I don’t know about you, but I absolutely love this time of year.

Where I live, the weather is finally starting to turn really nice. The Champions League is in a phase that’s simply a celebration of football. And FPL heads into its final stretch, lined with chip strategies.

Still, it can be a period of mild anxiety in FPL.

I will say it again:

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Alright, guys.

Here’s my potentially (more on that later) final Gameweek 32 wildcard team:

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Look, it’s always nice when Sydney Sweeney posts a new Instagram story, but for us, the most important picture this week is the one below.

And it’s not even close:

❗ It’s a list of 6 teams that will double in Gameweek 33 and, at the same time, will blank in Gameweek 34.

The results of last weekend’s FA Cup quarter-finals, which caused these postponements, were the signal to put our chip strategies into action. One of the most popular is the WC32, BB33, FH34 (TC36), which means you’re reading one of my favourite pieces of content – building the wildcard draft from scratch.

I’ll discuss the process of choosing the right path for your team later this week in the upcoming edition of the Thought Process series.

Generally, it involves assessing your team’s status in GW32 and BGW34, weighing the pros and cons of BB33 versus FH33, and considering your free transfers with the full 7-GW outlook in mind. Most of the time, it’s either GW32 or GW35 wildcard (WC33 can also work).

But yeah, that’s for another day. This time, it will be a purely analytical look at players, teams, match-ups, and fantasy concepts you should utilise if you decide that Wildcard 32 is the right approach for you.

Let’s do this.

💡 Advice: If you’re feeling confused about chip strategies, avoid the mistake of trying to read as much content as possible.

Instead, especially if your time is limited this week, open your favourite planning tool and experiment with different routes tailored to your team.

Understanding your team is far more valuable than doomscrolling on FPL X.

Also, this season is unique because those routes are quite close in EV. Yes, they may have vastly different results over just 7 GWs, but that’s beyond your control.

Manchester City: They simply need to be there

Quick note: Even if you’ve decided on the GW32 wildcard, it might be slightly different for you if you have a large bank of saved free transfers, or if you diverge from a template chip strategy mentioned above. This WC draft assumes entering GW32 with 1 FT and a plan to BB33 and FH34.

It’s not a groundbreaking thought, but it must be said before moving on to more interesting stuff – Manchester City’s triple-up is essential.

• They will have a DGW33 with Arsenal (H), Burnley (A)

• They are predicted to double in GW36, facing BRE and CRY/bou.

• For now, they still have a lot to play for

• The quality of their players

Unfortunately, there’s very little space to get creative, as their trio pick itself.

You might feel the urge to be different, but as the great Marsellus Wallace says, “That’s pride fucking with you. Fuck pride. Pride only hurts, it never helps.”

The arguments for each of them are simply too strong.

And yes, you won’t jump ranks that much if they go big, but at the same time, you won’t lose ground unnecessarily. You need to have shields just as much as swords. And there will be swords later in this article.

Also, depending on your rank, about 32 - 40% of people have already played their wildcard, and 28 - 38% don’t have their Free Hit anymore.

There’s still room to improve your rank by playing smart FPL.

Firstly, this man:

Erling Haaland (£14.4m) has been averaging only 4.59 FPL points per game since January, which is a combination of not only a fair share of bad luck, but also visibly worse performances across almost all key metrics. 

At the same time, his performances still remain well above average. We simply view him through different lenses, and if he had scored a few more goals during that period, the perception would be much more positive.

After his hat-trick against Liverpool, all doubts were put to rest. Also, with a lack of other high-performing premiums, combined with those upcoming doubles, there’s no reason to snub him from the WC team.

No data needed here.

Since Antoine Semenyo (£8.2m) made his first appearance for Manchester City in Gameweek 22, he has become the second most utilised player in their squad, only behind Rodri, who played ten more minutes. You rarely get such a luxury with players managed by Pep. 

Plus, you don’t often see a winger with such high goal-scoring potential – these are rare gems in this year’s Premier League.

In City, he posts:

• 2.20 shots per 90

• 0.33 non-penalty xG per 90

• 0.59 post-shot xG per 90 (as per StatsBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout)

• 0.15 xG per shot

• 11% of his shots are blocked (elite separation and execution, the best in the league)

• strong numbers in metrics that measure how dangerous the positions he receives the ball in are

He’s clearly instructed to take fewer shots from outside the box, with only 4 of his 18 open play attempts being from long range. Most of his attempts are central, demonstrating not only good movement in the box but also good finishing (his long-term trait) and confidence.

