. The way he thinks about those short passes from zone 14 and half-spaces aimed into central areas in the box is a thing of beauty. Sure, he can play through-balls from deeper areas, but the way he can break the low block when near the box… well, I probably need to write a deep dive on him.

If he gets proper minutes, he is a natural fit for ALL Haaland teams, more so if he can also arrive in good goal-scoring positions himself.

Predicting xMins is a tricky part: you can reasonably expect about 75 for the near future, with a lot of uncertainty as you progress through the season.

Having Manchester City double- or triple-up is still a nice play if you can sensibly load up on them. There’s a good chunk of managers who will get there comfortably by using a Free Hit or Wildcard, so I like that playing triple captain on Haaland means you’re effectively getting one more City player – and the best one – without using a transfer, and you can close the gap.

There’s a higher chance I’ll be more exposed to City players later in the season, whereas now I’m underexposed for that fixture and can balance it out.

If that makes sense.

2️⃣ If I do it now, I won’t lose a ton of EV.

Quick look at the Solio Analytics numbers:

• Haaland (COV, GW3): 8.40 EV

• Palmer (HUL, GW4): 7.10

• Haaland (IPS, GW7): 8.10

• Bruno Fernandes (COV, GW14): 7.50

• Haaland (HUL, GW16): 8.95

Sure, Hull in Gameweek 16 is the best option on current EV, but is it really?

It’s just an educated guess for now. Comparing those three newly promoted teams is tricky because all have undergone a classic Premier League rebuild, and it remains to be seen how they will gel and settle.

Based on their last season’s numbers, the Championship tax, their transfer market activity so far, and their performances in those two opening fixtures (even though that’s just a tiny hint), there’s no reason not to rank Coventry as serious relegation candidates.

I’m a simple man – I don’t mind triple-captaining Erling Haaland, who faces a newly promoted team at home after he spent 90 minutes on the pitch and scored 2 goals against a much better defensive unit.

3️⃣ Circumstantial stuff

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