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Chelsea have recently experienced several turbulent managerial spells.

There was a brief affair with Enzo Maresca that ended in a messy break-up, driven by his unrelenting desire to become a new Manchester City manager. He later did, and we can look forward to more spice in the upcoming Premier League clashes between those two teams.

Liam Rosenior’s story is largely forgettable, not only because it lasted 106 days.

Now there’s hope for better times ahead.

Xabi Alonso is coming in, and you can’t deny there’s a different vibe this time.

Many of you are familiar with his illustrious playing career at Liverpool, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich, which saw him win 17 titles, including the 2010 World Cup, and work under Rafa Benítez, Carlo Ancelotti, José Mourinho, or Pep Guardiola.

His managerial one is much shorter, but far from dull.

So it begins…

Although his coaching journey began long before that, he truly put himself on the map in the 2023/24 season, when he took over Bayer 04 Leverkusen, a German Bundesliga club that had been struggling and was 17th after eight league games.

He ultimately guided them to 6th place.

I did my fair share of research for this article, which gave me good insight into how different that season was from the legendary title-winning one that followed. And the full picture is pretty revealing.

🎯 The main goal after his arrival was obvious: stabilise the defence at all costs and then build up the rest when the time is right.

In the 26 league games under his charge, Bayer recorded the 3rd-best xGC, conceding about 0.95 xG per game, a solid result.

To achieve that, he played a passive mid-block, focusing on compactness and a solid defensive structure, which allowed him to pick up second balls deep and look for opportunities to counter.

And it worked.

They defended magnificently in the low block (the best, really), and the rest defence was good enough not to concede too many big chances from fast transitions (4th-best xGA from counters).

*Rest defence is basically the shape a team maintains while attacking, so that if they lose the ball, it’s already set up to stop a counter. Think of it as the safety net behind the attack.

For most of the season, he wasn’t trying to implement his trademark counter-press.

That team literally gave up on it: there was very little re-pressing, and the press was generally one of the least intense in the Bundesliga.

Their overall xG was bang average, and they relied heavily on counters:

1️⃣ 3rd most counter-attacks
2️⃣ the 3rd highest xG from counters
3️⃣ … and the most goals scored from them

After reviewing the data and some clips, I genuinely applauded the board’s decision to let Alonso do his thing, even though it wasn’t the most pleasing football to watch.

It’s perhaps a guide to other teams not to fire their coaches in their first season, and to give them proper time to adapt and for the tactical model to click.

Unless it’s Liam Rosenior.

You can probably put a stop-loss on Liam Rosenior.

Anyway, Alonso was stabilising a broken team, and the tactical model just needed time to come together.

And it sure did in Leverkusen’s second season, which was… well, simply remarkable:

51 games.

361 days.

Bundesliga title (well deserved, as you’ll see in a bit).

Xabi Alonso and how to win the Bundesliga

In his second season, Alonso already had his defensive foundations in place and could build on them.

They recorded the lowest xG conceded, tied with Bayern, and there are several mind-blowing stats to document how dominant that season was.

This is my favourite:

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As I write this, there are still 55 days until the summer transfer window closes.

But if you pay close attention, the deals already done paint a crystal-clear picture of the trends we’ll see next season and the types of players in demand. 

You’ve got Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali to Spurs, Marco Palestra to Chelsea, Hayden Hackney to Everton, Zadok Yohanna to Brighton, or several new Premier League centre-backs.

All the players mentioned above share one trait – they are fantastic ball carriers. They use their pace to attack the space that opens up in front of them, either to gain a territorial advantage or to create chances directly. Some of them do so while being exceptional dribblers. And many of them will inject explosiveness, record-high top speeds, and relentless sprinting.

I don’t expect the Premier League to become a completely counter-attacking and transitional affair – the slow, possession-heavy football will still have its place there. But counters, swift transitions, and verticality are still massive weapons, no matter your playstyle. We saw last season how physical the league became, and those players come in handy. Also, there are managers like Andoni Iraola who won’t deviate much from their philosophy.

I left two guys from that list on purpose.

Liverpool’s new winger, Víctor Muñoz, and Bazoumana Touré’s arrival at Newcastle are even more extreme examples of pace and of unique profiles.

Farewell, Yankuba. Welcome… Yankuba?

Newcastle fans have had to endure several departures in recent years that you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy.

Ahead of the 24/25 Premier League season, they were forced to sell Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minteh to comply with PSR.

Yeah, the same Elliot Anderson for whom Manchester City paid £116 million without blinking an eye two years later.

But you know what? They decided to buy a new Minteh now.

Bazoumana Touré.

The 20-year-old Ivorian left winger joined from Bundesliga side TSG Hoffenheim for an undisclosed fee, believed to be around €47 million.

He’s a player who poses a significant creative threat in the final third of the pitch.

💡 While he can certainly arrive in the box and distribute from there, his biggest weapon is his ability to create a separation from the defender and cross from the left wide areas. You rarely see him cross from deep.

In terms of the quality of his crosses… well, a picture can sometimes tell more than a thousand words:

It’s not only a quality, but also an absurd volume.

Funny stat – although he played just under 1% of Hoffenheim’s corners (exactly one), he ranks in the 95th percentile for passes into the box per 90 minutes.

That combination of extreme accuracy and volume is genuinely scary.

His 0.22 xA p90 is well above average, and it would be even higher if he played more of other types of passes. I’d still say that his overall creativity is pretty good.

Another strong weapon is that he’s an absolute roadrunner who does a lot of ball progression by carrying – he excels in open space, both on and off the ball, and he recorded one of the fastest top speeds in the Bundesliga. ❗

Seriously, sometimes it looks like he’s just jogging, but after a few steps the defender is already trailing two metres behind him.