He’s always had this in him – now you can see how effective he is when playing closer to the goal.

Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m) sees a decent amount of minutes on the pitch, while recording 2.20 shots and 0.27 non-penalty xG with 0.36 post-shot xG per 90 minutes this calendar year. 

He can haul at any moment, and if you’re on a wildcard, I don’t see a reason not to include him. 

At the time of writing, he’s owned by 9.4% of FPL managers, so let’s see how much he will be owned by in a few days.

Also, it’s nice to have at least one non-DEFCON defender to feel something again.

If you’re going very, very hard for secure minutes, you might consider Marc Guéhi (£5.1m), who’s City’s most frequent recipient of corners, but his DEFCON completion rate is just 25%.

Rayan Aït-Nouri (£5.7m) looks quite creative and would be a good pick last season, but he lacks DEFCONs and goal threat – so he isn’t this season.

One caveat is that if City lose against Arsenal next week, the rotation could kick in, and you might want to offload some of their players later on. But it is what it is.

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City’s fixture includes a GW33 game against Chelsea, which isn’t too bad in isolation, as they aren’t the most solid defence in the league.

However, it’s a bit frustrating, as you’ll probably also need to involve some Blues players in your draft…

Chelsea: Is the double-up worth it?

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Aaaand we’re back, my friends.

From now on, it’s a lengthy, uninterrupted run of Premier League football, with our chip strategies in action.

It also means it’s time for our next Q&A – this time, it’s …

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Nerd stuff alert.

This season of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) feels somewhat different.

A direct result of the entire league feeling different.

Over the past few months, I have published several articles on this new Premier League landscape that present compelling data supporting the idea that we are witnessing less exciting football than in previous seasons.

1️⃣ There are fewer goals, and their distribution has changed dramatically: set-piece goals are on a massive rise.

2️⃣ The number of headed duels has skyrocketed.

3️⃣ Long throws became extremely popular: the number of both expected and actual goals from long throws has doubled (you’re seeing them every gameweek now).

4️⃣ There are significantly fewer shots from counter-attacks and counter-pressing, as teams often opt to play long passes to bypass the press and become more risk-averse.

5️⃣ The ball is in play for about 1 minute and 34 seconds less. Although that doesn’t seem like much, there’s a lot you can get done in that time — go ask my girlfriend.

If you’re interested, you can read about this in one of my previous deep dives:

These are the facts. Numbers don’t lie.

But people often do.

The current landscape is filled with strange narratives, which you should always take with a pinch of salt. In our FPL bubble, the focus is often on shots.

When Harry Wilson and Morgan Rogers (back when he was still a people’s darling, so… quite a while ago) are on a heater, shots from outside the box are suddenly seen as a clever tactic that works perfectly, and Premier League teams are beginning to use these to exploit a skill that this surface-level xG can never truly capture…

You’ve probably heard these opinions many times this season.

They are loud and super convinced.

I have quite a bit to say about that, but first, let’s take a quick landscape check.

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Set pieces, no goals, bla bla bla

Some say that this is the worst Premier League season ever.

And as is often the case, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Partly, it’s this fading-effect bias, which is a tendency to remember past events more positively than we actually experienced them. At the same time, there is evidence.

We’re on track to see the fewest non-penalty goals in the past four seasons: just 1,036, compared to an average of 1,148 over the previous three campaigns. *Doing proper maths* That amounts to 112 goals fewer.

For example, during the 23/24 season, there were 1,246 goal celebrations. Yes, including those your FPL captain was involved in just as a spectator.

❗ If we compare it to the current pace, we’d see almost 6 goals fewer per Gameweek than two seasons ago.

It’s impossible to specify an exact number of FPL points that goals would earn, but it would be hundreds and hundreds.

The striking difference is the meteoric rise in set-piece goals year on year.

Last season, 20.6% of all goals came from these. This season, that figure has increased to 27.2%, making set-piece goals 32% more common compared to last year.

In absolute terms, we are on track to see 52 more goals from dead-ball situations and 143 fewer open-play goals.

