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Gameweek 1 is over.

We’re moving into another phase, reader.

It’s one in which we’ll refine our pre-season assumptions – some recent events were noisy, while others brought us closer to what’s a valuable insight. The key is to distinguish between the two and stay level-headed.

Remember, there’s exactly one week before the summer transfer market shuts down. Expect significant movement that may affect teams’ dynamics and alter our selections.

Let’s start with a feel-good story, then get more serious.

Ohhhh I want to dance with Sangaré

You can see overreactions to just one week of information left and right on social media (and in the media overall).

But I don’t think this is the case.

It’s safe to say that Mamadou Sangaré (£5.5m) lived up to expectations after securing a 14-pointer, with 12 defensive contributions, 3 bonus points, and 2 assists. He won’t do it every week, but it was a swift demonstration of his potential.

DEFCON

As expected, 7 of his 12 defensive contributions came in the form of ball recoveries, a trend we can reasonably expect to continue.

Taking control of the loose ball and playing progressive action is rooted not only in his DNA but also in the way Keith Andrews’ team plays. Last season, they had:

• the 4th-best success rate at winning those second balls in their own third

• 6th in the middle of the pitch

• … and 4th in the final third

So, when you throw a player like Sangaré into the mix, you’re in for a treat.

The funny thing is, the Malian needed just 76 minutes to hit the DEFCON threshold. Let’s see how those minutes pan out in the upcoming games.

There are quite a lot of alternatives for Andrews on how to assemble his midfield, with Yarmolyuk, Janelt, Jensen, and Damsgaard all options, but Sangaré made himself important right from the get-go, and you wouldn’t expect there to be issues with his recovery.

And for £5.5 million, there’s room for error when reading into his xMins.

Once again, Brentford’s recruitment did it. They identified him as someone who would fit perfectly with what they’re trying to achieve on the pitch. That’s how you increase the likelihood the transfer will be a success, because even the best of the best are wrong quite often.

Bonus

A large share of this came from his 2 assists and from this stupid “3 big chances created” data, which has no objective basis, unlike metrics like xA or goal probability added – someone in front of their screen just clicks it subjectively.

Still, he’s involved in all parts of the pitch and can rack up those bonus points in so many different ways. I’d say his baseline will be pretty high going forward.

Assist potential

On Saturday, he recorded both a traditional assist and a fantasy one.

The first stemmed from his ability to operate in the half-spaces I mentioned above. In a build-up sequence rich in passes, he played a one-two with Dango Ouattara, making a run into the box and delivering a neat cutback pass to Kiernan Lewis-Potter.

Exclusive.

His second assist had both “Brentford” and “Mamadou Sangaré” written all over it.

The sequence was: Janelt’s corner, Collins’ flick-on at the back post to Sangaré, his shot from the centre of the box, Kinský’s save, and Kayode’s tap-in.

Him lurking in those areas is nothing surprising when you look at his shot map from the previous season in Lens:

Over 2,500+ minutes, he averaged 1.70 non-penalty shots, with an xG in the 70th percentile for his role, which is a lot when you account for the high number of long-range efforts. That centrality provides significant value to his shots. To remind you, he scored 3 goals and added 4 assists.

He entered the box about 2 times per game in France, mostly via non-cross passes, and generated almost 40 passes that led directly to a shot.

The funny thing is, that first assist against Spurs was a bit atypical for him.

💡 Usually, he likes to find runners in behind from half-spaces and zone 14 with his through-balls, so one would naturaly expect assists to follow.

Brentford were one of the best counter-attacking teams in the previous Premier League campaign, recording the 2nd highest xG from counters and scoring the 2nd most goals.

The link-up between him and Igor Thiago, Dango Ouattara, and Kevin Schade is something to monitor very closely in the upcoming games.

Also, if he keeps picking up those second balls after various set-piece routines, it will further increase his final product.

You know I love to reverse-engineer how the world’s best scouting/recruitment departments think, and this is yet another fantastic example of how it all fits together. Defensive solidity, control across all thirds of the pitch, support for their biggest attacking weapons, and commitment to the Premier League set-piece meta.

We’re lucky to see this masterclass unfold right before our eyes.

In terms of FPL, he will be difficult to ignore as a budget midfielder, but of course, you don’t need to tear apart your team in Gameweek 2, where the most efficient solution in the vast majority of cases is just to roll your transfer to gain more opportunities and information in this highly uncertain period.

❗ The perception is at an all-time high at the moment because he played a near-perfect game in near-perfect conditions. It won’t be like this in every game.

Brentford won’t face this incomplete Spurs team every week.

In fact, Leeds, (Sunderland), Bournemouth, and Chelsea are three tricky fixtures. Aston Villa and Liverpool are cheeky good after that, followed by Hull and Forest. As I said in my previews, there isn’t a stand-out fixture swing, but those main Brentford assets will continue to tick along.

Unless they miss their penalties.

You can cautiously count Sangaré into that comfy group, and Brentford among the clubs that should have your full attention.

At the time of writing this, the default Solio Analytics expected points look like this:

I believe it’s already safe to say that those £5, £5.5, £6, and £6.5 million price-bracket midfielders will offer so much value, wiggle room, and the ability to target both steady returns over time and a high ceiling in some fixture stretches this season.

Identifying those is one of the most fun aspects of FPL for me.

It might feel too reactionary to you because some of them did really well in Gameweek 1, but at the same time, there are still many who were quiet in terms of returns, and they are next to explode. We’ll discuss some of them in the next sections of today’s article.

Let’s change the scenery for a bit and talk heavy hitters.

Liverpool and Newcastle: Hardly surprising, easily exploitable in FPL

This was one of the most predictable football matches of Gameweek 1.

A basketball game with 40 shots worth 4.20 xG in total, with both teams constantly counter-attacking.

This section will have pretty compelling data-driven arguments. Probably the loudest in this article.

Unfortunately, when you lose the ball around the box, with Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Gravenberch, Frimpong, and Kerkez all very high, with no defensive-minded number 6, and having to defend against fast transitions led by Anthony Elanga, Yoanne Wissa (who was FANTASTIC), and William Osula, it is a recipe for conceding goals.

And it’s probably not very sustainable in the long term.

This was exactly my worry when I discussed Liverpool during the pre-season. Andoni Iraola will make it work offensively sooner rather than later, but balancing this and not being too vulnerable defensively won’t happen overnight.

The data were shouting from the rooftops that this would happen:

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Alright, guys.

Welcome to the first Q&A of the 2026/2027 season.

It’s nice to be back!

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Alright guys.

I’ll start the season with the following team:

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❗ Once again, there’s some theory before the Haaland and no-Haaland drafts. You can skip it, but I feel the bigger picture is extremely important here.

Alright, reader.

In less than 24 hours, we’ll begin the beautiful journey through the new FPL season, which will end on 30 May next year.

You’ll learn new things, make sound decisions, have a lot of fun, and let FPL be a pleasant experience that won’t harm your mental health – that’s the Data Dribble philosophy in a nutshell.

When you’re reading this, you’re likely to be flooded with a huge number of drafts on social media, on your favourite websites, and from YouTube creators, maybe with your mobile gallery full of screenshots of drafts you liked.

It’s a peak period of overwhelm, FOMO, and creeping doubts.

Which is perfectly normal.

Being strictly methodical helps in these situations.

The first phase of building the draft isn’t about choosing players or the structure, but about realising what type of manager you are, clarifying your goals, determining how much calculated risk you’re willing to take, and deciding on the philosophy for the first half of the season, along with the chip strategy.

Another important thing to keep in mind is that every season is different. And oh reader, this one is special. I already discussed this a few weeks ago in my chip strategy guide:

💡 This is the most uncertain season in recent times

• 9 clubs will start the season with a new manager

• Several key players had long, gruelling World Cup-affected seasons and will be eased into the new campaign, which may mean late arrivals or managed xMins

• There are 3 promoted sides, each undergoing the classic Premier League rebuild

• The transfer window will close after Gameweek 2

• There’s a 3-week international break after Gameweek 5. We’ve never had a break this long. How will managers respond? Will they adjust heavily based on what they’ve seen in the first five gameweeks?

• There’s no perfect GWs 1-19 chip strategy. You can’t draw strong conclusions from a sample size of one season

Most of us will get some things wrong in Gameweek 1 drafts.

Although I tried to predict as many things as possible in the pre-season content and have a pretty good track record over the years, it’s still just an educated guess based on the current information. Often, a single transfer can set off a chain of events that affects how a team functions.

If you have time, and haven’t had the chance to do so yet, I recommend reading the guide I mentioned above, which covers the most popular strategies and helps you get a better feel for them.

You can ignore the drafts there – use it just for strats:

The starting point

Alright, my thinking:

💡 I’ve decided to play Bench Boost in Gameweek 1 – that decision shapes everything else.

1️⃣ Playing it in GW1 lets me build the squad without carrying a suboptimal bench for longer than necessary, and without using transfers on it.

2️⃣ Also, I don’t want the chip to dictate my strategy over the long run of fixtures.

It could all pan out just fine, but I don’t want to risk situations where things outside my control, like injuries and suspensions, would prevent me from playing it in the desired week(s) and force me to postpone it, or to fix my bench with FTs just so I can play it.

I don’t want to solve those problems and lose EV/xPoints in the process.

I’ve always believed that avoiding problems before they appear is a big part of playing “good” FPL.

Yes, one of the purposes of FTs is that they help you solve problems. But they also allow you to attack the upside and capitalise on new information. I would like to focus on that.

And I feel that BB1 will allow me to do so.

💡 Why not Bench Boost 2?

Some of you will go for Bench Boost 2, which could work out well, but it doesn’t sit right with me.

The main appeal of that strategy is Coventry playing Hull at home.

Although the Sky Blues are favourites, there are so many changes in both teams that I don’t want to:

• predict how they line up

• guess at team strengths after they have spent €232 million in total

• risk injuries and suspensions between GW1 and GW2

It’s part of my risk management framework because I know I’m the type of manager who likes to take occasional calculated risks, trading steady floors for high ceilings in some spots, and I feel I need to balance that somehow.

Being conservative with captaincy is another part of that. You can think of this as a list of rules that mitigate risks, allow me to be aggressive elsewhere, and help me enjoy the game more.

Now, you can approach Bench Boost 1 in several ways

Among the engaged player pool, it’s very popular to commit to an early wildcard – you pick the week, be it GW3, GW4, or perhaps GW5, and try to maximise early fixtures before then.

Then, you act on new information about how teams play, line-ups, the transfer window, etc., during those early weeks of the Premier League, which is far from ideal for me personally. The transfer window closes late, and some teams’ dynamics can change massively in GW3+.

You wildcard into the chaos.

Alternatively, you can manipulate the draft by planning for an early Free Hit week. That’s one way of using that chip.

The other is a get-out-of-jail card (solving problems) and a ceiling-raiser (attacking upside).

Although it’s fine to use it early, you’re committing to one specific play and limiting your flexibility.