He’s a genuinely good athlete. Despite being just 173 cm tall, he wins many headers and ground duels, and recovers many balls during the game, which is very welcome in the Premier League. As for 1v1 dribbling skills, the volume certainly stands out, but the quality is rather average.

In general, Touré is much more of a creator than a goalscorer, averaging just 1.70 shots and 0.16 non-penalty xG per 90. He doesn’t arrive in the box too often, and when he does, it’s rarely a clear-cut chance – close to goal, but often with a lot of bodies in front of him.

Andoni Iraola 🤝 Víctor Muñoz

During the pre-season, I will continue the series of articles focusing on all Premier League managers with a lot to prove at their new clubs.

I already covered Pierre Sage, even though there’s too much DEFCON discussion for my liking:

Anyway, Andoni Iraola will be part of it, and if you have been eagerly awaiting what transfers Liverpool have up their sleeve to please a new manager, you didn’t have to wait long.

Víctor Muñoz is a 22-year-old left winger who previously played for La Liga side Osasuna. The price tag is believed to be €40 million, and they apparently beat Newcastle to the signing.

He’s an exceptionally fast player and an extremely good ball carrier. Using two superlatives in one sentence might feel like overkill, but it really isn’t.

Muñoz excels in advanced models that measure the threat he generates by carrying, mainly because he combines his pace – he recorded a higher peak sprint speed than Kylian Mbappé – with dribbling that actually creates chances.

Not Mohammed Kudus’ YouTube highlight reel dribbling that makes you want to throw things at your TV.

He attempts almost seven 1-v-1 duels during the game, and because of the sheer volume, he ranks in the 90th percentile for number of successful take-ons. 

His first instinct is to receive the ball and attack the space in front of him. The overall volume of progressive runs and carries into the final third nicely documents that:

The important thing is that he generates a lot of touches in the box and shots, as he is right-footed, unlike left-footed Bazoumana – about 2.50 attempts and 0.20 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes.

That xG figure suggests there are quite a lot of shots from outside the box and from wide angles, but the volume partially makes up for it. With better coaching, his shot map could look much better in the upcoming seasons.

Also, it should be noted that Osasuna finished 17th in La Liga last year, escaping relegation by just a goal difference, which skews some of the data.

The vast majority of his creation comes from carries, so you won’t see many final passes resulting from clever through-balls, chips or cutbacks. Most of his (pretty low) xA comes from crosses.

Another interesting Muñoz in the Premier League, then.

We just need to be a little patient if we want him to be a good fantasy pick.

🍻 For the price of a pint in a London pub, you can become a member of the Data Dribble community to gain access to exclusive pre-season content, premium deep dives, Q&As, our Discord server, and more (7-day free trial available):

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That’s all for today.

If you liked the article, I’d truly appreciate it if you could help spread the word about Data Dribble by sharing it with your mates.

See you very soon!

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It’s always nice when the media, fans and experts talk positively about the team you’re supporting*.

*Except for those moments when PSR comes up for discussion, which isn’t even a topic, because Spurs have the lowest wages-to-revenue ratio in the Premier League. They bring in huge revenue each year from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, a strict wage structure from past years, and sponsorship deals. Nothing to see here. The huge spending won’t do any harm (if it’s done properly, but I’ll get to that later…)

And while it’s easy to get carried away when the bosses spend £185 million on signing two central midfielders, Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali, whose arrivals undoubtedly address the biggest issue that last season’s Tottenham faced, there’s much more to the story.

A few days ago, I listened to a non-FPL podcast where a respected voice in the football industry said that these summer transfers made Tottenham Hotspur serious contenders for 3rd place, and I was like, 'WHOA, hold your horses, mate. Not yet. Not yet.‘

The rebuild is far from over. In this article, I’ll explain why.

At the same time, I have to admit that this looks very promising and makes sense:

To properly understand the transfers of Fernandes and Tonali, we must delve into how Roberto De Zerbi’s teams play.

I’m not a tactico by any means, and I don’t like it when people use unnecessarily fancy, complicated language just to sound smarter on the X/Twitter timeline, so let me be brief and clear about that.

He saved Spurs in the Premier League even without his preferred midfield types

De Zerbi loves to play with the ball.

You see his teams have a lot of possession during the game, make many passes in one spell, and don’t rush their attacks.

It simply takes a long time before his players create a shot. That allows them to create chances against sturdy low blocks. It’s the opposite of a counter-attacking style, which, for example, Bournemouth or Brentford practice.

He also seeks to regain control quickly after defensive duels, instructing his players to stay compact (close to each other), maintain good spacing around the ball, and commit enough players to the duel to win second balls.

Simply put, if a team consistently wins those rebounds in its own defensive third and in the middle of the pitch, it often indicates good structure, intensity, and athleticism, as well as players who are great at anticipating where the ball will go.

And we saw that in Olympique Marseille regularly.

His other trademark is an intense press and counter-press. Again, it’s about winning the ball back quickly and returning to their attacking shape to put the opponent under sustained pressure.

To back this up with some numbers from his last full season, which was the 24/25 at Marseille:

• 5th highest PPDA (passes per defensive action)

• 3rd biggest share of won balls shortly after losing possession in the attacking half

• 2nd most passes per possession, just behind Paris Saint-Germain

• the highest success rate in winning second balls in the defensive third

• 2nd-best success rate in winning second balls in the middle of the pitch

• 2nd-highest possession %, just behind PSG

You get the idea.

Now it’s crystal clear what type of players you need in the middle of the pitch to execute that playstyle.

Someone who can pass.

Someone who can run, win duels, and read the game.

Someone like Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali.

The Spurs’ biggest issue, which I hinted at at the beginning of the article, was that last season’s midfield lacked central progression.