Okay, now the juicy one:

Many say that this season, teams are sitting in deeper blocks than before, forcing opponents to take more long-range attempts, as it’s often too crowded inside the box.

But in reality, there is no data-backed evidence of this happening.

The average height of the defensive line is essentially the same as last season, with only a few centimetres difference. It’s even higher than in the season that holds the record for the most goals scored.

What has changed is that defensive units are more compact, rest defences work better, and teams are harder to break down when they drop deep. But there is still only indirect evidence of this, such as more long balls than ever, and, as already mentioned, fewer goals.

And it certainly doesn’t imply that there’s a trend of teams responding to this by shooting outside the box more often.

You can’t possibly say this without any solid proof.

The real numbers behind long-range shots

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It’s only day 3 of the international break.

All international action has yet to begin, so the biggest news these days is that Mohamed Salah will leave Liverpool at the end of this season.

When one era ends, another begins: a new Liverpool right winger will be coming.

Will they opt for Yankuba Minteh?

Maghnes Akliouche? Désiré Doué? Bradley Barcola? Michael Olise? Yan Diomande?

Well, it’s one for the future. Let’s focus on recent events and how to use them effectively in FPL.

Bournemouth 2:2 Manchester United (xG: 1.80 - 1.77)

Look, as someone without Chelsea coverage in my FPL team, I find it annoying when people tug at João Pedro’s shirt inside the penalty box.

But when it happens to a United player, I get excited because that means Bruno Fernandes (£10.3m) is taking the spot kick, which is exactly what happened on Friday night.

You be the judge whether there should be a second one…

Somewhat unusually, Bruno took 6 shots in total and only 3 key passes.

While this is lower than his recent standards, it was still the most on the pitch, tied with Diogo Dalot.

He also contributed to the second United goal and sparked yet another “controversy”, this time exclusively on FPL X, where everyone had an opinion on whether a fantasy assist should be awarded or not.

To understand the rules of the game, you need to know OPTA’s metrics definitions, since the game is fundamentally built around them. Game makers should take notes and improve transparency to prevent similar issues next season. 

It’s the least they can do, as caricature metrics like “big chances” (overly subjective) and pass accuracy (useless, and say little about a player’s ability) are a core part of the bonus point system.

And don’t even get me started on DEFCONs…

Nah, I haven’t got the energy for that.

Instead, let’s look at how this game became the last straw for Marcus Tavernier (£5.4m) owners.

If you examine his data from the last five games — which is still only 400 minutes but still — you’d think you’re looking at a midfielder with elite production in the final third.

About 3 shots, 0.33 xG, and 0.33 xA per 90 minutes, along with many touches in the box and passes received in valuable areas close to the opponent’s goal, is something you don’t see much these days.

Unfortunately, out of those 13 shots, with 9 inside the box, he scored precisely zero goals, and that one assist certainly didn’t make up for that. Especially at this stage of the season. Also, Junior Kroupi took a penalty while Tavernier was on the pitch.

So, while Bruno will remain in most teams going forward, the same cannot be said for the Bournemouth player. Those upcoming fixtures don’t help either:

After a promising start, Rayan’s (£5.6m) performances declined sharply, which shouldn’t surprise you if you read my analysis of him that I published earlier this season. Arriving from a league of much lower quality and at just 19 years old, it was clear that he would need some time to adapt.

A player always needs time. Sometimes four months, sometimes six, sometimes an entire season, and that’s perfectly normal.

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Brighton 2:1 Liverpool (xG: 2.17 - 1.03)

The better team won, plain and simple.

The shot map clearly tells the story: aside from Milos Kerkez’s goal, which came from Lewis Dunk's defensive error, they limited Liverpool to low-quality shots, many of which were blocked.

And although there were some well-placed shots, Bart Verbruggen handled them easily.

I’ve been highlighting Brighton’s defence for quite some time here on Data Dribble, wondering why I haven't seen it discussed much elsewhere.

Despite a rather mixed bag of fixtures, they have managed this since January (12 GWs now):

• 1.09 xG conceded p90 (3rd best)

• 7 non-penalty goals conceded (the least)

• 0.080 xG per shot allowed (the best)

• 2nd for xG conceded from fast transitions

• 4th for xG conceded from set-pieces

• Amazing Bart Verbruggen (best shot-stopping since GW20)

Those numbers tell a compelling story.