You need to assess pros and cons…

Did I mention there’s extreme uncertainty?

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Welcome to part 2 of our in-depth pre-season guide covering all 20 Premier League clubs!

I’ll discuss:

• Their strengths and weaknesses

• How appealing their opening fixtures are

• The best picks

• The picks I don’t like and other potential caveats

• What we need to pay attention to

It’s a two-part series, with each club reviewed in alphabetical order.

So, it’s technically “from Hull to Spurs”, but having Liverpool in the title makes it better to market. Sorry, guys. Sorry, Hull fans.

Anyway, this aims to provide a broader perspective on things.

Check part one below if you haven’t had a chance:

Let’s do this.

Hull City

When I spoke about Coventry last week, I noted that each of the three newly promoted teams approached squad-building differently in the summer transfer market.

At that time, Coventry had seemingly taken the most conservative approach, keeping the core together and adding to the squad without overdoing it. But then they announced the signing of the striker duo Taiwo Awoniyi and Sidiki Chérif, which raised the bill. Despite big spending, some of the new players are quite wild bets.

Hull and Ipswich have gone all in, each in slightly different ways.

Hull are actually being pretty smart in the market.

In the first wave of transfers, they brought in squad players Matt Target and Jack Butland, and announced the return of 22-year-old defensive midfielder Óscar Zambrano.

Then they went for Hidemasa Morita, an experienced player, whom I discussed in one of my previous articles.

Spoiler alert: I like him.

They also signed Joe Gelhardt, a number ten who played a key part in their promotion campaign, on a permanent deal, and a host of young players, whose average age is just under 22:

• Lucas Herrington: 19 (Colorado Rapids, CB)

• Jens Hjerto-Dahl: 20 (Tromso, #10)

• Nobel Mendy: 21 (Rayo Vallecano, CB)

• Lucas Gourna-Douath: 23 (Le Havre/RB Salzburg, #6/#8)

• Elliot Stroud: 24 (Mjällby AIF, LWB/LW)

• Konstantinos Tzolakis: 23 (Olympiakos, GK)

They know that saving the Premier League will be an extremely difficult task after one of the most improbable promotions in recent Championship history, and they are building for the future by signing cheap players with strong potential and resale value.

You can’t really argue against that.

However, you can’t expect them not to struggle.

In the expected points table, which combines their performance on both ends of the pitch and distributes points accordingly, they ranked 20th out of 24 teams.

Twentieth.

More than 30 xPoints behind Coventry and Ipswich.

While Morita and Tzolakis improve the team as a whole, their other defensive signings, Mendy, Herrington, and Gourna-Douath, are all young and need to adapt to Premier League standards (same as Morita and Tzolakis, but they should do it faster).

It is what it is.

🔋 Current status: Target them as much as possible

✅ Viable GW1 picks: None. If you’re convinced that they beat Coventry and are on Bench Boost 2, then probably Oli McBurnie or Joe Gelhardt

❌ Picks to avoid: All of them

📆 Fixture swing to attack: None at the moment

Ipswich

While I think there’s only a teeny-tiny chance Hull will stay up – and they are well aware of that – Ipswich’s management apparently refuse to accept that scenario.

Not only did they manage to keep all the key players, except perhaps Ivan Azón, but they also went big in the transfer market, bringing in:

Emersonn
Julio Enciso
Abdul Fatawu
Florentino Luis
Saša Lukič
Kjell Scherpen
Daizen Maeda
Abdoul Ouattara
Issa Diop
… or making Cedric Kipre one of their own

• The goal is clear: to buy players who can instantly improve the team across all positions. And. Not. Get. Relegated.

That’s a double-edged sword, because you’re betting that the adaptation period for it all to click will be offset by pure player quality, which isn’t always enough.

From that bunch, several can become super influential.

Enciso had an amazing season at Strasbourg. Luis is a high-volume ball-winner every team needs and is already adapted to the Premier League. Fatawu was influential even in a poor Leicester team. Maeda can be productive.

Kjell Scherpen is important because… well, having a great keeper can save you a lot of points across the season. And I could go on, as every player makes sense and fulfils a clear goal in that team.

However, the one I like most is Emersonn (£5.5m).

He’s a 22-year-old Brazilian striker who spent the last season with Ligue 1 side Toulouse, scoring 6 goals and assisting 2 across about 1,700 minutes.

Having grown to 193 cm, he’s strong in the air, which is handy for a team that needs to improve their set-pieces. In the Championship, they ranked 6th for xG and 13th for actual goals scored.

He averaged 2.80 non-penalty shots and 0.42 non-penalty xG, which are close to 75th percentile numbers in the top five leagues. It wasn’t random, as he was above average in other key metrics, such as the quality and volume of receiving in the box and touches inside it.

Of his 52 shots, 25 were with his right foot, 12 with his left, and 15 were headers, which is a nice variety.

He’s still raw and not an FPL pick yet, given the opportunity cost and uncertainty, but I like what I see.

Compared to Hull, their picks are much more popular because of their Gameweek 1 fixture at home against Sunderland, which suits the Bench Boost 1 strategy.

Before the pre-season began, Dara O’Shea (£4.0m) looked like a nice, nailed DEFCON pick, but he’s playing as the right-back under Gary O’Neil.

That makes Issa Diop (£4.0m) likely the best Ipswich DEFCON pick. If you’re more inclined to chase attacking returns, there’s Leif Davis (£4.0m). Florentino (£5.0m) will rack up DEFCONs, but he wouldn’t be my top choice from his price bracket.

🔋 Current status: Useful for Bench Boost 1. Other than that, fixture to target

✅ Viable GW1 picks: Issa Diop and Leif Davis. Dara O’Shea if there’s a hint he starts as centre-back

❌ Picks to avoid: All those new attacking players – it’s either pointless, or their xMins are shady. Or both. There are also better picks than Luis and Scherpen

📆 Fixture swing to attack: None

Leeds

We’re moving up a tier, reader.

Not long ago, I discussed them in depth in one of the articles:

The reason is that I think they could potentially do well this season – they kept the team together, and their transfers make so much sense. To remind you, they’ve signed James Trafford (£5.0m), Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m), and Harry Wilson (£6.5m) so far.

Those players fit them like a glove.

Big, fat Trafford’s gloves that will save all those shots.

Anyway, let’s recap those picks, because there are plenty.

This is how Solio Analytics ranks them for the first 8 gameweeks:

Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m) should prove to be a valuable asset. Firstly, let me say that Leeds’ defence performed pretty well despite goalkeeping issues they most likely won’t have this season.

Last season, Leeds ranked 14th for expected goals conceded, according to the StatsBomb model via FantasyFootballScout, but the gap was tiny – just 6 xGC separated them from the top 5. In some games, they will have pretty nice clean-sheet odds.

The Bosnian centre-back averaged 10.90 defensive contributions per 90 at Sassuolo, mostly thanks to clearances inside and outside the box, with a fair share of aerial ones. I’d also expect him to attack those loose balls when he won’t be heading them. He’ll be hitting the DEFCON threshold consistently.

So, that’s clean-sheet potential + DEFCON potential… and what about attacking prospects? Leeds’ absurd volume of aerials under Farke will suit him in the final third too – last season, he had a 78% win rate in set-piece aerials, placing him in the 95th percentile.

He scored two goals in a team that had the 3rd-worst set-piece expected goals…

Joe Rodon (£4.5m):

Muharemovič’s FPL son. Again, he should do well across all three defensive pillars I mentioned above. One of the very best DEF picks at that price point.

Leeds signed Nico Elvedi today, who is capable of playing in all three centre-back roles in a back 3, but spent the most time in the centre.

I’m not sure he will slot right in, but it’s one thing to monitor closely.

Anton Stach (£6.0m) and Harry Wilson (£6.5m):

For me, Stach is better value than Harry Wilson, who costs £0.5 million more, but I’m not sure I’d want either in my GW1 draft.

As for Wilson:

• He costs £6.5m, which puts him in a crowded category of viable picks

• We need a bit more information on his minutes

• His production from last season is tough to replicate, as he doesn’t find himself in good positions in the box too often. He offsets this with his shot volume, but it’s still too risky – a classic case of wait-and-see

Stach will likely produce steady returns, but has a similar problem to Wilson – too many better or similar picks priced the same or less. I’m leaning towards avoid.

Jaka Bijol (£5.0m), Jayden Bogle (£4.5m), James Justin (£4.5m):

Not bad in isolation, but not better than Muha and Rodon.

Ethan Ampadu (£5.5m):

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Posting a guide on how to use Solio was a popular request from you guys last season, even before I struck a partnership deal with this amazing bunch:

Technically, this makes the article an #ad.

However, I would never recommend anything I don’t use myself, and regular readers know that I used Solio throughout the entire last season before seeing a single penny from it.

💡 Also, I believe that using event data and solvers effectively will improve the quality of your decisions, make the game more enjoyable, and give you a substantial edge on the field.

Alright. Let’s say you’re trying the Solio Analytics tool for the first time.

You log in, go to the decision tree, create a new branch, and click “Optimise” to see what the solver suggests for the basic 5 GW horizon (you can plan up to 19 in the PRO version).

And voilà:

Now you’re sitting in front of the screen, wondering whether this was really it, just like that one night when you were 16, walking Andrea home from dancing school, and… um, never mind.

In fact, it only gets better from now on.

Using tools to make better decisions is normal

Before getting into exactly how solvers can make you a better FPL manager, let me start with the following:

It’s the year 2026, and a vocal group of people still think that optimisation tools:

• make the game a worse experience for all involved

• play the game for you

As for the first point, it vastly exceeds the scope of this article, so just briefly – solvers don’t make the game worse, just different. FPL evolves, whether you like it or not. This evolution is perfectly normal.

In 2009, you could create a Facebook group called “I like sunsets on the beach” and rack up 50,000 followers in two weeks. Playing online poker tournaments around that time was effectively printing money. Not that long ago, you could become a multimillionaire by trading meme coins.

Now, there are teenagers who have become obscenely rich by hopping on the AI trend super early. Adaptation is the skill that moves the needle, both in FPL and in life. It’s up to you whether to spend your time constantly whining about stuff or accept the rules of the game.

Knowing my readers, I know which group you belong to.

In fact, there are two important skills. First, adaptability. Second, high agency, aka making things happen yourself rather than waiting for someone else to do it for you.

Solio and other solvers are just tools.

YOU still play the game.

YOU make decisions.

Once upon a time, managers used pen and paper for this (some still do!). Some prefer Excel files or old-fashioned Windows Notepad. You should see mine from my “professional” real-money DFS career. These text files, in which I analysed players and brainstormed strategies for weighting my teams, were enormous.

Solio is like a hammer. 

A really nice hammer. 

It’s forged from high-quality steel, so the structure is solid and less prone to deforming on impact. It has a nice, durable handle. The weight is perfectly distributed, making the swing more controlled. The grip is better and absorbs vibrations, so you can hammer even more nails without your hand hurting. 