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This World Cup has been amazing.

How could it not be? Just look at this:

Look, I’m thinking about FPL, emerging trends in the Premier League and the summer transfer market all the time.

But this World Cup is simply so much fun, and I’m sure most of you either play the official fantasy game or have fired up a few Fanteam entries (or both). So I thought I’d mix business with pleasure and write something to perhaps help with team selection, or simply to enjoy some interesting insights.

And feed my inner monster, which is craving analytical storytelling.

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Spain: Can they stop France?

Spain are a strange one.

After the group stage concluded, they gave off a somewhat meh vibe.

Easy group, a draw with Cape Verde in the opening game, quiet Lamine Yamal, not creating much against Uruguay. Naturally, France and Argentina got all the spotlight.

But then they dominated the first knockout game against Austria, winning 3:0 and creating close to 3 xG's worth of chances, while dominating the positional battle and not giving away any dangerous chances.

Both Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal racked up 6 shots, Marc Cucurella set up 2 assists, and they genuinely looked like title contenders. It’s tough to do any data analysis based on a sample size of 4 games, skewed by playing not-so-quality opponents half the time.

But the underlying numbers look great.

They play the highest defensive line in the tournament. They don’t give away possession. And when they do, they want it back immediately, and they succeed thanks to their rapid pressing and effective counter-pressing, which is the best in the tournament so far (but again, low sample size alert).

They have an absurd success rate in aerial duels, and when it doesn’t work out, they win second balls in all parts of the pitch with ease.

If I had to use one word to describe them so far, it would be control.

As for the players, Oyarzabal and Yamal are obvious threats in the final third, and Marc Cucurella is one of the main creators. But for me, Pedri is Spain’s MVP and firmly deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as an elite group that includes Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland.

What does he do?

Well, everything.

• He recovers 7.5 balls per 90 minutes (90th percentile) and shines in the defensive actions VAEP metric, which means he regularly disrupts dangerous attacks.

• He ranks in the 95th percentile for both run VAEP and pass VAEP, meaning his progressive actions increase the team’s chances of scoring.

• He plays great final passes, and his xA hovers around 0.45. There’s no other central midfielder at this Mundial who offers performances this elite across all these departments. Pedri is the guy who glues it all together.

They’re on the disgusting side of the bracket – they play Portugal in the round of 16, and if they make it, it will be one of the USA and Belgium. Then it’s most likely France in the semi-finals, as no one can even imagine they wouldn’t beat Paraguay and one of Canada/Morocco (though I love Morocco).

That game could become one of the greatest of all time.

Argentina: Messi, camaraderie and good vibes

There’s an incredible sense of togetherness and a great vibe around this team.

I don’t know, it’s probably Lionel Messi’s aura that’s taken over the squad since his hat-trick in the opening game.

Argentina’s trademark at this World Cup has been their passing game.

They’ve been averaging 6 passes per possession, the most in the tournament, and their possessions are the longest on average.

They are quite happy to play a low block, give up pressing, move up the pitch slowly, and wait for Messi to do his thing until space opens up to attack. They are really slow at times during the build-up.

Reeeeeeeeeally slow.

But they have a great defence that doesn’t concede many good shots (they allowed just 2 shots on target during the group phase), which is important.

They also won a draw lottery – OPTA predict they will reach the semi-finals in more than 50% of cases, most likely beating Egypt and Switzerland/Colombia. Hard to dispute that, despite today’s drama.

France: Sit back and enjoy

I will hardly say anything new.

They’re impressive, playing this perfectly fluid attacking system with the full-backs pushing high to fill the gaps when the wingers do their thing.

You think, right, let’s double up on Kylian Mbappé.

Sure, but he just gives the ball to Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, or Bradley Barcola, who’s running like a berserk because he has his personal mission to keep Désiré Doué off the pitch. Or vice versa. It’s a nightmare to play against.

Plus, Michael Olise has transformed into something hard to describe with words. And I like to think I’m good with them.

Unsurprisingly, he tops every possible metric for progressing the ball with passing. On top of that, he’s elite in carrying, dribbling, creating mind-blowing final passes for his mates, getting into chances, and EVEN WINNING THE BALL BACK. What is this sorcery?

And then came that moment when he launched himself into the air for a scissor kick on the edge of the box, only to narrowly miss what would have been the goal of the tournament…

I nearly spilt my drink watching that.

It’s not only those four (five). Tchouameni recovers the ball where it matters, and Rabiot complements the superstars around him technically – he can progress the ball and create chances.

Upamecano and Saliba are great on the ground and on the ball.

I can see some lapses in the air going forward, but they are clear favourites to win it all.

⭐ The Data Dribble premium is back!

This is shaping up to be an insanely fun pre-season, and those managerial changes are a big part of it.

I kicked off this article series with a detailed look at what’s happening at Crystal Palace. Yes, it includes DEFCON predictions.

Brazil: Could Norway exploit their weaknesses?

Brazil are tricky.

There’s a lot to like, but there are also many things their opponents can exploit.

If you think France does a fair share of counter-attacking, I recommend watching some Brazil games. They created 69% more xG from those attacks than France, the second-best team in this metric (their total xG is similar).

The key driver behind this is *surprise, surprise* Vinícius Júnior, who posts one of the best results in metrics that measure how his runs and dribbles increase the team’s chances of scoring… and of not conceding.

The problem is, he’s miles ahead of the rest of the team.

So far, aside from Viní, it’s Marquinhos and Gabriel who are doing the fair share of progressing, which is… not ideal.

❗ Rayan has a magnificent final pass, as does Bruno Guimarães, but they need to be in the final third enough to produce these in usual volumes. When someone figures out how to stop a Real Madrid winger from progressing the ball into those areas, they will be in a pickle.