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Alright, my friends.

It’s time for the final Q&A before the long and gruelling international break that kills all the FPL momentum. What’s not to love?

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Stranger-than-ever international break is almost here, reader.

Not only will it last three exhausting weeks, but it will also include the FA Cup quarter-final weekend on 4-5 April, which will finally decide our entire chip strategy and set the tone for the rest of the season.

Before we complete the last piece of the planning puzzle, it’s time to handle the Blank Gameweek 31, the first blank of the season.

Change of plans: I’m using them all…

Alright.

Here’s my bus team:

3 free transfers and £0.1 million in the bank to spend.

Initially, I was planning to deal only with those 4 blanking players, along with Marc Guiu, and possibly save one of the transfers for GW32+ developments, but that definitely won’t happen now.

On Tuesday night, Trevoh Chalobah (£5.5m) was stretchered off the pitch — call me a pessimist, but I don’t think his ankle will magically heal until Saturday (edit: he’s ruled out for six weeks).

That means I am using all my transfers.

I’m writing this section on Wednesday, so both Virgil van Dijk and Lewis Hall have not yet played their Champions League games. Fortunately, I don’t have anyone playing on Thursday. Let’s hope I come through those games unscathed.

The original plan was to simply do:

• Jurriën Timber → Joachim Andersen

• Declan Rice → Harry Wilson

… for their game against Burnley at Craven Cottage. By the way, I discussed this double-up in the latest deep dive. If you still haven’t had a chance to check it out, I recommend that you do so:

Then I’d pour myself a cup of coffee and ponder whether to save the last FT or spend it on something fun and greedy, like Marcus Tavernier to Anthony Gordon (£7.3m).

None of the above will happen, although there’s a solution you probably already see coming:

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Alright, guys.

Here’s my final Blank Gameweek 31 team:

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We are fresh off a week that was full of exceptionally boring, low-scoring games.

On the other hand, Bruno Fernandes continues his masterclass in delivering any pass he pleases, and Thiago & Dango double up took us back to the days when Wissa and Mbeumo’s chemistry was a thing.

Anyway, you know it was a bit weird one when you see this:

But Gameweek 31 is almost here, folks.

The final one before everything kicks off.

Sure, we’re heading into the first blank of the season, which is always exciting. But it’s still not THE Blank Gameweek we’re all waiting for (if predictions turn out right...).

With only 8 GWs remaining, every move we make will become increasingly impactful. Let’s analyse them all.

Fulham: Don’t fight it

Talking about Fulham players just before they face Burnley at home isn’t exactly a revelation, but low-hanging fruit is… still fruit.

The good thing is that their picks kind of work for all the managers: not only for those who will use the wildcard chip in Gameweek 32, but also for those who will postpone it until Gameweek 35 or have already used it.

However, if you belong to the second or third group, some caution is needed, especially if you’re going for double up:

Burnley this week is offset by the Cottagers facing Liverpool in GW32, so having proper bench cover is definitely a good idea.

A few weeks ago, I might have said Brentford wasn’t the best match-up, but their defensive performances have been somewhat suspect since January:

• 15.6 xG conceded (1.41 xGC per game), which is the league’s average

• 9th in xG per shot conceded, which doesn’t seem like Brentford, as their philosophy is to allow the least dangerous shots possible

• 7th for xGC from set pieces

There are games in which Fulham can maintain a sustained open play threat. They are also strong at attacking set pieces.

❗ Plus, their chance creation mainly relies on crosses and long passes into cutback zones — the Bees often struggle to defend both of these, so it’s an even better match-up when you look deeper.

Of course, there’s no guarantee Fulham will get a result, as Premier League analysts see the same things I do (especially Brentford’s), and Keith Andrews will be well aware. However, I suspect there will be chances for both sides. If the reverse fixture was any indication, it was an even affair.

Then there’s Aston Villa at home, which is another good fixture. I discussed them extensively in last week’s deep dive:

You might be reluctant to hop on the Harry Wilson (£6.0m) & Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) trend because it seems like everyone’s doing it, but I wouldn’t overthink it.