But the hammer doesn’t suddenly start levitating in the air and build a nice doghouse.

Finding your ideal chip strategy

We’re just a few days away from Gameweek 1.

The second batch of chips, introduced last season, created a compelling use case for Solio.

I used it extensively while writing the chip strategy guide:

Part of my screen looked like this:

What you’re looking at now is called a decision tree.

Think of it as the central hub where you can compare and plan your transfer routes to see what best suits your managerial style and aligns with player and team analysis.

Why a decision tree?

Well, because each decision you make in a specific gameweek has an implication for future ones. (duh)

You need to keep answering questions such as:

Would this transfer help me get the most points over a 10-Gameweek horizon (until I wildcard, for example), or would I earn more points in the long term if I save two more FTs and make a more elaborate 3-way move in two weeks?

Also, one injury can derail the whole plan. Think about how often something unexpected happens during the season, and how often you change your approach even within a single Gameweek of FPL.

Fantasy Premier League, like poker, sports betting, investing, or just life, is a game of incomplete information. A skill game with an element of luck, if you want.

Solio uses stochastic programming for FPL, a method that enables robust planning under those various uncertainties.

It makes planning around chip strategies straightforward. The fact is, the “best” chip strategy for the first half of the season doesn’t exist. If you come across someone who tries to tell you the opposite, they’re a fraud. You wouldn’t believe how many things in life you can calculate. This isn’t one of them, though.

There are several ways to be successful or reach your desired destination, be it a mini-league win, top 100k, top 10k, or whatever aspirations you might have.

💡 In Solio, you can put all chip strategies you find viable alongside each other, try to guess which transfers you’ll make along the way based on the current information, and see what suits you best.

Often, you find that many strategies are fairly close in EV (expected value/expected points), but some are safer or more convenient from a meta-game perspective:

your risk tolerance
your willingness to diverge from the template
your psychological comfort with a plan

… et cetera.

Before this season, they introduced the new “Analysis” tab, which helps you analyse the risk your squad carries. You can see your biggest rank threats and whether your team is balanced or overexposed to certain teams.

At the same time, it might not be a mistake but part of your managerial style.

The tool doesn’t tell you what to do but simply gives you more information:

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9 ways Solio could help you become a better manager

Exploring different scenarios can give you a better grasp of several key concepts we regularly discuss here on Data Dribble.

Let’s list some:

1️⃣ The most obvious one.

Optimisation tools help you see what’s possible and get a good feel for your own team and the current FPL landscape.

There’s no substitute for this.

2️⃣ One thing that might surprise you the first time you use it is how quite different transfer routes and strategies can lead to similar EV results.

Some plans may differ by as little as 1 or 2 EV* across the large sample of GWs. Not only does this mean there are more ways to play the game, as I mentioned above, both chip-strategy-wise and picks-wise, but it also makes you realise one crucial thing:

💡 Some decisions are so close that you don’t need to agonise over them, but rather spend the time on:

a) more important decisions
b) improving decision-making in general

Analysing picks is just part of the game.

You also need to consider meta-game factors such as:

• managing risk with effective ownership (covering major threats or countering them in certain spots)

• distinguishing between players’ ceilings and floors – not just total EV, but also the distribution

• valuing free transfers

• valuing more information

• understanding teams’ weaknesses and playing style

• analysing what changes when key players are injured or suspended

• ability to interpret why your players are not scoring points (and vice versa)

• mindset factors such as managing tilt (because when on tilt, you’re making worse decisions)

• improving and evaluating your decision-making frameworks*

• … and much more

*Decision-making frameworks are mental tools that make your decision-making process easier and your decisions more consistent. For example, in GWs 1-19, if two players have the same EV, I will always captain the one with higher effective ownership. Or, if they have the same EV, I will always captain the more expensive player. You get the idea.

It’s not just about hitting the solve button – I don’t think you can ever solve the game. FPL solvers are very different from poker solvers, for example.

3️⃣ It helps you understand that free transfers are the most precious thing you have – seeing the whole route can stop you from making a poor one.

For example, you instantly see that you won’t gain much EV from doing it, whereas saving it might allow you to accumulate much more later by:

• fixing a problem

• attacking the real upside

Extremely valuable.

4️⃣ I already noted this earlier.

It also highlights that even a small change this week can have a huge impact down the line.

The close decision between player A, player B, and player C can become a no-brainer when you see all the future implications.

You pick player A for a slightly higher EV, but you won’t be able to buy player D next week, which can trigger a chain of events that gets you into real trouble. You can prevent getting into those tricky spots long before they happen.

In other words, it teaches you not to think about the move in isolation. You consider 3 players, then you see the whole path, and one option now emerges as much better than the other two.

Great FPL managers will not consider more options than average managers, they will just consider better ones.

- Jonny “FPL Spaceman” Currie

5️⃣ You can react swiftly to things.

Again, injuries and suspensions happen all the time.

Also, players suddenly stopping performing happens all the time.

Players are just people, and I have countless stories from my career in professional football where the loss of “form” has nothing to do with football and everything to do with personal stuff. ❗

6️⃣ It’s a powerful idea generator.

Sometimes you think you’ve explored every possible solution, but the truth is, Solio’s computing power is greater than your brain’s.

You might have missed something. It happens to all of us. Trying to solve with different rules and constraints might reveal something you wouldn’t even consider.

7️⃣ There are also situations where you’re unsure and simply want to test your ideas against solvers.

Alternatively, if you’re advanced enough, you can reverse-engineer why solvers consider it a good solution.

All models have biases, and you can spend time understanding how they think to exploit them.

8️⃣ It helps you understand variance (an element of luck).

It’s a key to playing the game.

The classic decision quality vs the outcome discussion.

You know, I discuss this regularly on Data Dribble – football is a low-scoring game with few shots per match, so luck plays a major role in small sample sizes. You need a proper sample from the current season, or a large sample of historical seasons, for skill to prevail.

A poor decision can have a good outcome.

A great decision can have a poor outcome.

But directly seeing evidence that you’re making an informed, data-supported decision can help you immensely, mentally.

At a football company where I worked as the head of the analytical department, we placed the utmost importance on the chain of events leading up to the shot to improve teams’ decision-making in the transfer market. Shots alone aren’t enough.

9️⃣ Optimisation tools enable planning that fully captures “what-if” thinking in a meaningful way.

The chip strategy in the second half of the season is a prime example of this.

You can develop a concrete strategy for each uncertain scenario and identify those that allow you to maximise both points and flexibility in the future.

It also allows you to think in probabilities, which is extremely important.

See, I just came up with 9 ideas, and I could keep going.

I understand you might feel a bit overwhelmed now, but you don’t have to do everything at once.

That’s the beauty of FPL.

You can play it for 30 minutes a week or spend 30 hours on it. Find what suits you best. Solio allows you to do both. You’re the one who decides how much time and emotional bandwidth the game should take from you.

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If you don’t agree with something, customise it

This one is important to me.

You can add constraints and bring your own beliefs.

A constraint basically means locking or banning certain players, either for a specific Gameweek or for the whole horizon, before hitting “Optimise”. 

If you want to start the season without Erling Haaland and not consider him until Gameweek 7, you can do so easily.

You can also pick a preset based on your risk tolerance, ranging from “I just love differentials” to “I’ll play it safe, and always want to have FTs to solve problems”.

You can do a lot of customisation.

You know that I put a lot of emphasis on detailed match-up analysis during the season, constantly looking for an edge over the field and models.

For me, during the season there are often stretches when I believe a player is a better pick for a substantial run, as those matchups suit him more than the model and markets predict.

Or there is an injury, a suspension, or some other change in the team’s dynamics.

I can then edit:

• predicted minutes

• goals

• assists

• DEFCONs

• team defensive and attacking strengths

• … or penalty share.

Which is amazing.

Sometimes, you want to do just one.

Sometimes you do both: you think City’s attacking strength improves, AND Antoine Semenyo has more favourable match-ups than FDRs suggest, so you adjust City’s goals per game and bump up his share of the team’s goals.

That’s all for today.

Next up – the second part of the complete guide to the 26/27 Premier League season, followed by an article on creating a Gameweek 1 draft.

See you very soon!

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Alright, reader.

We’re only a week away from the new Premier League season, so it’s the right time to start thinking more deeply about our Gameweek 1 drafts.

Following last year’s tradition, I want to explore all 20 teams in detail to see:

• Their strengths and weaknesses

• How appealing their opening fixtures are

• The best picks

• The picks I don’t like and other potential caveats

• What we need to pay attention to

It will be a two-part series, with each club reviewed in alphabetical order.

The purpose of this one is to provide a broader macro perspective. Next week’s content will be more data-heavy.

❗ It’s annoying that there will be another round of friendlies over the weekend, which will provide more information, but it is what it is.

Let’s do this:

Arsenal

Although I’d like to kick off this series with some groundbreaking idea, simple is often right, especially at the start of the new season:

💡 The most obvious place to extract value from Arsenal is defence, despite William Saliba being set to miss the start of the season, with his return date uncertain.

For quite some time, the Gunners have been the best defensive unit in the world, averaging 0.74, 0.92, and 0.75 xG conceded p90 over the previous three seasons.

That’s insane, given how competitive the Premier League has become lately.

Even if we account for some sort of “Saliba penalty” and adjust it so it’s closer to the 2024/2025 value, it’s still enough clean-sheet potential. Not to mention, 33% of Arsenal’s xG came from set-pieces last season.

Their xG per corner was through the roof – that’s the best metric for evaluating their efficiency. As for the xG per corner conceded, it was also among the best.

Unless you’ve lost faith in Arteta’s system. 

I didn’t. Having at least some coverage is a sound decision.

• Cristian Mosquera (£5.5m): Unless they go for another centre-back, he should start regularly, though predicting DEFCONs and attacking threat is tricky. Historically, he hasn’t provided much of either – you’re buying a way into ARS defence, and anything else is just extra. Rumours about Ezri Konsa's arrival are strong, though. Monitor that.

• David Raya (£6m): Similar to Mosquera. For me, it’s a Raya vs Lammens vs Kinský vs Verbruggen decision in GW1, depending on your strategy, of course (some have two of them).

• Gabriel (£8m): Despite being priced at £8 million, he’s in almost 27% of teams. It’s really just a question of structure and your chip strategy. In those no-Haaland or/and no-early-BB teams, he’s fine to own. If he doesn’t fit, I’d suggest covering with other ARS def(s).

Anyway, this Copilot’s overview is quite something…

[Insert “I fear no man. But that thing… it scares me” meme]

• Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White (both £5.5m): Both look super enticing – and both might give you hauls that few will own – until you realise things can go south very quickly. There’s always Pierro Hincapié lurking behind. Timber is “weeks away” from starting, which could mean anything, including that you may need to transfer out White fairly soon.

Bit meh, right?

To continue the list of players whose xMins are questionable:

• Bukayo Saka (£9.5m) and Declan Rice (£7.5m), both recovering from gruelling, World Cup-affected seasons.