Also, we don’t know what will happen when someone truly exploits their flanks. Norway don’t have the same quality as some other teams out wide – unless you’re bullish on some of their youngsters – which is good news for Brazil. I’d say they win the game, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t: another of their weaknesses is defending set-pieces, and that’s where Norway and Erling Haaland can cause serious damage. 

Seleção shouldn’t have too many problems breaking down low blocks, despite their counterattacking style, but they need Matheus Cunha to remain the goal threat he was in previous games. So far, he’s been great.

If they make it, it’s either England or Mexico. And when it happens, there might be another article.

England: Fated to suffer

They are probably a better team than all the yapping on social media suggests.

And they have Harry Kane.

Is Jude Bellingham a better footballer playing as #8 rather than #10? Yeah, probably, but even if he laid golden eggs, criticism wouldn’t stop. He’s alright, don’t worry.

England can create against deep blocks, pose a big threat from set pieces, and defend pretty well, which are good foundations for a deep run in a football tournament if you ask me.

In terms of standout players, apart from those two already mentioned, Declan Rice is having a great tournament and does exactly what you’d expect from him. Elliot Anderson is genuinely one of the best #6s in the tournament, and Manchester City have a true gem in him – the volume of ball recoveries in front of centre-backs and his aerial duelling are top-notch.

Noni Madueke’s criticism isn’t entirely fair. He’s not a big goal threat himself, but only Lamine Yamal (and Kenan Yildiz) gets the ball into the box more often than he does. He’s a great ball progressor who creates dangerous moments. It’s just those shots that are missing.

Still, I wouldn’t say anyone has a truly poor tournament.

Apart from Jordan Pickford.

Jordan Pickford must wake up.

The match against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca will be tough. Could England be sent packing? Possibly, but they will put up a good fight, even though they must be gassed out after the long season. Look, from now on, it most likely won’t be smooth sailing in any of their games.

Portugal: No, sorry

My sincere apologies to all Portugal fans.

I just can’t really warm to them.

Watching a struggling Cristiano Ronaldo, who gets just one touch in the box and a single open-play shot over 81 minutes, is just annoying, and from an outsider’s perspective, it’s hard to cheer for that (I know there was a goal ruled out).

Especially when you’re not getting the best out of a midfield of Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, and João Neves, and your creative fullback duo of Mendes & Cancelo. And it was Ronaldo’s second poor performance in a row.

They don’t stand out in attack. They don’t stand out in defence. And dare I say it, Bruno Fernandes doesn’t look like his best when playing in this type of advanced role. Also, Neves and Neto failed to convince me. Neto, in particular, was awful.

It seems that Vitinha is playing with far more confidence than others do.

Other teams:

As for the rest of the teams, let’s take a brief look at their games:

USA vs Belgium: This is genuinely a coin toss. Belgium have one of the worst defences among the “top” teams, and USA are genuinely fun to watch – a high-energy, high-tempo side that will cause problems even without Folarin Balogun, who will serve a one-match ban. His replacement, Ricardo Pepi, will be eager to shine. He’s a nice fantasy punt, but they likely won’t make it through the quarter-finals.

Canada vs Morocco: I like a lot about this Moroccan team, but sadly the draw was harsh on them, as they will face France in the QF if they advance. Pour yourself your favourite drink and enjoy Achraf Hakimi, Ismael Saibari, Bilal El Khannous and others in a game that promises an electric atmosphere against one of the host nations.

Switzerland vs Colombia: This one will be amazing. I can’t wait for it. Colombia are fun (for example, they have the most counter-attacks in the tournament). Switzerland are also fun. There are exciting players on both sides. Two dark horses facing each other.

That’s all for today. Let me know in the comments below if you’d like more World Cup content for the rest of the tournament.

See you soon.

🌟 Can you already feel the excitement? Xabi Alonso, Enzo Maresca, Andoni Iraola, Marco Rose, and Roberto De Zerbi (you can still count him in) – all of them will have plenty to prove in the upcoming campaign at their new clubs. Rumours also suggest Oliver Glasner is joining Nottingham Forest. Let’s kick off this pre-season series with Pierre Sage, Crystal Palace’s new manager – I’m a sucker for a good story, and this is it.

What you’ll learn in this article:

• How strong a rival was Lens to PSG?

• Why the story reads like Moneyball mixed with Band of Brothers

• What is Sage’s attacking philosophy, and how do his teams create shots?

• Whether there’s a chance he will create a new standout DEFCON midfielder (spoiler alert: he might)

• Whether Palace defenders will keep getting DEFCONs

• And much more!

There are no official moves yet for Crystal Palace in the summer transfer market, but we don’t mind at all. As planned, Oliver Glasner left the team at the end of last season, and Pierre Sage was appointed to fill the role that had been briefly vacant.

The former Lens manager led the French team for the entire 25/26 season, finished second, just 6 points behind Paris Saint-Germain, and won the Coupe de France for the first time in the club's history. This earned him the title of last season’s Ligue 1 Manager of the Year.

Was this just luck, or was it backed by good performances?

The short answer is good performances.

Very good performances.

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They gave PSG a real run for their money

Let me begin the long answer with a brief look at some basic data, so you can see why the club chose the 47-year-old Frenchman.

Then we move on to juicier, mostly FPL, stuff.

The expected points table, which accounts for both the quality of created and conceded chances, is a good first indicator of whether the team ran hot during the season or performed above expectations. ❗

Neither happened to Lens. 

They finished 2nd in the non-penalty xPoints table, with a 5-point gap on PSG, which is quite remarkable given that their rivals won the Champions League for the second time in a row…

They also have the second-best xG difference, and those numbers show an obvious qualitative gap between them, PSG, and the rest of the league. It looks like a much more exciting move than Liam Rosenior coming to Chelsea last season.