The simplest answer is often correct, however dull it may sound:

• The Twitter/X bubble is just a fraction of the total player pool. Wilson is owned by 22.7% of managers (25% EO in my rank group, for example), which is a significant share but still enough to earn you some points. Andersen is in 5.3% of the teams (about 20% EO in the engaged rank group).

• They work well together. As a former DFS player, I understand a lot about synergy, stacking, and finding players who complement each other, whether through their chemistry during open play or their set-piece connections. Kids on social media now refer to this as CoVar (correlated variance).

  In this case, it’s quite simple: Wilson is one of the set-piece takers, and although he shares that role with Alex Iwobi and Saša Lukič, it’s a nice bonus if you also own the Dane, who is the most frequent receiver and takes the most set-piece shots.

• In 9 out of 10 cases, you would choose a stack with this kind of chemistry if you had a chance. It’s an ideal scenario.

• While they aren’t a low-owned differentials on their own, only 7% of managers own that combination. So, if you own one, it’s a nice move to add the other. Or you can add both. No problem with that. There’s still nothing wrong with template picks, even with 8 GWs left.

One game involves a lot of variance (an element of luck), but if you are exposed to those spots, however obvious they are, it’s better not to snub them regularly to force different solutions.

What about different solutions within the same team?

Well, it depends.

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I know that moving from the FA Cup weekend back to the regular action can be challenging, so I’ve decided to cover all the most-discussed topics of Gameweek 30.

There will be Erling Haaland, Liverpool, Bruno Fernandes, Aston Villa, Newcastle, captaincy, or Spurs.

Plenty to discuss: let’s get straight into it.

Aston Villa: That freefall has a simple explanation

The other day, I realised how incredibly early I became a full-time football data analyst.

Little is known that the Spurs were pioneers in that industry. Some describe it as “best kept secret from the rest of the footballing world”.

Then there was Ian Graham and his Liverpool data revolution in 2012, Arsenal acquiring the StatDNA company in the same year (but they truly integrated it much, much later), or the parallel wave of Matthew Benham’s and Tony Bloom’s projects at Brentford/FC Midtjylland and Brighton, along with the well-known history of an analytic approach at RB Leipzig.

In 2016, Slavia Prague hopped on that new, slowly emerging trend that only a few teams truly utilised. We were among the first in Europe to integrate data analytics directly into the decision-making process in the transfer market.

At many other clubs, analysts constantly fought battles to earn the trust of the “football people”. We had it from the very beginning.

What this means is that I saw a lot.

And sure, there were some outliers and asterisk events, but more often than not, when a team fails to create enough good chances and, at the same time, regularly concedes them, it can’t work for long.

Additionally, injuries to key players can instantly transform a team’s overall performance.

Aston Villa are a great example of all this.

The picture above shows OPTA’s expected points for the whole season so far. Let’s break it down into smaller parts to better understand what’s happening.

• During the first 15 games of the 2025/26 Premier League season, the Villans were 16th in the expected points (xPoints) table with around 18 xPoints. In reality, they sat third in the league table with 30 points. 

• Over the following fourteen games, their overall performance remained largely unchanged, resulting in 19 xPoints. 

  But the influx of points slowed. They earned 21, which aligns more closely with what we see on the pitch.

They are rather a mid-table team both offensively and defensively, according to not only basic expected metrics but also more advanced ones. Also, the worrying sign is the fact that they faced some of the easiest fixtures between GWs 20 and 29.

One of the reasons they weren’t able to dominate in games you’d expect them to was the concurrent injuries of three key players: Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, and John McGinn.

They aren’t the ones with massive final products, yet they have a massive influence on the game, offering an interesting mix of defensive stability, control in the build-up, and vision for the final pass. This is essentially how I’d describe Tielemans, who is also one of the most press-resistant players in the league and capable of executing difficult passes under pressure.

They are also still in the Europa League and will travel to Lille on Thursday, which leaves them less time to recover. The last three poor Premier League games were rather a signal than a perfect storm of unfortunate circumstances.

Captaincy is pretty open this gameweek.

If you’re unsure about Haaland’s minutes and can’t easily get to Liverpool players, who face demoralised Spurs, I agree that Bruno Fernandes (£10.1m) remains a good choice again this week.