• Kai Havertz (£7.5m) and Viktor Gyökeres (£7.5m) – with those two, you likely want to see some dynamics first.

You can add Christos Tzolis (£6.5m), who is coming off a season in which he scored 17 goals and provided 23 assists at Club Brugge.

Even with the heavy Belgian league tax, averaging 3.60 shots, 0.51 xG, and 0.47 xGA per 90 is absurd. However, he has competition for his spot, and Arsenal might still buy a new winger.

As a reminder, the summer transfer window will close after Gameweek 2.

The good news is that, even though things are somewhat disorganised at the moment, a favourable run of fixtures should offset this:

They may be a bit slow out of the blocks and not seem super dominant, but as the season progresses, things will click again.

One reason is the signing of Bruno Guimarães (£7m).

Even though I don’t think he’s an FPL pick in Gameweek 1, largely because of uncertainty (sorry, I’ll say this a lot today), having both Declan Rice and him at their best is scary.

At Newcastle, the Brazilian did a fair share of ball progression, controlled the tempo, and regularly played line-breaking passes from both half-spaces and zone 14 (the central zone close to the box). When you pair him with a runner like Rice… well, let’s say their possession % in the final third and control in the middle of the pitch could be through the roof.

It’s not particularly interesting from a direct FPL perspective, but you want to know your picks will play for a dominant side.

These are default Solio’s xPoints for the opening 6 GWs:

🔋 Current status: Largely wait-and-see, but I’d bet the defence will still work out well. It’s a matter of system

✅ Viable GW1 picks: David Raya, Gabriel, and Cristian Mosquera. Christos Tzolis only if there’s a clear signal

❌ Picks to avoid: All the xMins risks I listed above

📆 Fixture swing to attack: They are fixture-proof

Aston Villa

The Villans will face Brighton and Arsenal in the opening two Gameweeks, which makes it difficult to include their players in Gameweek 1:

• These are two strong defences

• You’d need to hedge AVL picks with players like Verbruggen, Raya, or Mosquera

After that, the fixtures look much better. That GW3+ run includes Hull (a) in Gameweek 3*, but even if you’d want to use some precious transfers on Villa players, you likely won’t see enough over those two opening Gameweeks to be 100% confident you want them long-term.

*You can perhaps Free Hit them in, if that’s your strategy.

Also, Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne have all left the team.

In other words, Villa lost two players who were the most influential in build-up and final-third creativity.

Digne also caused some damage in the final third.

You know that I praised the arrivals of Johan Manzambi, Alejandro Garnacho, and João Gomes several times on Data Dribble, because I think all of them might pan out as fantastic moves, but it won’t happen overnight (apart from Gomes – he’ll be just fine right away).

Manzambi is a fantastic player, but he needs time to adapt (and is currently injured).

Everyone coming from the Bundesliga has to, unless their name is Haaland. Plus, we don’t yet know where he’ll play – his most natural role is number 8, but he has the skillset to deputise as a number 10 if needed. 

I believe the general idea should be to play Garnacho on the left wing, Buendia as #10, and Manzambi behind them in the double pivot, but only Unai Emery and a few others know for sure. It’s totally possible that it will be Gomes and Kamara in the double pivot, with Manzambi as number 10.

Also, this assumes that Garnacho will hit the ground running. 

I’m still convinced he could be an excellent FPL pick, but it’s far from certain:

All in all, these new dynamics don’t make Ollie Watkins at £8 million an overly enticing pick ahead of GW1.

As for the others… I don’t see the appeal yet.

🔋 Current status: Fade completely – too much uncertainty and a poor start to the season fixture-wise. But I like their transfer business and will monitor them closely

✅ Viable GW1 picks: None?

❌ Picks to avoid: Probably all of them

📆 Fixture swing to attack: There’s Hull in GW3, but the first proper fixture swing is on Gameweek 11, maybe in Gameweek 9

Brighton

Now we’re talking.

I spent the second half of the previous season praising Brighton’s defence wherever I went. At first, everything was fine, but soon the receptionist at my gym started giving me weird looks.

After Gameweek 19, they:

• conceded just 23 xG, the second-lowest, behind Arsenal

• allowed the fewest shots

• and recorded the 5th-lowest xG per shot conceded – which is great when you have one of the best shot-stoppers in the Premier League in Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m).

Let’s not pretend losing Jan Paul van Hecke isn’t a big thing, but they signed Luka Vuškovič, Pascal Struijk, and Michael Svoboda, players who will help them improve in the air, which was clearly a goal this transfer window.

So, what now?

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We have a 2.5-season sample of Enzo Maresca in England, which gives us a solid overview and some interesting insights.

In the 23/24 season, he won the Championship with Leicester, following a dominant performance – just 2 expected points behind Leeds United.

That spell is obviously the most difficult to assess, because the team’s quality was much greater than most other teams, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jamie Vardy, Ricardo Pereira, and Issahaku Fatawu forming the backbone of the team. 

This allowed for a possession-based style of football with an emphasis on positional attacks. You know, a high defensive line, a lot of passes per sequence, slow progression upfield, but also a lot of goals scored after they win the ball high.

After taking over Chelsea in the 24/25 season, he led them into the Champions League, despite managing the youngest-ever team in a single campaign.

Some interesting numbers:

• 4th in xPoints, on a par with Manchester City

• 4th in open-play xG, but 8th for goals scored from positional attacks

• 2nd-best xG from counters – Liverpool were in a league of their own, but Chelsea ranked similarly to Newcastle, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace

• So many dangerous chances conceded when counter-pressed (4th-worst xG conceded) and meh rest defence*

• 56% possession and 4 passes per possession – only City had more passes

*Rest defence is basically the shape a team maintains while attacking, so that if they lose the ball, it’s already set up to stop a counter. Think of it as the safety net behind the attack.

Those numbers tell a pretty compelling story:

1️⃣ Maresca stuck to his core principles of possession-based, sustained threat, and Chelsea created solid chances from it, though execution was sometimes off. A young squad is certainly one of the reasons, as those players are often inconsistent.

2️⃣ It was the first season, so you can’t teach players (again, very young players) everything at once – the rest defence didn’t work out too well, and building up from the back led to many errors and conceding huge chances.

3️⃣ Maresca also quickly understood that the trend in the Premier League is vertical play, and that you need to be able to pose a threat from fast transitions.

In the following season, Maresca left the team on January 1st, when Chelsea sat 9th for non-penalty xPoints, about 2 points from the fourth team, mainly because they were ranked 13th for StatsBomb xG conceded via FantasyFootballScout.

Ouch.

On closer inspection, they were once again extremely vulnerable after losing the ball while building up in their own third. It was a mix of defensive errors, constant rotation, and lack of discipline.

What Maresca improved was defending fast transitions, where Chelsea looked genuinely good.

They were also great at creating chances from counters, which shows the Italian was really aware of the new trends. Also, only United had more shots from counters than them, despite Maresca keeping faith in keeping possession and playing a lot of passes when on the ball.

Now, using this information, let’s discuss Antoine Semenyo.

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Antoine Semenyo: What’s his role now?

Copilot’s model is bullish on him.

Also, you can see there are many routes to points:

And he’s a hot topic on FPL X this week.

One phrase you hear all the time is that Maresca’s wingers have “high usage”.

In other words, they are central to everything.

“In some games Guardiola wanted me wide, some games he wanted me inside a little bit more, depending on our opposition. Enzo is just about being out wide and when you get the ball, create opportunities. It’s exciting.” - TheAthletic

This Semenyo’s quote is pretty telling.

I wouldn’t place too much weight on all those Semenyo assists in pre-season just because they happened.

They aren’t a signal he’ll replicate that rate during the season.

For a million reasons, pre-season performances aren’t predictive – teams are at different stages of the training process, team quality varies, the positions Semenyo played varied, and there was no Jérémy Doku, which changes a lot. The dynamics will be different. You need to dig deeper to get a clearer picture.

You just need to be aware of the following facts:

1️⃣ Maresca’s teams (as discussed in the previous section) are strong in transitions, which suits Semenyo – a pacey player with experience of Iraola’s intense system
2️⃣ Semenyo WILL be asked to create for others
3️⃣ Jérémy Doku will most likely play on the left
4️⃣ Jérémy Doku will also create a ton

At Leicester, Maresca’s preferred duo was Stephy Mavididi and Issahaku Fatawu, two dribbly boys who averaged more than 5 dribbles per game. Fatawu, in particular, was highly effective when taking on defenders.

Stephy Mavididi (left winger): 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0.17 xA, and 6.7 entries into the box per 90. Most of his threat came from carrying the ball into the box and delivering final passes from there. He was quite a poor crosser, but he contributed with a high volume of cutbacks and many vertical passes from the half-space.

Issahaku Fatawu (right winger): 2.20 shots, 0.16 xG, 0.38 xA, and 7.8 entries into the box. Compared to Mavididi, he’s more of a crosser and passer. In fact, his crosses were among the best in the league. They were highly effective from the wide areas, but those from deeper areas were great too. He played not only amazing deliveries to the back post but also a variety of other passes from cutbacks.

Does this duo remind you of someone?

Maresca right now:

For comparison, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s goal threat was higher, with 1.9 shots and 0.25 xG. However, this doesn’t mean Maresca kills his midfielder’s goal threat entirely.

At Chelsea, Noni Madueke had his best season, in my opinion, as his right winger. It was the season when he did this:

He was super intense back then

3.50 non-penalty shots and 0.40 non-penalty xG (both at the 95th percentile), plus 0.15 xA on top of that.

When it came to shot creation, there were passes inside the box, deep crosses, and cutbacks, with more than 55% of his entries into the box coming from his runs.

Jadon Sancho, on the other flank, offered a combination of passes and runs with very little goal threat. He averaged just 1.20 shots and 0.08 xG (plus 0.16 xA). Again, a huge chunk of his creativity came from passes after arriving inside the box, but he was pretty active in half space too. He almost didn’t cross.

In his last Chelsea season, Maresca played mostly Pedro Neto on the right and Alejandro Garnacho on the left, so he had plenty of running and crossing power at his disposal. Again, both players produced many passes within the box and from the cutback zone, and he utilised their other strengths too, mainly through Neto’s crosses.

From what I’ve seen, Semenyo should have a lot of creative duties and fit that system perfectly. As a by-product, there should be assists.

With an £8.5 million price tag, as an FPL manager, you also want goals from him.

So, will he score goals, or is there no value?

The fact is, no one will tell you. All we can do is assess what has already happened and put it into proper context.

Semenyo can score goals (duh).

And the current Solio Analytics’ predicted points acknowledge this dual threat:

Do you remember the earlier point about Maresca realising that you must execute your transitions, and how, despite favouring positional play, his teams consistently create high-xG chances from counters?

Well, Semenyo’s goal-scoring potential comes from all sorts of transitions, runs on the back post, or dribbling and running into the box against a more settled block.

He should get his shots. Part of this is that Doku is a creator-first winger, not a goal-scorer. He never has been in his career, and we have a sufficient sample size to say he won’t be this season. Not in this team.