Perhaps the most exciting stat is the total xG created – Lens created 65+ expected goals, while PSG ended up on 62.

That metric isn’t perfect, and you usually need to put those numbers in proper context, such as PSG having a team full of world-class players who can finish mathematically worse chances at a higher rate. 

Remember Ousmane Dembelé’s hat trick against Norway last week? Yeah, that’s what I’m talking about. 

But it doesn’t matter, because the key point is this – Lens were a team that regularly created a huge volume of dangerous chances close to goal, and rank among the very best attacks in Ligue 1, scoring 61 actual non-penalty goals (PSG were on 68).

He must have worked with a pretty good squad to be able to chase PSG, you’re probably thinking?

To compete for Champions League spots in a team that plays in one of the top 5 leagues, you obviously need to be a great player. You are among roughly 0.001% of registered footballers who ever achieve that. And some of the Lens players had fantastic seasons.

Mamadou Sangaré (24) is a hot property now. Rumour has it that Manchester United and Brighton are very interested, and some say he could even reunite with Sage in the coming weeks. 

Rayan Fofana (20) is a dribbly striker who can run and is sometimes impossible to stop without a foul. Plus, he does all the other things you’d expect of a centre-forward and is reportedly being monitored by Arsenal.

But looking at the Lens squad, it’s not a star-studded roster full of sought-after players.

Odsonne Edouard and Malang Sarr struggled for several seasons.

One of their standout players, 29-year-old Matthieu Udol, isn’t a name you’d list among the best fullbacks in the top 5 leagues in recent times – he even spent two of the last five campaigns in Ligue 2, playing for Metz.

Adrien Thomasson, Florian Thauvin, Wesley Saïd, and Ruben Aguilar, who also played major roles in their successful campaign, have an average age of 32 but had fantastic seasons across the number 8, 10, and fb positions.

You know I like pop-culture references.

And this sounds a bit like a blend of Band of Brothers and Moneyball.

Anyway, the interesting thing about Sage is that he seems able to work with almost anyone, regardless of their status. He’s not afraid of big stars.

The story goes that when he arrived in Lyon’s dressing room a few seasons before taking over at Lens – meeting a squad of star players reportedly difficult to manage – he said:

Guys, whatever game plan I give you, you have to execute it.

That sounds like a line Billy Beane would deliver.

Whether he gave a similar speech after arriving at Lens remains unclear, but it’s safe to say it worked.

Why Pierre Sage must stay brave

Lens created a lot from slow attacks and sustained threat in the final third against deep blocks, again, not far from the threat PSG produced.

But the even better news is that they were quite varied in how they created:

• they scored the most goals from counters (and created the most xG from counters)

• they scored the most goals when re-pressing (and had the most xG from it)

• … and scored the most goals from set pieces (well, you can guess now)

Sage can adapt multiple plans in the final third of the pitch.

Data clearly show this. His attacking philosophy can be summed up in three words: fluid, versatile, and creative.

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We’re officially wrapping up the season with this article! 💥 To remind you, the whole month of June is FREE for you. I’ll pause billing from 1st to 30th June, so you don’t need to do anything. More info here:

In about a month, the Data Dribble will be one year old. 🎁

With the season wrapped up, it’s a good time to share some behind-the-scenes data.

Because there’s no such thing as too much data.

Our new home was born from merging my old Beehiiv newsletter with a Patreon premium community I ran for about half the 2024/25 season – true OGs will remember both.

The timing was ideal because a few months later, the X/Twitter algorithm killed the reach of long-form content, including my threads. It became pointless to spend so much time writing them, especially when I had another platform that suited that type of content.

However, every cloud has a silver lining.

I could channel all my fantasy focus into our community.

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There’s one more week of content! Today, it will be a classic season review. Later, I’ll share some interesting Data Dribble data (naturally), throw in some personal and business updates, and share future plans.

To remind you: the whole month of June is FREE for you. I’ll pause billing from 1st to 30th June, so you don’t have to do anything. More info here:

Alright, team!

Let’s wrap up this season properly.

If you’re reading this, I assume you like data, so here are some nice season reviews I came across. I have no affiliation with them (though I wouldn’t mind). I simply like them:

• LiveFPL: You can save your GW history and season analysis data to an Excel file before they’re wiped here.

• NextXI.app: It generates your team of the season, and some data on top of that. You can check it here.

• FPLCopilot: There’s a nice tool that my mate Spiros is building, and it also includes a season review page here.

Feel free to share any others you found in the comments below.

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Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well-preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming, 'Wow! What a Ride!'

- Hunter S. Thompson

I first came across this quote about 17 years ago while translating The Godfather of Poker, the fascinating true-life story of Doyle Brunson, a legendary Texas gambler and one of the most iconic poker players in history.

Both the book and the original saying embody a spirit of living boldly, taking risks, and fully experiencing life. It somehow popped into my mind as I started writing this.

Gameweek 38 – wow, what a ride to get there! Some of us might be a bit worn out, some less so, and some have had a time of their lives. And everything suggests it’s not over yet.

Arsenal winning the title in GW37 set the tone for a chaotic ultimate gameweek of the 2025/2026 season.

Rotation and how to handle it

Here’s my bus team for Gameweek 38:

1 free transfer and £0.5 million in the bank.

As always, if you haven’t had the chance to read this week’s deep dive, I recommend that you check it out. I discussed where the goals could be and reviewed potential differentials, all with a properly contextualised data analysis:

Given the potential rotation looming this week, the general approach isn’t to search for who you want, but rather to identify who you do not. ❗

In my team, it’s João Pedro (£7.4m), who may not be fully fit (pending press conference).