United have a nice potential to hurt Villa from different types of attack, and Bruno is heavily involved in everything that happens in the final third of the pitch, so it’s an unparalleled floor, with a pretty tangible ceiling when everything clicks.

I’ve already discussed several times over the past weeks what a berserk he’s running creatively in the #10 role, and the trend should continue.

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One final note for this section:

Although I don’t think Aston Villa is a terrible fixture for your players, they will also enter a fantastic fixture run in Gameweek 31, which will last for 6 GWs. That mass selling of Morgan Rogers (£7.5m) might be a bit premature.

There are key players. And then there’s him

Some players hold immense value beyond just scoring and providing assists: they are crucial in the chain of events that precede them, and when they get injured, much of the team’s dynamics changes.

That’s a very relevant topic for Newcastle at the moment.

Though I should quickly add that the player in question certainly contributed a fair share of the final product this season…

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Alright, guys.

Here’s my final Gameweek 30 team:

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Similar to poker or daily fantasy sports, you can describe Fantasy Premier League in various ways: as a skill-based game with an element of luck, a strategy and planning game, or a decision-making ga…

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Alright, my friends.

It’s time for our next Q&A.

Please leave your questions in the comments, and I’ll make sure to answer them all before the Saturday deadline (Sat 14 Mar, 14:30 CET).

I’ll address mos…

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It’s a Friday after the midweek, and you know what that means.

Yes, your favourite midweek review.

Gameweek 29 was full of interesting stories, data, outliers, and another batch of set-piece goals, so let’s dive straight into it.

Bournemouth 0:0 Brentford (xG: 1.92 - 0.40)

Well, that was an unexpected scoreline.

Watching the game, you might get the impression that it’s already Gameweek 37, and Brentford are sitting in the middle of the table, gassed out from playing about 198 matches that professional footballers must endure nowadays.

The reality is that they are 4 points behind the Europa League places and ranked 7th in the expected points table.

Bournemouth’s defensive numbers are excellent at the Vitality Stadium, but much of it stems from the quality of opponents they’ve faced there and some circumstantial factors too complex to explain in a few paragraphs.

Yet, the Bees created just 5 shots, with only 3 from inside the box, despite no one important, apart from Vitaly Janelt, missing that game:

Unexpected stuff from the attack that accumulated the second-highest volume of dangerous chances in the last ten gameweeks, and can usually punish teams vulnerable to counters. Yeah, this is how I’d describe Brentford, if they were a person and had a photo in a high school yearbook.

Anyway, managers who own Marcos Senesi (£4.9m) and/or James Hill (£4.2m) (and let’s not forget the lately magnificent Djordje Petrovič) were a pleasant surprise. Make it double if they celebrated bench jam for Harry Wilson and Joachim Andersen.

Marcus Tavernier (£5.3m) is there for some delayed gratification.

I’m glass half full type of person, and if you’re an owner, I advise you to look at things positively: 5 shots & 1.4 xG one-man show from 1.6% owned differential is frustrating stuff, but when he can do this against Brentford, imagine the havoc against Burnley.

EO will be higher, but still juicy enough.

With Manchester United, who are a defensive powerhouse that have Senne Lammens (£5.0m) AND concede very few big chances for months now, in Gameweek 30, and a tough run after that, he’s there only for:

• The Wildcard 32 dead-enders with a lot of transfers in hand… and a plan

• Free Hitters in GW34 (all of us?), as they face Leeds at home that week

But he’s poised to make some managers happy.

Brentford now have some amends to make, though nothing really changes in terms of FPL, as Wolves, Leeds, Everton, Fulham, or West Ham are still fixtures to gain a fair share of value.

❗ Another major topic this week is the upcoming FA Cup weekend, especially for those of you who own Brentford players and are among the roughly 30-35% of managers who have already used their second wildcard. But really, it affects all of us.

Brentford are still in the competition, which means their BGW34 fixture against Manchester United could still become blank, potentially resulting in both teams having a double gameweek in DGW33. For it to happen, they must beat West Ham on Monday and then advance through the quarter-finals.

Another interesting event would be Fulham progressing into the top four, as they face Aston Villa in Gameweek 34—a team with an excellent run of fixtures.

Of course, the highlight will be the Newcastle versus Manchester City game, which could wipe out blank GW31 for City and Palace, although the chance is small.