Someone needs to accompany Haaland as a goal-scorer, and it will most likely be Semenyo, and potentially Phil Foden, if he gets good minutes, constantly competing (likely) for them with Rayan Cherki. The French also isn’t a 10+ goals-every-season type of player.

I often see people saying Semenyo’s best position is on the left, and that he possibly settling on the other flank is worrying. That’s a form of recency bias, though.

Let’s not forget that in the 23/24 season at Bournemouth, he played the majority of his minutes on the right, with 2.7 shots, 0.20 xG, and great finishing numbers.

A season later, he was simply outstanding there, averaging 3.60 non-penalty shots, 0.37 non-penalty xG, and 0.19 xA. With the previous Premier League season in mind, these are almost unicorn numbers.

Nothing to worry about.

I also checked, and there’s a good variety in how Semenyo scores his goals – yes, he scores a lot from transitions, but he also has many goals against deep blocks.

Should you have Semenyo in your Gameweek 1 draft?

Well, there are so many factors that affect this. It mostly depends on your team’s structure and the chip strategy you’ll play, because fitting in an £8.5m midfielder is quite challenging.

There’s definitely an argument for waiting to see how his final product pans out. But there’s also an argument that if you own Haaland, Semenyo flooding him with passes isn’t the worst idea… (if you’re less hedging, more synergies type of manager)

But let me tell you one thing – I don’t see any reason to pay £1m more for Cole Palmer if you’re considering starting with him. Not until Palmer shows he can be the 23/24 & 24/25 Palmer again.

By the way:

If you want to improve your tactical understanding of the game, or simply want some amazing Manchester City content throughout the season, I recommend you follow my friend Alex:

What about other picks?

There are obviously Erling Haaland, Nico O’Reilly, Joško Gvardiol, Phil Foden, Marc Guéhi or Elliot Anderson.

There’s still so much we don’t know before Gameweek 1, and all you can do is make educated guesses, though I have some idea of what could happen next.

See you very soon!

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The 2026/27 season is drawing closer, reader.

Soon, the 2-part pre-season guide covering all 20 Premier League clubs will hit Data Dribble, along with another cheat-sheet-style article. But before we reach the final pre-season week, when we have the most information, I thought it would be fun to discuss some teams even earlier.

The idea is simple: look at teams whose new signings have made them more attractive FPL targets.

And one that has potential, but it’s better to proceed with caution.

I tried not to list the most obvious ones, like Chelsea, whose management has given Xabi Alonso full licence to build a team tailored to his needs.

Leeds are doing it right

They were one of the two teams to avoid relegation in the previous season.

What was even more impressive was how they did it – they were competitive from the start, and the underlying data made that crystal clear.

Which shouldn’t be too surprising to regular Data Dribble readers:

It seems we’re making this a nice tradition. Last season should have a strong psychological effect on them, as they’ve now experienced this massive confidence boost twice in a row.

First, they clinched promotion after what was one of the most dominant seasons in recent Championship history, beating the second-best team by 24 expected points. Then, right after that, they became a classic example of an average Premier League team.

When I say average, I mean it as a compliment.

Sticking with the xPoints metric (stripped of penalties) that evaluates their performance on both ends of the pitch, they were ranked 10th, with figures similar to those of Newcastle and Aston Villa.

And their approach to the transfer market also oozes confidence.

Hey Siri, Google “Trafford Arsenal triple save”

The thing is, transfers must always serve a purpose, and if you want a good case study on how to address the team’s pain points, it’s right in front of you.

The goalkeeper position was an obvious problem last season. At the start of the Premier League campaign, Lucas Perri replaced Illan Meslier after a successful season at Lyon, where he impressed with an aggressive goalkeeping style and solid shot-stopping. Even though there were some question marks about his claiming, the transfer felt reasonable.

But goalkeepers are a strange breed… (remember our Djordje Petrovič running joke, fam?)

Perri started as the #1 choice, but couldn’t pick up where he left off. Eventually, Farke lost patience with him, and 35-year-old Karl Darlow replaced him in the second half of the season. The Englishman did okay, which was more than enough compared with those previous months.

This summer, Leeds showed true ambition and signed James Trafford (£5.0m).

Which is a nice transition, because in their last Championship season, their players had to deal with him when he pulled off some black magic as a Burnley keeper. For his price, he isn’t too appealing an FPL option, sadly.

But he’s an upgrade and someone who will make Leeds better as a whole.

Tarik Muharemovič: Is the hype real?

Last season, Leeds ranked 14th for expected goals conceded, according to the StatsBomb model via FantasyFootballScout, but the gap was tiny – just 6 xGC separated them from the top 5.

Super competitive league, right?

They parted ways not only with Meslier but also with Pascal Struijk (£5.0m), whom they replaced swiftly with Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m). Again, it makes great sense in terms of squad-building, as Farke’s team DNA is built around aerials in absurd volume.

💡 Only Everton and Crystal Palace engaged in more headers in their defensive third, and they were the second most active in the final third. 

However, success rates weren’t through the roof, so you tackle this by bringing someone who can make aerial clearances in the box AND offer an aerial threat in the other one.

Last season, I wrote several articles about trends in the Premier League and how to exploit them.

Set pieces were the main focus of these articles because the number of goals from those situations skyrocketed.

Muharemovič has a 78% win rate in set-piece aerials, placing him in the 95th percentile, meaning only 5% of centre-backs in the top 5 leagues fared better.

At Sassuolo, a large share of those clearances fell to his teammate (don’t worry, there are a lot of those DEFCON-friendly too), which should help with control, as Leeds had the worst success rate in winning loose-ball duels in their own third last season.

Fortunately, they were solid in the middle of the pitch and fantastic in the final third.

Returning to attacking set pieces, Leeds recorded:

• the 5th-highest set-piece xG last season

• … and scored the 6th most actual goals.

Muharemovič was the most frequent target of corners at Sassuolo, and he recorded 2 goals and 2 assists.

Do you know what’s beautiful?

What we’ve just discussed makes Muharemovič a direct FPL pick, as there’s a scenario in which he meets all three main criteria for a good DEF pick: DEFCON hit rate, goal threat, and clean-sheet potential.

Last season, he averaged 10.90 defensive contributions per 90, mostly thanks to clearances. He also posed a set-piece threat, and Leeds might well produce some eye-catching defensive numbers.

Do you notice how well connected everything is?

For 8 years, I did these breakdowns full-time to identify the best fits in the transfer market, so looking at this genuinely excites me, as I can appreciate the process behind it.

And that’s still not all.

Their third summer transfer is another piece of this beautiful tactical and club-philosophy puzzle. Although it probably depends on your definition of beautiful, especially when you actually watch those PL games, ehm.

Harry Wilson, Anton Stach, and what to do now

Let’s keep discussing set-pieces, just moving a bit further up the pitch.

Anton Stach (£6.0m) took over most set-piece duties last season and did pretty well:

Harry Wilson (£6.5m) was one of Fulham’s most active takers, sharing the role with Saša Lukič (£5.0m) and Alex Iwobi (£5.5m). His arrival means Leeds now have one more quality option, especially on the right side, as Wilson is left-footed.

He also adds a fair amount of open-play creativity and ranks among the league’s best finishers.

Despite that, I would pass on him as an FPL pick in Gameweek 1, because the value isn’t really there:

• He costs £6.5m, which puts him in a crowded category full of viable picks

• We need a bit more information on his minutes

• His production from last season is tough to replicate, as he doesn’t find himself in good positions in the box too often. He offsets this with his shot volume, but it’s still too risky – a classic case of wait-and-see

Anton Stach still seems to provide enough value for £0.5m less.

This is current Solio’s xPoints for the opening 8 gameweeks:

Are there any other viable picks apart from Muharemovič?

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Dominik Szoboszlai’s (£7.0m) FPL ownership is approaching 50%, and I bet that if you read this, you at least considered him. More likely, he was in some of the drafts you saved in the app.

Popular data models that integrate historical performance data, market odds, and even contextual modelling, such as tactical changes, have him ranked among the very best picks.

This is Solio’s top 10 for the eight-gameweek horizon…

… and here’s Copilot’s:

You have surely heard the phrases “he has multiple routes to points” or “you can hold him through the fixture swing, and he’ll just tick along”.

Today, we’ll look at whether these hold up to a quick breakdown and whether we could possibly gain an edge by betting against him.

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❗ There’s some theory to cover first. I don’t recommend skipping it, but if you’re already proficient in game theory and the current Premier League landscape, and you’re here only for drafts and specific chip strategies, keep scrolling until you reach the first draft.

It’s no secret that I’m not exactly a fan of the first set of chips FPL introduced last season.

Football is a low-scoring game with a substantial element of luck, and that directly translates into all sorts of fantasy games. Chips in Gameweeks 1-19 introduce another layer of variance and distract you from the basic principles of pure player, team and fixture analysis. They superficially force action where it’s unnecessary.

But it’s there.

We can do nothing about it but adapt.

To start with, the perfect GWs 1-19 chip strategy doesn’t exist.

It’s unsolvable during pre-season (it’s more about game theory), simply because there’s so much incomplete information and moving parts*. That’s the risk of committing yourself early: it dictates your play while you’re still sharpening your opinions.

*It’s not deployed in isolation, but you a) manipulate the picks, b) it can reflect your playstyle, and c) there are moving parts like transfers, injuries, new information, etc.

Ultimately, FPL is a game of numbers – whether you like it or not – decision-making, and tilt avoidance. It’s about making sound, small decisions week after week that compound. These are more important than assessing which chip strategy is “the best one”, as EV is often much closer than you think.

There are always trade-offs.

Also, arguments like:

• it worked last year

• it worked for someone who did well

… aren’t really helpful. It’s not a signal.

Some people with no-Haaland drafts for the whole season finished top 50k, some top 1M. Some people playing WC4 finished top 1k, some in millions.

Also, it’s a different season from last year. For starters, there’s no £4m starting goalkeeper. The fixtures are different, and the landscape has changed.

Fixture difficulty rating on Solio ranked by predicted goal difference

Speaking of the landscape, it’s critical to understand it properly.

And there are levels of detail to consider:

1️⃣ Helicopter view

There’s so much uncertainty at the moment:

• 10 clubs will start the season with a new manager. It’s something you can partially assess, which is what I’m trying to do with my deep dives – it’s an informed guess based on historical data and the current context. However, it’s still a guess.

• There are 3 promoted sides, each of which is going through the classic Premier League rebuild.

• Several key players had long, gruelling World Cup-affected seasons and will be eased into the new campaign slowly, which may mean late arrivals or managed xMins. That’s a big deal.

• The transfer window will close after Gameweek 2.

• There’s a 3-week international break after Gameweek 5. We’ve never had a break this long. How will managers respond to that? Will they adjust heavily based on what they’ve seen in the first five gameweeks?

• Plus: another IB after Gameweek 10 (just two weeks long).

• Plus: the congested Christmas period begins in Gameweek 12.