Then there are Arsenal and Manchester City players, for obvious reasons. With my modest bank of free transfers, my hands are tied here, so let’s see how serious the situation is:

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Alright, guys.

Here’s my final Gameweek 38 team:

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If a player analysis is combined with the right match-up context, it can still give you a significant edge in FPL that no solver can (yet?) replicate.

At the same time, it doesn’t automatically mean everything will pan out exactly as predicted.

This is simply because a single game of football involves an absurd amount of luck, a fact you must accept*. But by doing this two-layered analysis™, you’re increasing your chances of long-term success.

I’m mainly focusing on match-up analysis across three cases on Data Dribble:

• Free Hit guides

• Differentials for the run-in

• Weekly non-transfer decisions during a regular season – who to bench and who to play, bench order, or captaincy (less so, being pretty conservative with that)

💡 When everything clicks, it’s almost as if you’ve just predicted the future.

Best told in pictures.

Brentford, long throws, and Dango’s haul

There are often positional and stylistic advantages, or even some very specific stuff:

At the same time, there are players who are about to blow up.

Think of it as buying undervalued stocks:

It was a clash between the team that mastered the new Premier League trend and the one that struggled to adapt to it.

Long throws always start with Michael Kayode…

The Palace often allowed this chaos inside the box:

… and Dango Ouattara has a knack for picking the right spots close to goal:

Second goal for Dango in that game.

2% effective ownership.

Honestly, I covered differentials in such detail last week because the pool of viable picks felt much stronger in GW37 than in GW38. Let’s see what’s changed since then and whether any edges have opened up.

💡 Oftentimes, boring stuff works.

All you need to do is repeat the same process and frameworks for every single GW to get good results. It works the same way in fitness, in business, and in FPL.

If you don’t need a differential, don’t force it – you might be in a perfect spot to just pick the best player you identify, without looking at EO. I’ll still try to make that article enjoyable for you and throw in some interesting stuff, but always do what you need to do.

People are selling Brighton players. Why?

A few months ago, Brighton players in this fixture wouldn’t have excited me much.

But the Premier League is a dynamic, ever-shifting beast, and things look very different now.

Brighton were a source of heartbreak for many of us last week after conceding in the final minutes of the Leeds game and failing to score a single goal despite having the game under control.

The Whites won 1:0, but it was a poor overall performance, with many chances conceded and only one good shot created (after Van Hecke’s terrible mistake) – Brighton racked up 3.06 expected goals, compared with Leeds’ meagre 0.39.

It was just another proof that Brighton have had a fantastic second half of the season and that they deserve to be in the running for European places.

Let’s see some data from the last 10 games:

• 2nd for xG created

• 2nd for xG conceded

• 2nd for expected points

• 4th for actual points

And we can go deeper than that.

❗ In those last 10 games, Brighton’s biggest share of threat comes from sustained build-up play and slow positional attacks. They scored 11 goals from them, the most in the league during that period.

They launch very few counter-attacks, which is a good thing, as Manchester United are great at defending those.

However, they are certainly vulnerable when pinned down in their defensive third. And while they ranked among the best Premier League defences at one point, they're not that great nowadays…

In that late-February+ sample, only Everton, Forest, Wolves, Newcastle and Burnley conceded a higher volume of dangerous shots.

Having Senne Lammens (£5.1m) is proving pretty handy. There’s every chance United will allow Brighton several good shots. It’s a trend now.

This week, Ted Knutson published an article examining why “on the beach” teams keep getting results despite having nothing to play for.

One possible explanation he offers is that there are still financial incentives for finishing higher in the league table – the higher the position, the bigger the bonus money for players and coaches. While that may be true for some, it seems United try to win those games simply by attacking more than defending. That’s exactly what beached teams are known for.

So, if you’re arriving in Gameweek 38 as a GW32 wildcarder loaded with Brighton players, it’s not the end of the world, especially when you own Jack Hinshelwood (£5.2m), Pascal Gross (£5.6m), or Danny Welbeck (£6.4m).

As for Jan Paul Van Hecke (£4.7m), that’s team-dependent, but United are quite susceptible to set pieces, and meeting a DEFCON threshold is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Burnley vs Wolves: Is there anyone?

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Alright, everyone.

It’s time for the final Q&A of the 2025/2026 season!

❗ Please leave your questions in the comments, and I’ll make sure to answer them all by the Sunday deadline (Sun 24 May, 15:30 CE…

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With the 2025/2026 season ending in three weeks, I wanted to share my summer plan for Data Dribble with you.

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ℹ️ There are fewer than two weeks until the season ends.

What does this mean for your premium subscriptions, and what’s the summer plan? See the article below (spoiler alert: you don’t have to do anything):

Another quick turnaround (Friday evening deadline), so let’s jump straight into team selection.

This stage of the season demands transfers, and there are often several strong picks, even with only 2 gameweeks left.

My team is no exception.

Gameweek 37: 1 free transfer now, or 2 next week?

Here’s my Gameweek 37 bus team:

1 free transfer and £0.5 million in the bank to spend.

At this transfer crossroads, I have only two options: use 1 FT in each of the remaining GWs, or roll this week and use 2 FTs in Gameweek 38.

The only thing I’m willing to see burn this season is Arsenal’s title hopes.

There are 3 questions to ask:

1️⃣ Do I need to do anything?
2️⃣ What’s the opportunity cost of not making a move?
3️⃣ What’s an advantage of making moves next week?

As for the first question, there are two important factors: squad quality and potential rotation.

There are several players I’m not too keen to start this week: Marcus Tavernier (£5.4m), James Hill (£4.2m), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m), Pascal Struijk (£4.2m), and I also have some doubts about Antoine Semenyo (£8.1m).

The reasoning is straightforward.