Everton 2:0 Burnley (xG: 1.30 - 0.79)

The other day, I got a promotional email from HBO Max after I finished watching A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: The Hedge Knight (that’s a pretty long name for such a short TV series, isn’t it?).

It said that the bearer of this letter (me) has proven their chivalric virtues and should rise to protect the Seven Kingdoms forever.

In my mind, I immediately visualised Ser Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall being knighted for his brave efforts in my FPL team, scoring nearly 7 points per gameweek over the last five matches.

If you think the international break should come sooner to protect my mental health, you’re absolutely right.

Anyway, with those upcoming fixtures, his 9-pointer against Burnley was probably a poetic farewell.

But that run and the finish… it was truly something.

Recently, I noticed that Burnley have improved in defending set-pieces, with 8 other teams conceding more xG from them since January, but that didn’t stop James Tarkowski (£5.7m) from delivering a bullet header from James Garner’s (£5.2m) free kick.

Later, Garner could collect a second assist from yet another set-piece delivery, but Jarrad Branthwaite was denied by Martin Dúbravka.

Nothing changes: target Burnley whenever you can.

Let’s proceed to Bruno, Salah, Pedro, Semenyo, and how to interpret everything that happened correctly…

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The upcoming midweek could be an absolute bloodbath.

• Erling Haaland (£14.8m)

• Harry Wilson (£6.0m)

• Declan Rice (£7.5m)

• Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m)

• David Raya (£6.0m)

• Evanilson (£6.9m)

• Joachim Andersen (£4.5m)

… are…

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Alright, guys.

Here’s my final Gameweek 29 team:

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Alright, my friends.

We have a midweek here—and our next Q&A!

Please leave your questions in the comments, and I’ll try to answer as many as I can before Tuesday’s deadline (Tue 3 Mar, 19:00 CET).

This…

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While editing this article, I realised that if you read it, you’re in for one big rant.

Well, I’m a Spurs fan.

A Spurs fan who thinks the Assistant Manager chip was a genius idea compared with counting random defcons and having to play chips in the first half of the season.

I’m angry by default now.

Can Simons do a Wirtz?

Florian Wirtz’s (£8.4m) transformation from a laughing stock (which I found extremely disrespectful) to one of the best creative midfielders in the Premier League, AND a player whose decision-making in the box is on a par with the best strikers, is one of my favourite stories this season.

You saw what his injury minutes before the Nottingham Forest game did to Liverpool. Up until that stoppage-time frenzy, they created almost nothing. 

Look, I’m well aware that much of that struggle was simply down to losing an important player a few minutes before the game, which threw their entire game plan into chaos, but trust me, Wirtz’s quality had a huge say in it.

The question writes itself: Will Xavi Simons (£6.5m) make himself similarly important?

And is he even close?

One reason Wirtz’s transition to Premier League football was slow-ish was that Liverpool were in a state of chaos.

Well, Spurs… it’s twice as bad, mate.

You can’t imagine how difficult it is to play for that team right now, trust me. And if you’re adapting to a much higher-quality league and settling in, it’s even harder. There weren’t even basics, like a settled starting eleven. And the moment you’ve started to get used to things, boom, Thomas Frank is no longer your coach, and you’re forced to play in a new role (more on that later).

But he was slowly getting there.

In one of my pre-season articles, I described him as someone who:

… works hard, recovers many balls, and then, in the same spell of possession, creates something very dangerous. He can execute all kinds of vertical passes from half-spaces effectively.

And that’s exactly what he does at Spurs. He’s extremely valuable both in and out of possession.

While he executes his passes from both half-spaces with precision, a large part of his threat stems from through-balls from deep and lovely chips into zone 14 and the box. You want to make use of his full range of passing. Playing him as part of the front two isn't it. I know it was Arsenal, but that was probably his worst game in years.

Earlier this season, Frank couldn’t really utilise his running ability to move the ball into dangerous areas, though his movement caused problems for defenders and drew so many fouls in each game.

He’s not a huge goal threat, and he never was, as he took about 50% of his shots from outside the box in the Bundesliga. And it’s just been made worse by the lack of service he’s getting.