2️⃣ Submarine view

This is where you go into more detail:

• Your interpretation of fixture difficulty

• Assessing how transfers affect team strength (and dynamics)

• Assessing newly promoted teams

• When two teams clash, what will the match-up specifics be (positional weaknesses, fast transitions, ability to break low blocks, set-piece attacking/defending)?

• How do tactics influence how midfielders and defenders earn DEFCONs?

There are 4 chips (duh): Bench Boost, Wildcard, Free Hit, and Triple captain.

Most of the pre-season discussion revolves around the Bench Boost, so let’s look at that first.

Early Bench Boost: What’s the appeal?

Early Bench Boost is like Taylor Swift.

On the surface, it’s extremely popular, but a few days ago, you didn’t personally know anyone who was into that. However, if you stop for a minute and think about it, you realise it’s actually quite nice.

It’s a strategy that’s certainly gaining traction among engaged managers this pre-season.

Also, if you pair early BB with an early(ish) wildcard, it allows you to build a bank of free transfers and still utilise some early-season information (though you’ll still miss some).

❗ It’s not as if playing early BB makes things a walk in the park.

It dictates your strategy too, just in a different way.

If you are reluctant to play early WC, you might be using your free transfers, the most precious thing you have in FPL, to start moving funds back to your starting XI.

And if you counter this with an early wildcard, the BB, once again, dictates how you’ll use your strongest chip.

Wildcarding early allows you to redistribute funds back to your starting XI, but how appealing is using a wildcard just to change a structure you dislike at a stage of the season when we still have less-than-ideal information? I’ll let you be the judge. Several approaches can work.

Early BB becomes more appealing if:

• having a bench full of players who can perform in most weeks suits your managerial style

• and your strength is identifying strong match-ups to rotate those players properly

Plus, if you’re mentally prepared to bench a lot of points in some weeks. Try to limit things that can mess with your head when playing FPL.

One other caveat, as I noted earlier, is that you’re building the BB with limited pre-season information.

You ideally want cheap players with favourable fixtures to extract proper value. For BB1, it’s Forest vs Leeds at home or Ipswich vs Sunderland at home, though I’m not 100% sure about quality of those match-ups at this point. For GW2, it’s Coventry vs Hull and Sunderland vs Fulham.

Okay, let’s stop theorising and look at some real-life examples, because there are many ways to manipulate early Bench Boost using different structures and plans.

Bench Boost 1, WC 6-8, FH & TC whenever

Even if you want to keep both Erling Haaland and Bruno Fernandes, you can still build a pretty good draft:

*Note that this article is not a guide to specific picks – its purpose is to show different structures and solutions. We’re not locking ourselves into specific drafts just yet.

I used the Solio Analytics tool throughout this article. You can spend a nice afternoon (or two) going through all the scenarios.

The earlier you wildcard post-IB, the fewer weeks you’re forced to play with a suboptimal bench. The problem is that, at least for me, I’d ideally want to wildcard after the IB and see a few weeks of info after the break (though I’m okay with GW6 too).

The reason is that I wonder whether managers use that long window to fix things they didn’t like during GWs 1-5. Imagine you wildcard, thinking a certain team uses a specific tactical setup and roles, only to find that setup has changed.

Yes, you likely have some FTs saved, but it’s still fixing problems. In an ideal world, you want to position yourself for more EV-hunting, less problem-fixing.

Anyway, it’s pretty doable to use just 2-3 FTs and arrive in the WC8 window with a nice bank of free transfers.

1️⃣ The longer you wait to wildcard, the higher the opportunity cost of the stacked bench (or the cost of making transfers to reduce it).
2️⃣ The sooner you wildcard, the higher the opportunity cost of having less information and potentially forcing transfers later.

If you’re okay with wildcarding in Gameweek 6, executing it should be a piece of cake. For example:

• GW2, GW3: roll

• GW4: Bruno Fernandes –> Cole Palmer, DEF → Gabriel

• GW5: roll

• GW6: wildcard

• GW7: 3 free transfers

Of course, the cheaper the BB1 bench, the longer you can postpone the WC, but there needs to be a balance. I’d focus mainly on having very safe players with good xMins in GW1.

I quite like this strategy if you want to Bench Boost in GW1 – it strikes a nice balance between having some information and not carrying too much money on the bench for too long.

Bench Boost 1, WC4, FH & TC whenever

It could look something like this:

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Alright.

I was going to continue with the newly promoted teams series, but it’s 40 degrees Celsius outside, so I decided it’s time for a leaner, more fun (sorry, Coventry) good-vibes read you can take to the beach.

I’ll discuss different approaches to building a Gameweek 1 squad in the coming weeks, so let’s keep this one super simple:

1️⃣ I’m considering an 8-GW window with a heavier emphasis on the opening 6
2️⃣ No chip plans for that period, apart from wildcarding around GWs 6-8. There’s an international break after Gameweek 5, and I’d ideally like to see a few GWs of info after that – so this is just a raw draft with an emphasis on picks themselves

The process behind the draft can be summed up as:

→ pick “essentials” first
→ add one MID I’m bullish on…
→ complete the defence and make sure not to overspend
→ pick the 3 remaining midfield players (the biggest challenge)

Let’s do it.

Goalkeepers

Antonín Kinský: The way I see it, it’s either betting on Arsenal’s defence being elite again and going for a double-up that includes David Raya (£6.0m), or picking someone from the £4.5 million category to chase value.

It’s the lowest-EV position, and I don’t want to analyse small edges and tiny xP differences for keepers priced at £5.0 and £5.5 million. 

I’m okay with Senne Lammens when, for example, you can’t fit United DEF because you’re bullish on other players. But that’s it.

Current market projections on Solio look like this:

That’s what I mean by small edges.

❓ So, the question is: Antonín Kinský or Bart Verbruggen?

Towards the end of last season, both Spurs and Brighton performed great defensively.

Following De Zerbi’s arrival, Spurs averaged the lowest xG conceded in the league across those 700 minutes (0.79 p90, per StatsBomb data via FantasyFootballScout.com). I mean, they won’t be the best defence next season, but they should be solid, and the fixtures look good.

You might still remember I was raving about Brighton’s defence in the second half of last season – since Gameweek 19, only Arsenal performed better in xGC, and they had the 5th-lowest xG per shot conceded, which is great for saves, especially for an amazing shot-stopper like Verbruggen.

But I’m picking Kinský because I’d like to own a specific Brighton defender and to spread the risk. More on that later…

Essentials

I don’t want to use that horrid E-word too often, but I’m making an exception this time.

Cristian Mosquera (£5.5m): Losing William Saliba will affect the defence to some extent, but it’s impossible to quantify the exact impact because the context changes and you can’t draw a direct comparison with the previous season. 

I believe Arsenal’s defence will continue to rank among the best in the league, and given that run of fixtures, paying £5.5 million for a piece of that is a no-brainer. 

When Saliba’s back, you’ll have enough information to solve that problem sensibly.

💡 Last season, Arsenal conceded about 0.75 xG and actual goals per 90, despite some injury problems. Solio has it by default at 0.92 goals conceded, which seems about right.

Still, they are comfortably at the top of the defensive table.

Check below:

Erling Haaland (£15.5m) & Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m): 

As I’ve discussed in my article on pricing and value, this season’s pricing can be summarised in 3 points:

• make the previous campaign’s top performers more expensive relative to the field

• increase prices for top DEFCON performers

• keep the rest of the players affordable

Owning both Haaland and Bruno doesn’t compromise squad-building in my opinion, and you’re getting two reliable captaincy options to shield all gameweeks.

Also, you cover their EO, as they are now selected in 75% and 49% of teams, respectively.

Now the one that might not be everyone’s cup of tea.

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I’m delighted to announce that Data Dribble has partnered with Solio Analytics for the 2026/27 season! 🔥

Solio is a group of really smart blokes developing an optimisation and planning tool for FPL.

I’ve been following their journey for a while, so when they launched, I immediately joined their beta-testing group and have been hooked ever since.

Solio lets you bring your own football and data understanding to decision-making – if you don’t agree with something, you can simply customise it. No hand-holding.

💡 And because putting proper context into data is a philosophy Data Dribble is built around, it only made sense to join forces.

From now on, I’ll be:

• integrating Solio’s curated FPL data and projections into my content to deliver the most value possible

• distributing 30 one-month Solio Pro codes among my annual premium subscribers* (3 per month)

*both new and existing

During pre-season, I’ll also publish a full breakdown of how I use Solio in my process, along with details on how the codes will be distributed.

If you haven’t had a chance, you can explore the free version of the Solio tool to test the core features over a 5-GW horizon with unlimited solves.

Solio Pro then unlocks full customisation, along with a set of OPTA data or a chip strategy solver for a 19-GW projection.

If you’re a nerd like me, you’re gonna love it.

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Every signup via my link earns Data Dribble a commission – one more way you can support what we’re building here and my vision for offering even more perks to our premium community.

Because, reader, we’re not done…

Expect another announcement very soon!

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After a relatively quiet week, transfer activity is ramping up.

Chelsea have officially announced Maxence Lacroix. Mamadou Sangaré is close to joining Brentford. And Fulham are reportedly buying Gonzalo García from Real Madrid.

There are also endless rumours about Bradley Barcola, Vinicius Jr., or Savinho, and it feels like another transfer 💣 is close.

But before they all blow up, let’s look at some other moves.

Hidemasa Morita, Hull’s newest addition

Look, it’s not been easy for Hull City and their fans this pre-season.

It’s one of the least likely promotions to the Premier League in recent times, largely because of how poorly their defence performed in the Championship last campaign.

Clearly, they need to be smart in the transfer market, and, with all due respect, starting the window by signing Jack Butland, Matt Targett, and Óscar Zambrano, number six from Slovenian side Maribor, felt underwhelming.

And although I contributed to that current public mood with my earlier deep dive, which bluntly stated that you should target Hull as often as you can in FPL, today I feel like giving them some credit.

Their latest signing, Hidemasa Morita (£5.0m), will hardly become an obvious FPL pick to target. But he’s certainly a feel-good player that managers and fans love.

And not just because that name sounds like a badass Japanese actor who will feature in Shōgun Season 2.

Despite being 31 and coming from Portugal, which is always tricky when it comes to how quickly a player can adapt to the demands of the Premier League, he fits the mould of a workhorse who makes the team better as a whole.

At Sporting, he played alongside Morten Hjulmand in the double pivot and was the more advanced of the pair. Even so, he contributed a lot defensively.

What stood out was how happy he was to step out – he ranked in the 90th+ percentile for tackles attempted and had an above-average success rate, making him a prolific tackler given that massive volume. He also has elite positional awareness, blocking and intercepting passes left, right and centre.

As a result, he won plenty of balls in the areas that mattered most, stopping many dangerous attacks before they could happen.

He actually had pretty strong DEFCON numbers, averaging 11 defensive contributions per 90 minutes. You would expect him to do a fair share of defending at Hull.