I won’t play any Leeds players to avoid clashing with my Brighton stack of Verbruggen, Van Hecke, and Hinshelwood – as you know from previous articles, I’m not only bullish on their defence but also on Hinshelwood, who has been one of the best-performing midfielders recently. There’s no way I’m benching any of them against a team that’s firmly on the beach.

As for Bournemouth, the City match-up puts me off, as it’ll likely cap Tavernier’s upside, especially given that penalty duties seem to have been handed to Junior Kroupi.

I’m somewhat willing to play Hill, as the Cherries are strong at home: there’s a chance it will be a tight game, and a DEFCON two-pointer feels like an 80% certainty (he has a 77% success rate in the post-Christmas sample).

Assessing Antoine Semenyo (£8.1m) is a proper headache.

Manchester City are facing the following schedule:

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Alright, guys.

Here’s my final Gameweek 37 team:

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Sensible and boring usually pays off.

But the things you will truly remember as an FPL manager are James Tarkowski’s 15-pointer when betting against DGW players, or Jack Hinshelwood scoring goals at 6% effective ownership.

While I’m not a fan of overly forced differentials during the regular season, the endgame creates room for well-timed plays to chase ranks: manipulating effective ownerships, stacking for specific match-ups, and going for the ceiling rather than the steady floor. You know the drill.

Some picks even let you forget DEFCONs for a minute. Refreshing.

Let’s see some fun ones.

Palace vs Everton: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall on the rise

Recently, I outlined 3 general rules for picking a sensible differential. These were:

• aim for teams that still have a lot to play for

• favour players with similar EVs but lower EOs than more popular picks

• … and go for a combination of synergies + the final product

I used Everton players as a case study simply because they checked all three boxes.

And, funnily enough, they ended up involved in one of the most entertaining matches of Gameweek 36. As they say, you don’t defend on the beach. The beach is for fun stuff.

Going deep into the match-up analysis doesn’t automatically mean the game will follow a pre-written script. A single game involves an absurd amount of variance (luck), which is why it’s important to make good decisions week in, week out, and not to worry too much about misfortune.

This time, however, it panned out pretty well:

1️⃣ The corner routines were, once more, centred on James Tarkowski (£5.7m), who recorded 4 shots from them, scoring one goal. With an assist and 13 defensive contributions on top of that, he finished GW36 with 15 points – despite Everton conceding twice.

Michael Keane recorded two shots but failed to meet the DEFCON threshold, resulting in a 1-pointer.

2️⃣ Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£5.2m) continued the trend of making each shot as dangerous as possible.

He missed this chance:

Interestingly, he and James Garner (£5.2m) shared set-pieces equally, each racking up 5 corner kicks. Before the game, Garner was on 41 and KDH on 8 this calendar year.

3️⃣ Beto (£5.0m) returned straight back into the starting line-up and recorded yet another close-range shot, slotting it through Henderson’s legs.

With Sunderland (h) and Spurs (a) still to come, it’s reasonable to expect their picks to grow in popularity. However, they should still remain low enough to secure pretty nice rank gains, even among the engaged player pool.

TSB% at the time of writing this are: James Tarkowski 11.5%, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 6.7%, James Garner (3.8%), Beto (3%).

The highest EO risk is with Dewsbury-Hall, as it was already around 10% in some engaged rank groups.

I’m going to keep hating on Iliman Ndiaye (£6.2m), even though he showed some final product on Sunday. It’s because he didn’t do much in those 12 games before then. If he fails to meet the DEFCON threshold (now the third game in a row) and doesn’t get a penalty, you’re facing a very realistic blank.

Anyway, this section was intended to remind you of the process and to set the tone for the rest of the article.

Now, let’s discuss the folks many of you have forgotten about.

Keane Lewis-Potter & Nathan Collins: Who’s the one?

Unless stated otherwise, I’ll use data from February onwards, covering 12 games, to provide a recent sample while filtering out noise. In the proper context, it’s enough.

In the previous section, I mentioned that the Palace vs Everton clash was a lot of fun.

Just look at the shot map:

Everton’s xG is not through the roof (though the StatsBomb model, via FantasyFootballScout, has it at about 1.60), but you can clearly see that Palace allowed quite a lot of shots close to goal.

They have nothing left to play for in the Premier League – Oliver Glasner was vocal about this – and will face Brentford away next, squeezed between two demanding games against Manchester City and Arsenal.

It’s a strange situation. Palace remain a solid defence, boosted by excellent Dean Henderson (£5.1m), yet the current sentiment is far from bullish. The reluctance to pick their players for the final double gameweek of the season said it all.

It’s hardly surprising, though – fatigue has set in, all eyes are on the Conference League final, and they will face a team that:

• will constantly try to exploit them in transitions

• will bomb them with long throws they can’t defend

• is solid at set pieces, while they’re not

Let’s discuss it in a little more detail.

1️⃣ Transitions: Brentford have accumulated the highest xG from counter-attacks this season. They also scored 12 goals from them, the 2nd most after Manchester City, who managed 4 more. Makes sense when you have you-know-who.

Similarly, it’s not rocket science to guess who benefits most on Brentford’s side.

It’s Igor Thiago (£7.3m).

However, he’s not a differential.

2️⃣ Long throws: You’re about to discover some of the best stats you’ve come across this season.

It’s something you can tell your mates in the pub, and they will think you really know the ball.

Brentford are topping another metric for how they create havoc in the final third of the pitch: they maintain the highest xG from long throw-ins. I have already covered this in one of the previous deep dives, but since then… well, let’s say they’re not slowing down.

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Alright, guys.

It’s time for our next Q&A.

❗ Please leave your questions in the comments, and I’ll make sure to answer them all by the Friday deadline (Fri 15 May, 19:30 CET).

I’ll address most of them …

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Alright, guys.