Who’s supposed to create for him? Archie Gray as the wing-back? Connor Gallagher (the biggest hope right now…)? Pape Sarr? Yves Bissouma? No. Nobody can progress the ball through the middle, especially in the final third. Spurs are the 4th-worst in the Premier League for non-penalty expected goals, and no one’s surprised by that.

I know Richarlison wasn’t match fit, Dominic Solanke had a “sore throat”, and that the bench was a truly depressing sight, but there’s still Mathys Tel? 

Anyway, the current situation makes Simons an FPL no-go, even with better fixtures.

Next season, though, he might surprise many…

Bruno Fernandes as a #10: Focus on the important stuff

Most of you likely noticed that since Michael Carrick moved Bruno Fernandes (£9.9m) into the number ten role, the constant stream of his defensive contributions has dried up.

Who would have thought…

• Pre-Gameweek 17: 10.60 defensive contributions p90 and 24% completion rate

• Gameweeks 18 to 20: injured

• Gameweeks 21 to 27: 6 contributions p90 and 14% completion rate

During that post-GW21 period, the Portuguese recover 36% fewer balls per game, which is tied not only to him playing more advanced but also to Manchester United’s defence under Carrick.

That’s something I discussed in my latest premium deep dive:

While one DEFCON two-pointer every four games is certainly a nice thing to have, and one every 6 or 7 games looks much worse, his attacking output surely skyrocketed to offset this, right? Let’s see.

The “new” Bruno:

• 1.95 non-penalty shots (most of it racked up against Spurs…)

• 0.19 xG and 0.09 post-shot xG (as per StatsBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout.com)

• 0.10 xG per shot

• 0.45 xG assisted

… while double-pivot Bruno was on:

• 2.57 non-penalty shots

• 0.20 xG and 0.15 post-shot xG

• 0.08 xG per shot

• 0.25 xG assisted

While we hoped to see more goals from those central areas close to the goal, that hasn’t happened so far. But if this means he will create so much more threat, I’m fine with that.

The volume of passes into the box and those leading directly to a shot is absurd. Frankly, he seems unstoppable in some phases of the game.

He shares set-piece duties with Bryan Mbeumo (£8.7m) and still creates so much threat from open play on top of that. Of his last 27 key passes, 21 were from open play, with a huge chunk going into the central areas of the box. Most of the time, it’s a cross, whether from the wide or the deep, that you didn’t know someone could place that well.

Bruno’s delivery from deep is three times as accurate as that of your average Premier League midfielder. Seriously.

Am I worried that it hasn’t exactly been a goal-fest? Well, there are still penalties and moments of individual brilliance to come.

Bruno will be fine.

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Don’t panic (just yet)

This one always does my head in:

Well, no.

If you ever see something like that again in this phase of the season (there’s still 29% of it to play), remain level-headed and don’t let yourself be manipulated into reckless FPL.

I’m well aware it depends on your rank/mini-league goals, but managers generally overestimate how different they need to be to gain rank:

• The Twitter/X bubble is just a small part of the entire player pool. It doesn’t mean that if those managers have the same teams, everyone will have the same teams. Look at Dango Ouattara and Kevin Schade, who are 1.8% and 1.2% owned, respectively.

• There will be template picks, but the teams definitely won’t be the same. If you need to, you can always tweak a few spots that can make a huge difference.

• Most decisions presented as 50-50 aren’t really that close: one is often much better than the other. It just requires deeper analysis, and if you do your homework, you will identify a better option.

• The ranks are still congested: if you’re ranked 1 million, you need to gain 84 points on the field to reach the top 100k. If you’re top 500k, you need 52 points.

  About 30% of players across all rank tiers have already played their 2nd Wildcard. You likely have important chips left to play, and blanks & doubles are coming.

• The number of dead teams will gradually increase.

Don’t fall into the trap of being too different just because you’re afraid you’ll be stuck and your rank won’t move.

Sometimes, you just need to zoom out.

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Yesterday, I published another deep dive analysing the current FPL/PL landscape, including:

• Why Harry Wilson is shooting less than before, and whether he can turn it around

• Whether you should sell your Chelsea assets or Declan Rice

• Reborn João Pedro. But for how long?

• One interesting United signal

And more:

Last week’s deep dive is still very much relevant:

Thanks for reading, folks.

See you next time!

Alright, guys.

Here’s my final Gameweek 28 team:

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