What makes him extremely valuable is the progression and creativity he offers. With him, it’s mainly about passing. He ranked in the 90th+ percentile for an advanced goal probability added model measuring how his distribution increased the team’s likelihood of scoring.

Not only was Morita super-involved in the build-up, playing all sorts of forward, progressive, and line-breaking passes, but he also averaged 0.15 open-play xA, which is a lot for his role. During the season, he played plenty of fantastic through balls from deep and in the final third, mostly centrally or from the left half-space.

Certainly useful for a counter-attacking team like Hull.

Now, his numbers are inflated by playing for a dominant side, which won’t be the case at Hull, plus he’s not a standout runner and not strong physically, but he’s an interesting profile and someone who came to make an immediate impact.

It doesn’t change anything in terms of FPL, but it’s perhaps a sign that Hull will try their hardest to be competitive and tackle their biggest issues. Or tackle out of it – there are also rumours they’re close to signing Florentino Luís, a destroyer-type number 6.

Hayden Hackney: A missing piece?

Another one that makes you think “why this person runs the FPL website when he doesn’t discuss any proper FPL picks in that article?”

Well, if you’re a regular Data Dribble reader, you know that context is everything (or at least a lot).

And Hayden Hackney’s (£5.5m) arrival could, potentially, have a significant impact on popular picks – Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£6.5m) and James Garner (£6.0m).

We’re talking about one of the most influential Championship players last season (he’s literally the 2025-26 Championship player of the season), and someone who will be hard for Middlesbrough to replace. 

So, what does he do?

Well, kinda everything.

He’s a 24-year-old English box-to-box midfielder who recorded 5 goals and 7 assists last season, which is roughly 3 goals and 4 assists in PL terms. Who knows. But the final product is just an extra for him.

Simply put:

• he gets the ball into the final third

• he can do it in several ways

• he can do it often

Bingo.

He can pass there, cross there, carry the ball there, dribble into the space – all at a high level. In goal probability added/VAEP metrics, he was in the 95th+ percentile for both running and passing. His dribble volume is in the 90th percentile with a solid success rate.

Hackney was also on about 40% of Middlesbrough set-pieces, which inflated volume-based metrics like passes that led directly to a shot, and also xG assisted, which rose to 0.19 p90 – another amazing number for number 8.

But if you dig deeper, you find that just 33% of key passes and 20% of xA are from set-pieces.

That’s useful to know, because at Everton he’ll likely get a minimum with KDH and Garner in the team.

His passing range is excellent.

Thanks to his running and dribbling, he can get into the box and distribute from the most dangerous areas.

Thanks to his creativity, he can play diagonal and vertical passes from the half-spaces, both close to the box and from deep. Crossing is rather average, but does it really matter?

One last thing - he averaged about 8.80 defensive contributions per 90, which is not too shabby. It’s about 0.4 fewer than Gueye and Ndiaye averaged last season. Note that Middlesbrough were the most possession-based team in the Championship. He’ll hit the threshold sometimes…

If you believe he’s a regular starter (he should be) and bump up his minutes in Solio’s market-based projection model, he becomes one of the best £5.5 million MID picks:

And not too far from KDH’s xPoints, despite being £1 million less.

Still, I’d like to see that dynamic first and would rather pay £0.5m more for Garner in Gameweek 1 (if he’s fit by then), or wait to see whether Hackney a) gets back to match fitness quickly after the injury, and produces points and b) whether KDH’s goal threat will improve with him behind.

Óscar Mingueza: Ready to bomb the box

The transfer that goes against the current trend of runners, physical & aerial monsters and players who can do a bit of everything.

Mingueza isn’t particularly good at defending. He was slightly below average (average at best) in the most vital metrics at Celta Vigo. Also, his carrying and dribbling are a bit meh – not a total disaster, but not something you’d buy him for.

But let me tell you, that man likes to kick the ball into the box.

And the good news is he creates plenty of chances that way:

From the list above, the open-play xA is the most vital metric for FPL managers, alongside deep completions (passes completed within a 20-metre radius of the goal) and deep shots assisted.

His trademark pass from the byline into the cutback zone is disgustingly accurate, creating dangerous chances. I can vividly picture Ismaïla Sarr on the end of them.

At Celta, he also often roamed in both half-spaces, spraying those throughballs into the box.

Now, he can play on both the right and the left, but Pierre Sage has Daniel Muñoz and Tyrick Mitchell available. Mitchell is one of the best defensive wing-backs in the league, and Muñoz… well, we all know Muñoz. So, his expected minutes are uncertain, and he’s more of a squad player right now.

Well, at least you know he exists, and that if one of his teammates gets injured, the wing-backs’ chance-creation rate will be absurd.

FPL is a game of information, after all.

That’s all for today.

See you very soon!

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I’m happy to announce that Data Dribble has partnered with FPL Copilot for the 2026/27 season! 🤖

Spiros, the brains behind the project, spent the whole off-season rebuilding his planning and analytical tool, which 33,000 FPL managers used last campaign, and introduced a sharper Copilot, an updated model, and some new cool features.

One thing that surprised me about running Data Dribble is how many of you guys are not playing for overall rank, but to win your mini-leagues.

Copilot can help you generate some ideas – the mini-league section not only gives you a lot of useful information, but allows you to run special solves solely for your mini-league.

Don’t worry, I won’t tell your mates. 

Another feature I like is the expected points breakdown, which shows exactly how your players are scoring points.

Pretty useful for analysing players:

What are the perks for our community?

• I’ll integrate Copilot FPL data and projections into my content to deliver the most value possible

• Every annual premium subscriber, whether existing or new, will receive a free 30-day code to use whenever you like – you can redeem it to perfect your Gameweek 1 draft, navigate the hectic Christmas period, or use it towards the end of the season to clinch that mini-league win.

❗ I will send the codes to you early next week by email.

Try FPL Copilot

If you consider giving Copilot a go, every sign-up via my link anywhere on this website earns Data Dribble a commission – it’s another way to support the project and my vision of offering a bundle of perks to our premium community.

Thank you!

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Alright, reader.

After last week’s deep dive into what Andoni Iraola will bring to Liverpool and what his arrival means for our FPL endeavours, it only makes sense to follow up with Bournemouth, who are preparing for the era under Marco Rose.

The German’s managerial career can be split into two parts.

The great one.

And the other… well, you’ll see in a bit.

I won’t discuss his earlier years too much, but so you know the lore, here are a few bullet points:

• Rose put himself on the football map as Salzburg manager during the 17/18 and 18/19 seasons, when he won everything in Austria…

• … and made a deep run in the Europa League, beating Real Sociedad, Borussia Dortmund, and Lazio before losing to Olympique Marseille in the semi-finals

• He then spent two seasons at Borussia Mönchengladbach, guiding them into the Champions League. After finishing 2nd in a group with Real Madrid, Inter Milan, and Shakhtar Donetsk, the draw wasn’t meant to get any easier – they played Manchester City in the first knockout round and were eliminated

• After that, he managed Borussia Dortmund. The spell lasted exactly one season, and they finished 2nd in the Bundesliga (the Haaland & Bellingham era)

The following season, Rose became head coach at RB Leipzig, where the fun began…

Marco Rose at his managerial peak

Alright, spoiler alert.

RB were very competitive during Rose’s debut season:

And let me tell you, Rose making life tough for both Bayern and Borussia was simply because his team played fantastic football.

With fantastic players.

When you look at the starting eleven that beat Bayern in the penultimate Bundesliga gameweek, it included Joško Gvardiol, Dominik Szoboszlai, Dani Olmo, Konrad Laimer, Christopher Nkunku, and Amadour Haïdara.

Over those 29 league games with Rose at the helm, RB were tied for the best expected points (xPoints) with Bayern, largely due to dominant defensive performances: they conceded both the fewest non-penalty xG and the fewest actual non-penalty goals.

Their core principle was to congest the pitch centrally, and to keep short distances between players to recover the ball quickly, and make it extremely difficult for opponents to progress through those valuable areas.

💡 Another key part of this was intense counter-pressing: in other words, Leipzig’s high defensive line was instructed to win the ball back immediately after losing it high up the pitch.

The purpose of the press was to force the ball wide and then apply pressure on the receiving player. It was a nightmare not only for opponents who tried to attack slowly, but also for counter-attacking sides, because even if they bypassed the initial press, other Red Bull players were close enough to stop the break.

As a result, Leipzig conceded very few dangerous shots.

1️⃣ Against slow attacks, their defence was on a par with Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen.

2️⃣ They conceded just two goals from counters, the fewest that season.

3️⃣ And when someone tried to re-press them, it was a battle they couldn’t win, as they simply couldn’t get good chances in the box even when they won the ball – Leipzig conceded just one goal from counter-press.

Hold that thought, because we’ll come back to it.

In the final third of the pitch, Red Bull’s system was built on direct forward play and fast transitions within a narrow, attacking 4-2-2-2 formation.

Whereas both Bayern and Borussia scored 40+ goals over the season from slow, positional attacks, RB scored only about half that number, but breaks and gegen-pressing made up for it: no other team produced as many dangerous shots from such situations.

Their 0.15 xG per shot from breaks is clear evidence of that.

However, the decline began as early as the 23/24 season.

The downfall

You could put some of the blame on the loss of several key players – the lure of the Premier League and Bayern is hard to resist, so RB said goodbye to Gvardiol, Szoboszlai, Nkunku and Laimer.

At the same time, Luis Openda and Benjamin Šeško combined for a whopping 38 goals, and Xavi Simons had one of the best seasons of his career.

Still, something was brewing beneath the surface, and it was meant to eventually blow.

It was the Bundesliga campaign that saw Xabi Alonso pull off a title-winning unbeaten run, and Marco Rose (and Red Bull) suddenly stopped being among the hottest topics.

There were still things to like about the team: their defence remained firmly among the best, and those fast transitions still worked well, with only Leverkusen scoring more goals from them.

At the same time, they dropped to 4th in xPoints, far from both Bayern and Bayer.

They suddenly looked much less dominant.

They played with the ball less, became even more direct in possession, the pressing intensity dropped significantly, and the counter-press became less effective, which was probably the worst indicator of all. The share of their possessions when they won the ball high up the pitch shortly after losing it dropped by almost 20%.

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Alright, reader.

FPL is fully back, so we can finally compare players’ values, make our drafts, and do all the fun stuff that comes with it.

The theme of the upcoming season’s pricing is pretty clear and can be summed up in three points:

1️⃣ Bump up the prices of the previous campaign’s top performers: Erling Haaland (£15.5m), Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m), and Gabriel (£8.0m)

2️⃣ Increase the prices of all the best DEFCON defenders

3️⃣ Make the rest of the players relatively affordable

Anyway, this subsequently creates a certain dynamic:

→ You can exploit DEFs by evaluating discrepancies in the number of defensive contributions they will earn compared with last season, or in how players new to the Premier League will perform

→ Pricing makes it very difficult to own all three players mentioned above without compromising your structure and flexibility too much. To get a better feel for it, I tried to create a random Haaland+Bruno+Gabriel draft:

It’s not that bad, but it certainly lacks balance and firepower.