Here’s my final Double Gameweek 36 team:

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ℹ️ There are fewer than three weeks until the season ends.

What does this mean for your premium subscriptions, and what’s the summer plan? See the article below (spoiler alert: you don’t have to do anything):

Alright, guys, let’s cut to the chase.

The only time I tilt playing FPL is when I’m convinced I made a mistake. Late clean-sheet wipeouts, penalty misses, injuries and red cards, none of this hurts too much anymore after all those years. A good old decision-making error, on the other hand…

All the more so if the mistake is well documented.

In last week’s articles, I was raving about what a great opportunity it is to stack Bournemouth’s defence for their home clash against Crystal Palace, citing several compelling arguments for going there*. On top of that, it was a beautiful opportunity for my own team, as all of Marcos Senesi (£5.2m), James Hill (£4.2m), and Marcus Tavernier (£5.4m) were low-owned differentials.

*Most of it then panned out: Senesi’s attacking threat, a strong likelihood of a clean sheet, Palace rotating, DEFCONs for both Senesi and Hill, etc. Cheat code of a game.

Tipping the scales the other way was Cole Palmer (£10.4m), whose recent performances I hated, but Forest were expected to miss a few key players, and the xMins predictions were decent. The Englishman is also a designated penalty-taker, so I reluctantly played him instead of Hill.

At the end, his effective ownership in my rank group was a nice thing to see after the deadline – 27.1% for Palmer, 24.7% for Senesi, and 19.1% for Hill.

We all know what happened next.

This would make a great bench boost, wouldn’t it?

Anyway, let us focus on the more pleasant component of the picture above.

Jack Hinshelwood’s (£5.1m) 7-pointer on the bench is actually a great thing. It’s another mental model to help you handle the stuff that tends to get under your skin – instead of being annoyed about those benched points, reframe them:

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⭐ Welcome to your Data Dribble deep dive!

This week pays tribute to Bruno Fernandes and Bukayo Saka.

Other FPL content includes how to handle Crystal Palace, whether to sell or hold Chelsea players, how to stack Bournemouth, Brighton and Everton effectively, my new favourite under-£5m pick, and a player with the potential to become a club legend.

Only three weeks of FPL remain, folks.

That said, the season’s far from over and has the potential to finish strongly, with several exciting battles to be fought and won across the league table.

❓ Last week, I published a wildcard guide that included 11 sensible ways to differentiate for the rest of the season. We’ll discuss many of these, as well as other ways to extract value from upcoming gameweeks.

Bruno Fernandes: Watch and enjoy this mastery

My writing style is best described as analytical storytelling.

These two things might seem like an odd pairing, but somehow they work perfectly. Sometimes, there are events that make this an easy job for me.

Like every time Bruno Fernandes (£10.4m) steps on the pitch.

In the Gameweek 35 clash against Liverpool, the Portuguese racked up five passes that led directly to a shot, totalling 1.18 expected goals assisted (xGA), a figure bettered only by Bukayo Saka’s 1.26.

However you look at it, it’s elite production in a single football game. But Bruno produces this kind of creative final product regularly.

Since Michael Carrick’s appointment as United’s head coach, Bruno has recorded 99th+ percentile xGA in 71% of gameweeks.

Since Gameweek 22, when he stepped into the more advanced role permanently, he’s on 0.47 xGA per 90, the highest among players with at least 600 minutes played during that time. His ability to set up a teammate for a big chance is simply unmatched this season.

If you trust Bruno with captaincy in most weeks that are not affected by doubles or by some heavy-hitters playing Burnley, you’re essentially betting that he’ll continue to provide this volume of final passes, which will lead to assists.

This is what I’ve included in that “sensible differential list” last week:

Extremely simple idea, yes.

Still, somehow underutilised for FPL purposes.

Bruno set up Šeško as early as the 6th minute of the game, and man, what a chance that was:

A few moments later, the two combined again – this time, Šeško redeemed himself, while Bruno earned a fantasy assist:

There was another set-piece synergy between him and Casemiro in the 71st minute:

Look at the area where Casemiro received the ball…

When there’s a creative player, you can often spot a standout partnership right away. This season, it’s Rayan Cherki and Erling Haaland, or the understanding between David Brooks and Antoine Semenyo before Semenyo moved to Manchester City.

With Bruno, it’s more complicated, as he creates for everyone. Of the total xG he created for his teammates, these are the shares among the most popular FPL assets:

• Benjamin Šeško: 20.4% of the total xG Bruno created (1.622 minutes together on the pitch)

• Bryan Mbeumo: 17.40% (2.661)

• Matheus Cunha: 14.60% (2.200)

• Casemiro: 13.40% (2.400)

You can see they work exceptionally well together with Benjamin Šeško (£7.3m), and it’s not too shabby for Casemiro (£5.8m). Who cares that most of it is from set pieces? Just look for good match-ups.

What about Sunderland and Forest that come next? Yes, they fall firmly under that category.

Brighton? Not so much, but hey, I was cautious about that Brentford game, as they defend dead-ball situations magnificently, and Casemiro ended up scoring anyway. Plus, it’s DEFCON season, so the floor is there, which is nice.

It’s a shame Šeško was hooked off at half-time with a shin problem, so let’s see about updates later this week.

Bukayo Saka: He’s back, and he’s great

I’m glad I discussed Bukayo Saka last week, before his Fulham haul, so this section doesn’t appear reactionary:

If he gets proper minutes in the run-in, he’s another player who will create a ton of dangerous shots.

What about goals?

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Alright, guys.

It’s time for our next Q&A.

❗ Please leave your questions in the comments, and I’ll make sure to answer them all before another Saturday deadline (Sat 9 May, 12:00 CET).

I’ll address most…

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