You’d need to nail pretty much all your picks to have a chance of it performing well.

→ There’s plenty of wiggle room to find underpriced “value picks”, which is always nice and is an essence of FPL, at least for me. It’s also extremely important to be early on those players before they become bandwagons – the template, especially in defence, might emerge rather quickly.

As always, the midfield is a good place to look for them during the season, as dynamics can shift quickly (role changes, injuries, etc.).

I didn’t notice any controversial positional decision, like last year’s Jarrod Bowen being added to the game as FWD.

Anyway, today I plan to review all positions and highlight prices that have caught my interest for various reasons. As we gather more information on transfers and pre-season minutes, we will refine our GW1 pool of viable picks.

What looks good now might not be viable in Gameweek 1.

Note: Let’s not overemphasise fixtures at this stage. It doesn’t make much sense to evaluate them with so many transfers still to be announced across the Premier League. I will instead focus on each player’s value relative to others.

Note 2: Many players featured in the late stages of the World Cup, and their involvement in Gameweek 1 is questionable. It could even be 20 or so players.

We don’t know yet.

Defenders: Did they strike a balance?

Apart from Gabriel, who averaged 6.9 points per start last season, defenders are capped at £6.5 million, compared with £6 million last season.

• There are three of them: Jurriën Timber, Virgil van Dijk, and Nico O’Reilly.

I don’t have a problem with that, because each of them can realistically become the highest-scoring defender if the stars align.

At the same time, you need strong conviction that it will happen, and because there’s a fair share of uncertainty about Arsenal (Saliba out, players late from the WC), Liverpool (new manager, likely new starting CB), and Manchester City (new manager, new dynamics players-wise), I don’t see many managers starting the season with them.

• The £6 million category includes: William Saliba, Maxence Lacroix, James Tarkowski, Marc Guéhi, Matheus Nunes, Marcos Senesi.

This one is a mixed bag.

William Saliba is injured and doesn’t provide much attacking threat. Maxence Lacroix will play in Xabi Alonso’s system, which is focused on control in all phases of the play*. And Senesi might not even start regularly and is one of those who spent ages in the World Cup.

Manchester City duo make sense.

James Tarkowski too, given his typology and how overpowered DEFCONs are.

*However, if it’s really a back 3, Lacroix will be CCB. That means he’ll do a fair share of active defending and is amazing in the air, so I wouldn’t rule him out just yet. But yeah, his defcons will more likely go down.

The £5.5m bracket is much more bloated:

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Whether you like it or not, you will come across plenty of DEFCON content this season, and the Data Dribble is no exception. If you read my series on how new coaches will change the way clubs play this season, you already know.

But man, the thing I love analysing most is goals and where they could come from.

And I see them in both Morgan Rogers (£7.5m) and Alejandro Garnacho (£6.0m), provided certain conditions are met…

For Morgan Rogers, the left is the right place to be

Morgan Rogers was quite a frustrating pick last season.

It seemed he either a) ran super hot or b) did absolutely nothing.

Nothing in between.

The key with him was to pay attention to his role within the team and how it affected his performance. It was a great example of how tracking changes in the team’s dynamics and positional trends could help you predict players’ outputs.

Now, I have some bad news for you.

Clubs don’t buy players to help you do well in the Fantasy Premier League.

I wish they did, but they don’t.

Chelsea bought Rogers for his receiving, the threat he creates with his passes in both the build-up and the final third, and because his first instinct is to play the ball forward and worry about the rest later.

The fact that he does so in the final third is important for FPL, as it creates assists – Rogers recorded 16 of them in the last two seasons, not including fantasy assists.

But you also want goals. There were 10 last campaign (8 the season before that), so the question is whether it’s repeatable.

When you look at the shot map, doubts start to creep in:

Those three goals outside the box, xG overperformance, and subpar centrality… are not good signs.

But when you look at the shot map from the previous season, dots start to connect:

Some more goals from distance, this time from relatively few attempts, and another xG overperformance.

Across about 8,000 Premier League minutes, Rogers has been a great finisher, with about 40% xG overperformance, though this should probably be adjusted because he didn’t exactly shine during 3,000 minutes in the Championship.

Also, 8,000 is a solid sample size, though not massive, so some luck is still involved. All in all, he can strike the ball…

And there’s one position where Rogers poses a much greater goal threat:

On the left (2,100 minutes, data per 90 minutes):

• 2.20 non-penalty shots

• 0.25 non-penalty xG

• 0.40 non-penalty goals

• 0.23 xG assisted

Centrally (3,600):

• 1.80 non-penalty shots

• 0.15 non-penalty xG

• 0.17 non-penalty goals

• 0.18 xG assisted

On the right (1,100)

• 0.80 non-penalty shots

• 0.10 non-penalty xG

• 0 non-penalty goals

• 0.20 xG assisted

He likes to cut in and is right-footed, so it’s not rocket science to see where that xG overperformance comes from. But it’s not only that he can score bangers from his favourite move – his attempts are higher quality and more frequent, and he plays better final passes there.

❗ Also, it’s not just about the final product.

Playing on the left, Rogers posts much better results in advanced VAEP/goal-probability-added metrics that track his on-ball actions and measure how they increase the team’s chance of scoring. That goes for his passing, carrying, and dribbling. 

While he’s in the 80th percentile for most of these metrics when on the left, he drops below average centrally, which is a big deal if you ask me.

Based on how Chelsea’s squad looks, I think you can realistically expect Xabi Alonso to play Rogers in his most natural position, either as a left winger or a left #10, depending on the formation. Of course, there might be a 4-2-3-1 with Rogers central, but I hope that’s not the case.

Rogers in his natural habitat would be great news for FPL managers, because he’s simply a different beast there. Having as many midfielders as possible who can both score and assist is good for the game.

What’s less good news is that Rogers is priced at £7.5 million, which is probably £0.5 – £1 million lower than it should be if he’s LW. I’m writing this only half an hour after the FPL launched for the new season, so I need to let it sink in. 

My annual “first impression on pricing and value” article will be out tomorrow.

In the meantime, you can check my Xabi Alonso & Chelsea deep dive I wrote this pre-season. It includes a free section:

Alejandro Garnacho + Unai Emery: What if this works?

Now, this won’t be a popular topic.

But I still think there’s so much potential, goals, and assists in Alejandro Garnacho (£6m).

It’s hard to articulate what needs to happen if you’re not inside the club and don’t know the player personally. But let’s assume that, with Garnacho, it’s about playing under a coach you respect, who is straightforward with you, builds your confidence, and trusts you.

I saw it firsthand during my career in professional football – with some players, it’s difficult to build that trust, but once it’s there...

Last season, Aston Villa played Emi Buendia on the left, a very different player.

He’s not someone who’d attack the box with his runs, get into good shooting positions, or be a great runner in terms of creating a threat in the final third.

In some of his previous Villa seasons, the Argentinian proved to be great 1v1, had great vision for the final pass, and generally won a lot of balls, but last season was probably his worst.

Garnacho was between 17 and 20 years old during his Manchester United 6,000-minute spell and still:

1️⃣ ranked in the 95th+ percentile for threat generated by runs
2️⃣ averaged 3.10 non-penalty shots with 0.30 non-penalty xG (both 90th+ percentile)
3️⃣ … and added about average xG assisted

The finishing wasn’t his strong suit, to say the least, but it was okay given the sheer volume of good chances he had. Poor finishers can still have great careers. Just look at Gabriel Jesus.

He simply carries the ball into the box and then shoots close to goal. And that’s what you want to see from a player as an FPL manager, really.

What’s crazy is that at Chelsea, it was a totally different Garnacho. Although he kept his carrying threat, he also produced some crazy passing numbers:

He recorded 4 assists in about 1,400 minutes, but it could have been much more. Looking at clips, most of his creativity came from distributing inside the box, but what might surprise you is that he also took quite a few amazing crosses from deep, which was unexpected, to say the least.

Unlock that energy in him, unlock all his creative and goal-scoring potential, and you have a player who can repay you with decisive moments.

❗ The only caveat is that this is a season-long loan deal with an obligation to buy if “certain criteria are met”, with those criteria likely to be a set number of starts. That makes this an even firmer wait-and-see in FPL.

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That’s all for today.

See you soon!

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Liverpool are fresh off a weird season marked by a series of bizarre events, injuries, a fair share of bad luck, and some poor performances that ultimately led to the sacking of Arne Slot, who departed just one season after the title-winning campaign.

The general consensus among those who tried to pinpoint exactly what went wrong with the Reds is that they were too passive and too scared out of possession.

Although this was partly true, it’s also been blown out of proportion, as the data don’t exactly support that claim. They were still pretty intense and created a lot of good shots from fast transitions and high turnovers – yes, it wasn’t an elite result, but they were strong in those areas.

I guess it wasn’t enough, and the fact that performance can be heavily affected by things that are simply out of your control wasn’t too sexy a storyline.

Anyway, Liverpool will now get a fair share of intensity from Andoni Iraola. That’s for sure.

Intensity, pressing, and re-pressing are likely the three most frequently mentioned words when discussing his philosophy.

Later in the article, we’ll discuss a lot of specific data, but to set the tone, let’s look at the metric that perfectly illustrates Iraola’s approach.

You might come across different versions of it online, but this one is from The Athletic and shows how many shots Bournemouth produced shortly after winning the ball in the final third of the pitch since the 2023/2024 season:

But first things first – let’s talk about defence…

Iraola can control his chaos

Last season showed that Iraola isn’t just some madman who demands his players be relentless all the time, but can adapt to new orders.

I do feel this tends to be overlooked.

Bournemouth entered the previous season without Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez, and Illia Zabarnyi. Kerkez and Zabarnyi were two of the three most-used players in the 24/25 season, and if you sum the minutes of all three, it’s close to 10,000.

Despite heavy personnel changes, a commitment to an attacking philosophy, or Djordje Petrovič going through a poor run of shot-stopping for a substantial part of the season – before returning to his Strasbourg level towards the end – they produced some intriguing defensive numbers.

While they played a high defensive line (on a par with Liverpool) and applied the most intense press in the Premier League in 24/25, there was an evident effort to stabilise and allow the team to adapt to new players.

They dropped to a mid-block last season and, at times, stepped off the gas in pressing intensity, while still remaining among the fiercest teams in the final third.

Even though Iraola’s approach is to create chaos, it’s certainly not chaos without rules.

Along with a lower defensive block than usual, there was a compact structure that allowed them to win loose balls often and avoid being too exposed when losing the ball in their defensive half, a common flaw among many attacking teams.

And it showed in the data:

• They had the lowest xG conceded per game (0.40) and xG conceded per shot (0.09) when defending in a low block against slow, sustained attacks

• They were especially sound in home games, where they conceded just 4 non-penalty goals throughout the season with avg. 0.80 xG conceded, similar to Arsenal

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